{"id":12523,"date":"2026-10-26T19:45:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T18:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/stade-francais-la-rochelle-le-marche-prefere-le-neuvieme-au-quatrieme\/"},"modified":"2026-10-26T19:45:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T18:45:41","slug":"stade-francais-la-rochelle-pronostic-2026-10-31","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/stade-francais-la-rochelle-pronostic-2026-10-31\/","title":{"rendered":"Stade Fran\u00e7ais &#8211; La Rochelle : le march\u00e9 pr\u00e9f\u00e8re le neuvi\u00e8me au quatri\u00e8me"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Samedi \u00e0 Jean Bouin, le neuvi\u00e8me du Top 14 re\u00e7oit le quatri\u00e8me, et le march\u00e9 n&#8217;a pas h\u00e9sit\u00e9 une seconde : Stade Fran\u00e7ais 1,26, La Rochelle 4,565. Sur le handicap, on demande aux visiteurs plus de dix points de retard. Un favori net, donc, pour une \u00e9quipe qui compte quatre points de moins que son adversaire du soir au classement g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. C&#8217;est ce renversement de hi\u00e9rarchie que je veux regarder de pr\u00e8s.<\/p>\n<p>Les chiffres, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.20minutes.fr\/sport\/rugby\/4257386-20261026-top-14-classement-apres-7e-journee-championnat-france-rugby-xv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">apr\u00e8s la 7e journ\u00e9e<\/a> :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><\/th>\n<th>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/th>\n<th>Stade Rochelais<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Classement<\/td>\n<td>9e, 14 points<\/td>\n<td>4e, 18 points<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Dernier match<\/td>\n<td>Battu 16-8 \u00e0 Castres, sans bonus d\u00e9fensif<\/td>\n<td>Battu 19-25 par l&#8217;UBB \u00e0 Deflandre<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Meilleure cote victoire<\/td>\n<td>1,26 (Betano)<\/td>\n<td>4,565 (1xbet)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Paris joue \u00e0 domicile, pas en confiance<\/h2>\n<p>Le Stade Fran\u00e7ais sort de deux sorties rat\u00e9es. Samedi \u00e0 Castres, un <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/24\/top-14-au-bout-de-lennui-le-castres-olympique-remporte-le-bras-de-fer-face-au-stade-francais-et-reprend-confiance-13618847.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16-8 laborieux<\/a> : match brouillon, p\u00e9nalit\u00e9s rat\u00e9es, aucun bonus d\u00e9fensif. La semaine pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, en Champions Cup, une lourde d\u00e9faite chez les Bulls, \u00e0 Pretoria, avec un groupe remani\u00e9. Trois victoires et quatre d\u00e9faites, 155 points marqu\u00e9s, 174 encaiss\u00e9s : le bilan d&#8217;une \u00e9quipe moyenne du championnat, favorite \u00e0 1,26. \u00c0 ce prix-l\u00e0, le march\u00e9 ne juge pas Paris : il juge l&#8217;\u00e9tat rochelais.<\/p>\n<h2>Neuf bless\u00e9s et un ouvreur dans le flou<\/h2>\n<p>Le dernier point infirmerie publi\u00e9 par le club date de la veille du match contre l&#8217;UBB : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.staderochelais.com\/actualites\/news\/le-point-infirmerie-a-la-veille-de-l-ubb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">neuf joueurs bless\u00e9s<\/a>, et rien de publi\u00e9 depuis pour le d\u00e9placement \u00e0 Paris. La crainte du moment s&#8217;appelle Antoine Hastoy : touch\u00e9 \u00e0 la cheville \u00e0 la 50e minute face \u00e0 l&#8217;UBB, sorti en boitant, il a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.quinzemondial.com\/xv-de-france\/xv-de-france-apres-falatea-et-gazzotti-la-blessure-dhastoy-fait-craindre-le-pire-829454\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">d\u00e9clar\u00e9 forfait pour le rassemblement du XV de France<\/a>, o\u00f9 Louis Le Brun le remplace. Sa pr\u00e9sence samedi n&#8217;est pas assur\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Ajoutez la fen\u00eatre internationale : le rassemblement des Bleus s&#8217;ouvre cette semaine \u00e0 Marcoussis, six Rochelais ont \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9s retenus pour le Championnat des Nations, et leur disponibilit\u00e9 le 31 octobre reste \u00e0 v\u00e9rifier. Quatri\u00e8me du Top 14 avec 18 points, malgr\u00e9 deux revers \u00e0 domicile dont celui du dimanche contre l&#8217;UBB (19-25), le club a d\u00e9j\u00e0 affich\u00e9 la suite : \u00ab prochaine \u00e9tape, Paris \u00bb.<\/p>\n<h2>Une cote qui n&#8217;a pas boug\u00e9 d&#8217;un pouce<\/h2>\n<p>1,26 chez Betano depuis l&#8217;ouverture, sans la moindre variation : le march\u00e9 s&#8217;est fix\u00e9 avant m\u00eame les compositions, qui ne sont pas publi\u00e9es. Sur le handicap principal, dix points et demi s\u00e9parent les deux \u00e9quipes : Stade Fran\u00e7ais -10,5 \u00e0 1,90, La Rochelle +10,5 \u00e0 1,833, chez 1xbet. Deux bookmakers cotent la ligne, avec 7,7 % de marge.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : La Rochelle +10,5<\/h2>\n<p>Je prends La Rochelle +10,5 \u00e0 1,833 chez 1xbet, cote relev\u00e9e ce lundi. Ligne \u00e0 demi-point, sans remboursement : victoire, nul ou d\u00e9faite de dix points au plus, le pari est gagn\u00e9 (+20,83 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s) ; d\u00e9faite de onze points ou plus, il est perdu (-25 $).<\/p>\n<p>Je donne 57 % de chances \u00e0 La Rochelle de couvrir cet \u00e9cart, le march\u00e9 51 %. La lecture est la m\u00eame, l&#8217;ampleur diff\u00e8re : pr\u00e9f\u00e9rer Paris, oui ; les voir larges de dix points et demi, non. L&#8217;\u00e9cart est trop fin pour rester net une fois ma probabilit\u00e9 temp\u00e9r\u00e9e par celle du march\u00e9 : 0,25 unit\u00e9, la mise minimale. Et sur une ligne cot\u00e9e par deux bookmakers seulement, avec 7,7 % de marge, on ne charge pas un pari. Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> d\u00e9taille comment une mise se calcule ; ce pari rejoint les autres sur mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neuvi\u00e8me contre quatri\u00e8me, et le Stade Fran\u00e7ais est \u00e0 1,26 : le march\u00e9 voit Paris large de dix points et demi. Je prends La Rochelle +10,5 \u00e0 1,833, mise minimale, sans avantage net.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12526,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Stade Fran\u00e7ais favori \u00e0 1,26 face au 4e du Top 14 : mon pronostic Stade Fran\u00e7ais - La Rochelle, analyse et pari La Rochelle +10,5 \u00e0 1,833 chez 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Stade Fran\u00e7ais","ba_away_name":"La Rochelle","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-31 15:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54130","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pi0zaqwxqbn","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Stade Rochelais +10,5","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":10.5,"odds":1.833,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":20.83,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-10-26 18:45:46","settled_at":"","probability":0.57,"p_market":0.5112,"p_used":0.5406,"edge":-0.0091,"market_margin":0.0769,"market_books":2,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-12523","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stade Fran\u00e7ais &#8211; 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