{"id":12957,"date":"2026-10-28T00:36:22","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T23:36:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/section-paloise-stade-toulousain-a-152-le-marche-a-deja-compte-la-casse\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T00:36:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T23:36:36","slug":"section-paloise-stade-toulousain-pronostic-2026-11-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/section-paloise-stade-toulousain-pronostic-2026-11-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Section Paloise &#8211; Stade Toulousain : \u00e0 1,52, le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9 la casse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00ab J&#8217;aimerais quand m\u00eame jouer encore un peu en club\u2026 \u00bb Anthony Jelonch a l\u00e2ch\u00e9 cette phrase lundi dans La D\u00e9p\u00eache, et le XV de France l&#8217;a appel\u00e9 quand m\u00eame. Elle dit la huiti\u00e8me journ\u00e9e de Top 14 : un \u00ab faux doublon \u00bb, ce tour disput\u00e9 pendant la fen\u00eatre internationale, o\u00f9 les s\u00e9lections gardent la plupart des internationaux et en rel\u00e2chent quelques-uns. Dimanche au Hameau, Toulouse aligne ce qui lui reste. Il en reste beaucoup, mais la fen\u00eatre y a laiss\u00e9 des trous : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ladepeche.fr\/2026\/10\/26\/stade-toulousain-plus-de-20-joueurs-absents-alexandre-roumat-fait-son-retour-la-bonne-nouvelle-valentin-delpy-13620947.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">la D\u00e9p\u00eache compte plus de vingt absents c\u00f4t\u00e9 toulousain<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Gagner encore, encaisser trop<\/h2>\n<p>Le Stade vient \u00e0 Pau en leader, avec six victoires de suite toutes comp\u00e9titions avant la septi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e, puis un succ\u00e8s 38-33 contre Perpignan. Ce match-l\u00e0 s&#8217;est referm\u00e9 dans la douleur : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lerugbynistere.fr\/news\/avec-une-quasi-victoire-a-toulouse-lusap-essaye-de-grapiller-les-points-qui-lui-ont-manque-les-saisons-passees\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">26 points encaiss\u00e9s dans les vingt derni\u00e8res minutes<\/a>, un bonus offensif parti en fum\u00e9e. Deux sorties de suite, la d\u00e9fense prend l&#8217;eau. Contre une \u00e9quipe qui marque \u00e0 la maison, \u00e7a finit par se payer.<\/p>\n<h2>Plus de vingt absents, une deuxi\u00e8me ligne \u00e0 b\u00e2tir<\/h2>\n<p>La feuille d&#8217;infirmerie se lit d&#8217;un coup d&#8217;\u0153il :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Prot\u00e9g\u00e9s par la s\u00e9lection : Dupont, Ntamack et Cros ne devraient pas faire le d\u00e9placement dans le B\u00e9arn.<\/li>\n<li>Ind\u00e9cis : Mauvaka, Gourgues et Brennan. Jelonch, appel\u00e9 avec le XV de France, devrait tout de m\u00eame disputer la rencontre selon la presse locale.<\/li>\n<li>\u00c0 l&#8217;infirmerie : les deuxi\u00e8me lignes Meafou, Flament et Verg\u00e9, Merkler, Aldegheri (commotion), Mallia (genou), Chocobares et Menoncello sortis bless\u00e9s en Champions Cup ; Neti, suspendu apr\u00e8s son carton rouge contre Exeter.<\/li>\n<li>Les bonnes nouvelles : le retour de Roumat, et une bonne nouvelle du nom de Delpy. Richardis, commotionn\u00e9 avec Agen en Pro D2, devrait manquer le match.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ma lecture tient en une ligne : sans Meafou, Flament, Verg\u00e9 ni Merkler, la touche toulousaine s&#8217;appuiera sur des rempla\u00e7ants, et le ballon port\u00e9 avec. Sans Cros, le grattage y perd son chef. Je pense que la conqu\u00eate rouge et noire sera disputable dimanche, et que c&#8217;est l\u00e0 que la Section doit appuyer.<\/p>\n<h2>Le Hameau tient, Brau-Boirie ne tiendra pas<\/h2>\n<p>Pau, elle, joue \u00e0 la maison, et le Hameau est une adresse o\u00f9 la Section ne perd pas : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lequipe.fr\/Rugby\/Actualites\/Seule-equipe-invaincue-cette-saison-a-domicile-en-top-14-les-chiffres-de-la-folle-annee-de-la-section-paloise-au-stade-du-hameau\/1684458\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">seule \u00e9quipe invaincue \u00e0 domicile sur la saison r\u00e9guli\u00e8re 2025-26<\/a>, elle s&#8217;y est encore impos\u00e9e devant Castres (35-26). Loin du Hameau, autre histoire : la d\u00e9faite \u00e0 Toulon lui a co\u00fbt\u00e9 sa deuxi\u00e8me place au classement. L&#8217;effectif palois a sa propre casse : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sudouest.fr\/sport\/rugby\/section-paloise\/top-14-la-section-paloise-encore-en-carafe-sur-la-rade-31226224.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Brau-Boirie, bless\u00e9 au genou gauche contre Toulon, est annonc\u00e9 absent environ quatre mois selon la presse<\/a>, l&#8217;op\u00e9ration n&#8217;\u00e9tant pas attest\u00e9e comme d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9alis\u00e9e. Et le statut des internationaux palois (Gailleton, Attissogbe, Auradou) n&#8217;est pas tranch\u00e9 : le club n&#8217;a pas publi\u00e9 sa liste d&#8217;indisponibles.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,52, le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9 les absences<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 1,52 chez Betano ce mardi, Pau est donn\u00e9 favori. Le march\u00e9 a lu les m\u00eames listes que moi : la cote est d\u00e9j\u00e0 pleine des absences toulousaines. La vraie question, dimanche, sera l&#8217;\u00e9cart. La ligne principale, -5,5 points pour la Section, se jouait \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet lundi.<\/p>\n<p>Je donne 54 % de chances \u00e0 Pau de couvrir -5,5, contre 49,1 % au prix du march\u00e9. Concr\u00e8tement, il faut gagner par six points au moins : victoire franche, 22,50 $ nets pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s ; victoire de un \u00e0 cinq points, nul ou d\u00e9faite, pari perdu. Le Hameau, une deuxi\u00e8me ligne toulousaine \u00e0 reconstruire : tout pousse la Section devant. Mon doute, je le dis : sans Brau-Boirie, et contre la profondeur du banc toulousain, la victoire large n&#8217;est pas acquise. D\u00e8s que le site croise ma probabilit\u00e9 avec celle du march\u00e9, l&#8217;\u00e9cart fond \u00e0 1,90. Reste une conviction mince : 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $, la mise minimale.<\/p>\n<p>Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> dit la m\u00eame chose : \u00e0 cette cote, rien \u00e0 forcer. Ce pari rejoint <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">mon bilan public<\/a>, quoi qu&#8217;il arrive. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Toulouse arrive au Hameau avec plus de vingt absents et ses cadres prot\u00e9g\u00e9s, mais Pau ne vaut que 1,52 : le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9 la casse. Je prends Pau -5,5 points \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, mise minimale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":12958,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Section Paloise - Stade Toulousain (Top 14, dimanche 1er novembre) : Toulouse d\u00e9cim\u00e9, Pau favori \u00e0 1,52. Handicap Pau -5,5 \u00e0 1,90, mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Section Paloise","ba_away_name":"Stade Toulousain","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01 20:05:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54129","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pnkb3u0wnct","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap asiatique","selection":"Section Paloise -5,5 points","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"home","line":-5.5,"odds":1.9,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":22.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-10-27 23:36:38","settled_at":"","probability":0.54,"p_market":0.491,"p_used":0.5155,"edge":-0.0206,"market_margin":0.0811,"market_books":3,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-12957","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Section Paloise &#8211; Stade Toulousain : \u00e0 1,52, le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9 la casse &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Section Paloise - Stade Toulousain (Top 14, dimanche 1er novembre) : Toulouse d\u00e9cim\u00e9, Pau favori \u00e0 1,52. 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