{"id":12813,"date":"2026-10-27T22:54:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T21:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/djokovic-humbert-quinze-ans-apres-bale-dix-neuf-jours-sans-match\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T22:55:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T21:55:10","slug":"djokovic-humbert-pronostic-2026-10-28","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/djokovic-humbert-pronostic-2026-10-28\/","title":{"rendered":"Djokovic – Humbert : quinze ans apr\u00e8s B\u00e2le, dix-neuf jours sans match"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mercredi \u00e0 la St. Jakobshalle, Novak Djokovic dispute son premier match \u00e0 B\u00e2le depuis 2011<\/a>. Un titre ici en 2009, une finale en 2010, une demi-finale en 2011 : 12 victoires pour 2 d\u00e9faites<\/a> dans cette salle, et quinze ans d’absence. Invit\u00e9 sur wild card, t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie n\u00b04, il ouvre son tournoi contre Ugo Humbert.<\/p>\n

Turin et un 103e titre en ligne de mire<\/h2>\n

Onzi\u00e8me de la course \u00e0 Turin, \u00e0 319 points de la derni\u00e8re place qualificative, Djokovic vient chercher les points d’une dix-neuvi\u00e8me qualification, un record. Un 103e titre \u00e9galerait Federer ; le 102e remonte \u00e0 P\u00e9kin, d\u00e9but octobre. B\u00e2le a \u00e9t\u00e9 ajout\u00e9 \u00e0 son programme apr\u00e8s le report du Six Kings Slam, et le tableau s’est ouvert autour de lui avec les forfaits de Tsitsipas, Bublik et Davidovich Fokina.<\/p>\n

Dix-neuf jours sans match<\/h2>\n

Sa derni\u00e8re sortie remonte au 9 octobre, une d\u00e9faite contre Hubert Hurkacz \u00e0 Shanghai. Depuis, dix-neuf jours de coupure, rattrap\u00e9s dimanche par un entra\u00eenement \u00e0 huis clos avec Stan Wawrinka<\/a>. \u00c0 l’arriv\u00e9e \u00e0 B\u00e2le, il a dit ce que la salle lui promet : pas de chaleur, pas de soleil, moins de facteurs ext\u00e9rieurs qu’un ext\u00e9rieur o\u00f9 il a souvent souffert cette saison. \u00c0 39 ans, la question de ce premier tour n’est pas le niveau, c’est le tempo.<\/p>\n

Humbert, un gaucher dangereux qui ne gagne plus<\/h2>\n

Le Fran\u00e7ais, 32e mondial, reste sur deux victoires en dix matchs : des d\u00e9faites contre Moutet \u00e0 Lyon dans un troisi\u00e8me set au tie-break, Gea \u00e0 Shanghai, Lehecka \u00e0 Tokyo. Gaucher r\u00e9put\u00e9 \u00e0 l’aise en salle, l’ATP le pr\u00e9sente comme un test d’ouverture redoutable dans ces conditions<\/a>. Il ne tient pourtant plus que 74,5 % de ses jeux de service sur ses dix derniers matchs, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 Djokovic en tient 81,8 %, et le Serbe m\u00e8ne leur unique confrontation, \u00e0 Wimbledon en 2019.<\/p>\n

Leurs cinq derniers matchs, ceux de Djokovic datant tous d’octobre :<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Joueur<\/th>\nDate<\/th>\nTournoi<\/th>\nAdversaire<\/th>\nR\u00e9sultat<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
N. Djokovic<\/td>\n09\/10<\/td>\nShanghai<\/td>\nH. Hurkacz<\/td>\nD<\/td>\n4-6 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N. Djokovic<\/td>\n04\/10<\/td>\nP\u00e9kin<\/td>\nA. Zverev<\/td>\nV<\/td>\n4-6 6-4 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N. Djokovic<\/td>\n02\/10<\/td>\nP\u00e9kin<\/td>\nY. Bu<\/td>\nV<\/td>\n4-6 7-6 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N. Djokovic<\/td>\n30\/09<\/td>\nP\u00e9kin<\/td>\nN. Borges<\/td>\nV<\/td>\n6-3 7-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
N. Djokovic<\/td>\n30\/08<\/td>\nUS Open<\/td>\nM. Navone<\/td>\nD<\/td>\n6-7 7-5 6-4 2-6 1-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U. Humbert<\/td>\n20\/10<\/td>\nLyon<\/td>\nC. Moutet<\/td>\nD<\/td>\n2-6 7-6 6-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U. Humbert<\/td>\n09\/10<\/td>\nShanghai<\/td>\nA. Gea<\/td>\nD<\/td>\n4-6 6-3 1-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U. Humbert<\/td>\n03\/10<\/td>\nTokyo<\/td>\nJ. Lehecka<\/td>\nD<\/td>\n7-5 4-6 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U. Humbert<\/td>\n01\/10<\/td>\nTokyo<\/td>\nB. Nakashima<\/td>\nV<\/td>\n6-3 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U. Humbert<\/td>\n16\/08<\/td>\nCincinnati<\/td>\nM. Zheng<\/td>\nD<\/td>\n4-6 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00c0 1,38, tout est dit sauf la rouille<\/h2>\n

Mardi soir, Djokovic cote 1,38 chez 1xbet, en l\u00e9ger retrait de son ouverture \u00e0 1,40, et Humbert 3,25 chez Unibet. Une fois la marge retir\u00e9e, le prix donne environ 69,5 % de chances au Serbe ; j’arrive au m\u00eame chiffre. Ce que le prix ne mesure pas, c’est la coupure de dix-neuf jours : je la vois peser sur le premier set, sans renverser le match. Les lignes de handicap et de total de jeux sont cot\u00e9es autour de 8 % de marge, trop cher pour une lecture qui tient d’abord au rythme.<\/p>\n

Pas de pari sur ce retour \u00e0 B\u00e2le. La m\u00e9thode de mise<\/a> reste la m\u00eame, et le bilan public<\/a> n’a rien \u00e0 gagner d’un pari forc\u00e9 ; ce match, le march\u00e9 l’a bien pes\u00e9. Si vous jouez malgr\u00e9 tout, 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Novak Djokovic rejoue \u00e0 B\u00e2le pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis 2011, apr\u00e8s dix-neuf jours sans comp\u00e9tition. \u00c0 1,38 contre Humbert, pas d’\u00e9cart net : pas de pari.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":12816,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Djokovic rejoue \u00e0 B\u00e2le quinze ans apr\u00e8s, face \u00e0 Ugo Humbert. 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