{"id":12543,"date":"2026-10-26T19:49:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T18:49:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/bordeaux-begles-bayonne-le-dauphin-revient-a-chaban-deuxieme-ligne-en-chantier\/"},"modified":"2026-10-26T19:49:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T18:49:53","slug":"bordeaux-begles-bayonne-pronostic-2026-10-31","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/bordeaux-begles-bayonne-pronostic-2026-10-31\/","title":{"rendered":"Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles &#8211; Bayonne : le dauphin revient \u00e0 Chaban, deuxi\u00e8me ligne en chantier"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dimanche \u00e0 Marcel-Deflandre, Bordeaux B\u00e8gles a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ubbrugby.com\/actualites\/10568-l-ubb-s-impose-a-la-rochelle-et-grimpe-a-la-deuxieme-place-du-top-14.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gagn\u00e9 25-19 et grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 la deuxi\u00e8me place<\/a> du Top 14. La facture a \u00e9t\u00e9 sal\u00e9e : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dna.fr\/sport\/2026\/10\/25\/top-14-bordeaux-begles-profite-de-l-indiscipline-rochelaise-pour-s-imposer-et-recoller-a-toulouse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trois forfaits annonc\u00e9s \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00e9chauffement<\/a> (Pkhakadze, Buros, Falatea), puis Zapedowski et Gazzotti sortis sur blessure en premi\u00e8re p\u00e9riode. Samedi, l&#8217;UBB retrouve Chaban-Delmas apr\u00e8s trois week-ends de d\u00e9placements et re\u00e7oit un Bayonne qui doit se racheter.<\/p>\n<p>Le face-\u00e0-face apr\u00e8s la 7e journ\u00e9e :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><\/th>\n<th>Bordeaux B\u00e8gles<\/th>\n<th>Aviron Bayonnais<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Classement apr\u00e8s la J7<\/td>\n<td>2e, 23 points<\/td>\n<td>6e, 18 points<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Dernier match<\/td>\n<td>Victoire 25-19 \u00e0 La Rochelle<\/td>\n<td>Battu 27-31 par Lyon, apr\u00e8s avoir men\u00e9 24-12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Meilleure cote victoire<\/td>\n<td>1,18 (Betano)<\/td>\n<td>5,5 (1xbet)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Le dauphin rentre \u00e0 Chaban, deuxi\u00e8me ligne en chantier<\/h2>\n<p>Le retour \u00e0 la maison a un go\u00fbt particulier : trois week-ends loin de Chaban (Clermont, Gloucester en Champions Cup, La Rochelle), et un pack qui a voyag\u00e9 plus vite que les corps ne se r\u00e9parent. Shaun Sowerby, charg\u00e9 des avants, parle d&#8217;un pack \u00ab soumis \u00e0 des blessures \u00bb, d&#8217;une deuxi\u00e8me ligne <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/25\/top-14-ca-tape-fort-ca-tape-dur-cest-tres-feroce-lunion-bordeaux-begles-se-deplace-a-la-rochelle-avec-une-deuxieme-ligne-tres-exposee-13615103.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab tr\u00e8s expos\u00e9e \u00bb<\/a>, et annonce quatre retours de blessure, dont Adam Coleman, \u00ab sur la feuille de match \u00bb. Ga\u00ebtan Barlot, lui, file vers une nouvelle op\u00e9ration des cervicales.<\/p>\n<p>La fen\u00eatre internationale s&#8217;ajoute : le rassemblement des Bleus s&#8217;est ouvert lundi \u00e0 Marcoussis, et la J7 s&#8217;est achev\u00e9e sur trois joueurs convoqu\u00e9s par Galthi\u00e9 sortis bless\u00e9s pendant La Rochelle-UBB. Statuts de Gazzotti, Zapedowski, Pkhakadze, Buros et Falatea : \u00e0 trancher d&#8217;ici samedi.<\/p>\n<h2>Bayonne s&#8217;est pris une le\u00e7on, et le sait<\/h2>\n<p>Samedi \u00e0 Jean-Dauger, l&#8217;Aviron a perdu 27-31 contre Lyon apr\u00e8s avoir men\u00e9 24-12, bonus d\u00e9fensif pour tout secours. Matthieu Uhila l&#8217;a dit cash : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ici.fr\/nouvelle-aquitaine\/pyrenees-atlantiques-64\/bayonne\/vide-o-on-s-est-pris-pour-d-autres-peste-matthieu-uhila-apres-la-defaite-de-l-aviron-bayonnais-contre-lyon-3228780\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab on s&#8217;est pris pour d&#8217;autres \u00bb<\/a>. Ged Fraser, le manager, parle de \u00ab rappel \u00e0 l&#8217;ordre \u00bb et demande \u00e0 son \u00e9quipe d&#8217;aller \u00ab \u00e0 Bordeaux avec un tout autre visage \u00bb. Rodrigo Bruni, forfait contre Lyon, et Mat\u00e9o Carreras, sorti de l&#8217;entra\u00eenement mercredi dernier, sont les deux incertitudes du moment.<\/p>\n<p>Le calendrier ne pardonne pas : deux d\u00e9placements p\u00e9rilleux, Bordeaux puis La Rochelle, et un objectif assum\u00e9 de \u00ab r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer des points sur l&#8217;un des deux \u00bb. La r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur existe pourtant : Bayonne a gagn\u00e9 17-20 au Racing le 26 septembre. Depuis, deux d\u00e9faites, \u00e0 Toulouse (45-34) puis devant Lyon.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,18, le march\u00e9 n&#8217;a laiss\u00e9 aucun doute<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;UBB est \u00e0 1,18 chez Betano, environ cinq chances sur six, et la cote a durci depuis l&#8217;ouverture (1,26). Sur le handicap principal, douze points et demi : UBB -12,5 \u00e0 1,85, Bayonne +12,5 \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, ligne relev\u00e9e ce lundi. Un seul bookmaker la cote, avec 6,7 % de marge.<\/p>\n<p>Douze points et demi pour une \u00e9quipe qui reconstruit sa deuxi\u00e8me ligne en pleine fen\u00eatre internationale, face \u00e0 une \u00e9quipe humili\u00e9e mais avertie : c&#8217;est l\u00e0 que je cherche l&#8217;\u00e9cart. Je donne 55 % de chances \u00e0 Bayonne de rester \u00e0 douze points ou moins ; le march\u00e9 en donne 49 %.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Bayonne +12,5<\/h2>\n<p>Je prends l&#8217;Aviron Bayonnais +12,5 \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet. Ligne \u00e0 demi-point, sans remboursement : victoire, nul ou d\u00e9faite de douze points au plus, le pari est gagn\u00e9 (+22,50 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s) ; d\u00e9faite de treize points ou plus, il est perdu (-25 $).<\/p>\n<p>55 % contre 49 % : l&#8217;\u00e9cart est mince et ne survit pas au m\u00e9lange avec la lecture du march\u00e9, donc mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9, et je le dis sans d\u00e9tour. La ligne n&#8217;est cot\u00e9e que par un seul bookmaker, avec 6,7 % de marge : pas de quoi charger. Comment une mise se calcule \u00e0 partir d&#8217;un avantage, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> le d\u00e9taille ; ce pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019UBB, deuxi\u00e8me, retrouve Chaban-Delmas apr\u00e8s trois week-ends de route, mais sa deuxi\u00e8me ligne est en chantier et la fen\u00eatre internationale s\u2019en m\u00eale. Je prends Bayonne +12,5 \u00e0 1,90, mise minimale, sans avantage net.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12546,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"UBB favori \u00e0 1,18 malgr\u00e9 sa deuxi\u00e8me ligne d\u00e9cim\u00e9e : mon pronostic Bordeaux B\u00e8gles - Bayonne, analyse du Top 14 et pari Bayonne +12,5 \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Bordeaux B\u00e8gles","ba_away_name":"Aviron Bayonnais","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-31 15:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54135","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"plojvd0uekg","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Aviron Bayonnais +12,5","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":12.5,"odds":1.9,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":22.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-10-26 18:49:58","settled_at":"","probability":0.55,"p_market":0.4933,"p_used":0.5217,"edge":-0.0089,"market_margin":0.0669,"market_books":1,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-12543","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bordeaux-B\u00e8gles &#8211; 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