{"id":1180,"date":"2026-09-28T02:59:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T00:59:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/olimpia-milano-virtus-bologne-pronostic-2026-09-29\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T23:36:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T21:36:49","slug":"olimpia-milano-virtus-bologne-pronostic-2026-09-29","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/basket\/euroleague\/olimpia-milano-virtus-bologne-pronostic-2026-09-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Olimpia Milano \u2013 Virtus Bologne : la Supercoupe suffit-elle \u00e0 fixer le prix du derby ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le derby italien revient \u00e0 l&#8217;Unipol Forum avec les deux clubs \u00e0 0-1 et une infirmerie qui a grandi lundi des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s. La Supercoupe a d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9partag\u00e9 les deux \u00e9quipes en septembre ; les cotes, elles, n&#8217;ont quasiment pas boug\u00e9 depuis. Mon pari pris dimanche sur la Virtus tient, \u00e0 petite mise.<\/p>\n<h2>Milan tourne au ralenti avant sa double-semaine<\/h2>\n<p>Dimanche, l&#8217;Olimpia s&#8217;est impos\u00e9e 83-79 dans la douleur contre Trieste, en m\u00e9nageant Peters et Booker. \u00c0 Belgrade pour l&#8217;ouverture, Carlik Jones lui a fait <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/euroleague\/news\/carlik-jones-shines-as-partizan-romps-to-emphatic-win-over-milan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">20 points et 10 passes<\/a> : la protection du ballon reste le chantier de Peppe Poeta. Et le calendrier ne pardonne pas : la Virtus mardi, Baskonia vendredi.<\/p>\n<h2>Sans Kokila, le style Mumbr\u00fa perd son ancrage<\/h2>\n<p>Kevin Kokila, touch\u00e9 au biceps f\u00e9moral de la cuisse droite (l\u00e9sion de grade 1), manquera le derby ; les sources divergent entre deux et quatre semaines, mais l&#8217;absence de mardi est certaine, selon la <a href=\"https:\/\/basketnews.com\/leagues\/25-euroleague\/injured.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">liste des bless\u00e9s de l&#8217;EuroLeague<\/a>. La Virtus perd son ancrage int\u00e9rieur juste quand son identit\u00e9 s&#8217;affirme : \u00e0 Varese dimanche, la presse bolognaise a salu\u00e9 une premi\u00e8re mi-temps de jeu rapide et de tirs pr\u00e9coces, la marque de Mumbr\u00fa. Reste la panne d&#8217;Istanbul : quand un int\u00e9rieur adverse verrouille le rebond d\u00e9fensif comme Braxton Key, les d\u00e9parts rapides meurent.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Garrison Mathews, recrue \u00e0 l&#8217;aile de Milan : aucun match officiel cette saison, souci musculaire ; Peppe Poeta tranchera au shootaround de mardi matin.<\/li>\n<li>Chez Milan aussi, Akele est quasi certainement hors des douze, et Tonut, Flaccadori et Diop restent en ballottage.<\/li>\n<li>C\u00f4t\u00e9 Virtus, Casarin figure hors des douze et deux autres exclusions sont attendues.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Les trois r\u00e9sultats partag\u00e9s par les deux clubs cette saison :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Affiche<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Supercoupe d&#8217;Italie, demi-finale<\/td>\n<td>Milano \u2013 Virtus<\/td>\n<td>80-71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EuroLeague, premi\u00e8re journ\u00e9e<\/td>\n<td>Partizan \u2013 Milano<\/td>\n<td>92-76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EuroLeague, premi\u00e8re journ\u00e9e<\/td>\n<td>Fenerbah\u00e7e \u2013 Virtus<\/td>\n<td>78-68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 3,30, je garde la Virtus sans la renforcer<\/h2>\n<p>Victoire de la Virtus \u00e0 3,30 chez 888Sport, 0,5 unit\u00e9 (50 $) : c&#8217;est mon pronostic, enregistr\u00e9 dans la nuit de dimanche \u00e0 lundi, et je le garde. Le march\u00e9 n&#8217;a quasiment pas boug\u00e9 depuis : Milano reste \u00e0 1,391 chez 1xbet, la Virtus cote 3,20 chez BetMGM. \u00c0 3,30, ce prix suppose une victoire bolognaise une fois sur trois \u00e0 peine. Je la place \u00e0 33 % : les cinq derniers derbis europ\u00e9ens donnent Milano devant 3-2 seulement, et le rythme de Mumbr\u00fa peut casser n&#8217;importe quel plan milanais.<\/p>\n<p>Sans Kokila, ce pari perd un appui : je ne le renforce pas, la mise reste \u00e0 0,5 unit\u00e9. Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> cadre ce niveau de risque ; le r\u00e9sultat ira dans mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, d\u00e9faite comprise. 18+ : ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>87-85 : Devon Hall d\u00e9cide \u00e0 la sir\u00e8ne<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;Olimpia Milano a creus\u00e9 dix points d&#8217;\u00e9cart au premier quart (30-20), la Virtus Bologne est pass\u00e9e devant \u00e0 la fin du troisi\u00e8me (66-67), et Devon Hall a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 le derby sur la derni\u00e8re possession. Aliou Diarra a fini \u00e0 15 points et \u00e0 la meilleure \u00e9valuation du match (22) c\u00f4t\u00e9 Virtus, qui a jou\u00e9 20 passes d\u00e9cisives pour 12 \u00e0 Milan. Une altercation apr\u00e8s la sir\u00e8ne, autour de Garrison Mathews, a achev\u00e9 une soir\u00e9e serr\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Ma demi-mise sur la Virtus, prise \u00e0 3,30 chez 888Sport, est perdue : 50 $. La Virtus a fait le chemin pendant trois quarts, menait d&#8217;un point \u00e0 l&#8217;entame du dernier, et s&#8217;est inclin\u00e9e sur la possession finale. La cl\u00f4ture \u00e0 3,26 n&#8217;avait rien chang\u00e9 : ce derby se jouait sur un panier, et il est all\u00e9 \u00e0 Milan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L&#8217;Olimpia Milano bat la Virtus Bologne 87-85 sur un tir de Devon Hall \u00e0 la sir\u00e8ne, et ma demi-mise sur la Virtus \u00e0 3,30 est perdue (50 $).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":2345,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Olimpia Milano contre Virtus Bologne : mon pronostic visiteur \u00e0 3,30 chez 888Sport tient. Sans Kokila, la Virtus joue petit, mise \u00e0 0,5 unit\u00e9.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Olimpia Milano","ba_away_name":"Virtus Bologne","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-09-29 18:30:00","ba_venue":"Unipol Forum","ba_match_key":"api-sports:basketball:508597","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[24,95],"class_list":["post-1180","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-basket","ba_sport-euroleague"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Olimpia Milano \u2013 Virtus Bologne : la Supercoupe suffit-elle \u00e0 fixer le prix du derby ? &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Olimpia Milano contre Virtus Bologne : mon pronostic visiteur \u00e0 3,30 chez 888Sport tient. 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