{"id":12913,"date":"2026-10-27T23:53:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T22:53:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/le-havre-psg-cinq-victoires-de-rang-quatre-absents-villarreal-mardi\/"},"modified":"2026-10-27T23:53:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T22:53:51","slug":"le-havre-paris-saint-germain-pronostic-2026-10-30","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-1\/le-havre-paris-saint-germain-pronostic-2026-10-30\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Havre \u2013 PSG : cinq victoires de rang, quatre absents, Villarreal mardi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vendredi \u00e0 Oc\u00e9ane, la Ligue 1 ouvre sa neuvi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e par le match le plus d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibr\u00e9 de son affiche : le leader parisien, 17 points, cinq victoires de rang toutes comp\u00e9titions, chez la lanterne rouge havraise, 2 points, aucune victoire en championnat. Le march\u00e9 n&#8217;y va pas par quatre chemins : 1,26 chez 1xbet au relev\u00e9 de ce mardi, plus de trois chances sur quatre. La question int\u00e9ressante est la marge.<\/p>\n<h2>Cinq victoires, quatre absents, Villarreal mardi<\/h2>\n<p>Paris vient de battre Lyon 2-0 (Mayulu, Godts), apr\u00e8s Barcelone 4-2 et une victoire 4-2 \u00e0 Manchester City en Ligue des champions : 14 buts marqu\u00e9s, 6 encaiss\u00e9s sur la s\u00e9rie. Mais l&#8217;infirmerie <a href=\"https:\/\/news.footeo.com\/2026\/10\/20\/psg-les-premieres-nouvelles-des-blesses-kvaratskhelia-dembele-et-marquinhos-15368\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">s&#8217;est remplie en trois semaines<\/a> :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Nuno Mendes, cuisse gauche, bless\u00e9 \u00e0 Strasbourg le 17 octobre ;<\/li>\n<li>Marquinhos, musculaire, sorti contre le Bar\u00e7a ;<\/li>\n<li>Ousmane Demb\u00e9l\u00e9, arri\u00e8re de cuisse, sorti d\u00e8s la 20e minute du m\u00eame match ;<\/li>\n<li>Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, genou, absent pour longtemps.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Avec <a href=\"https:\/\/billetterie.psg.fr\/fr\/calendrier-des-matchs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Villarreal mardi<\/a> en Ligue des champions puis Troyes, Paris jouera un match tous les trois ou quatre jours, et Luis Enrique fera tourner. Aucun onze n&#8217;est annonc\u00e9 \u00e0 J-3 : les compositions probables qui circulent restent des suppositions. Ce qu&#8217;on sait : m\u00eame tourn\u00e9, le PSG de Luis Enrique a gagn\u00e9 ses cinq derniers matchs.<\/p>\n<h2>Un Havre qui marque et qui encaisse<\/h2>\n<p>Le HAC n&#8217;a pas encore gagn\u00e9 en championnat : deux nuls, six d\u00e9faites. Mais cette \u00e9quipe marque : trois buts au V\u00e9lodrome dimanche (4-3), apr\u00e8s le 1-3 \u00e0 domicile contre Auxerre. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.paris-normandie.fr\/id754990\/article\/2026-10-25\/football-ligue-1-dabord-ridicule-le-hac-finalement-fait-trembler-lom\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La presse locale a titr\u00e9 \u00ab d&#8217;abord ridicule \u00bb<\/a> apr\u00e8s Marseille, les banderoles du kop se sont fait entendre, et Didier Digard cherche une r\u00e9action face \u00e0 un calendrier qu&#8217;il juge \u00ab terrible \u00bb. Une \u00e9quipe qui encaisse 14 buts sur cinq matchs et qui en marque 11 donne des matchs ouverts, m\u00eame perdus. Le march\u00e9 attend la m\u00eame chose : sa ligne principale de buts est \u00e0 3,5.<\/p>\n<p>Quatre absents c\u00f4t\u00e9 havrais : Mpasi-Nzau et Mambimbi, deux tendons d&#8217;Achille, Jelert, cuisse, Pemb\u00e9l\u00e9, aine. Aucun onze assur\u00e9 l\u00e0 non plus, tout se pr\u00e9cisera jeudi.<\/p>\n<h2>L&#8217;historique ne laisse rien au HAC<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>\u00c0 domicile<\/th>\n<th>\u00c0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>28 f\u00e9vrier 2026<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>Paris SG<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>22 novembre 2025<\/td>\n<td>Paris SG<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>19 avril 2025<\/td>\n<td>Paris SG<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>16 ao\u00fbt 2024<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>Paris SG<\/td>\n<td>1-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27 avril 2024<\/td>\n<td>Paris SG<\/td>\n<td>Le Havre<\/td>\n<td>3-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Sur les huit derni\u00e8res confrontations, Le Havre n&#8217;en a gagn\u00e9 aucune, avec un nul. La derni\u00e8re \u00e0 Oc\u00e9ane s&#8217;est d\u00e9cid\u00e9e sur un but, celui de Barcola, en f\u00e9vrier dernier.<\/p>\n<h2>Le pari : Paris -1,5, sans valeur nette<\/h2>\n<p>Sur le vainqueur, il ne reste rien \u00e0 prendre \u00e0 1,26. La ligne qui m&#8217;int\u00e9resse : Paris -1,5, \u00e0 1,71 chez 1xbet, en durcissement depuis les 1,75 de l&#8217;ouverture. Le march\u00e9 y juge Paris gagnant de deux buts \u00e0 peine plus d&#8217;une fois sur deux (57,9 %). Je suis \u00e0 57 % : ma lecture et celle du march\u00e9 se rejoignent presque, il n&#8217;y a pas d&#8217;avantage net, donc mise minimale.<\/p>\n<p>0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $ : gagn\u00e9, si Paris l&#8217;emporte avec au moins deux buts d&#8217;avance, +17,65 $ ; perdu, sur une victoire d&#8217;un but, un nul ou une d\u00e9faite, -25 $. Le sc\u00e9nario qui fait gagner : Paris m\u00e8ne au repos et le HAC doit s&#8217;ouvrir en fin de match. Celui qui fait perdre : un Paris tourn\u00e9 qui gagne au plus pr\u00e8s, comme en f\u00e9vrier. La mise vient du <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de mise en unit\u00e9s<\/a> ; le pari suivra sur le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le leader parisien se d\u00e9place chez la lanterne rouge vendredi soir, avec quatre cadres \u00e0 l&#8217;infirmerie. Je prends Paris -1,5 \u00e0 1,71, sans avantage net sur le march\u00e9 : mise minimale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12916,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Le Havre \u2013 PSG, 9e journ\u00e9e de Ligue 1 : analyse, absents et pronostic. 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