{"id":13589,"date":"2026-10-28T19:34:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T18:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/manchester-city-brighton-le-leader-blesse-retrouve-lequipe-qui-lui-resiste\/"},"modified":"2026-10-28T19:34:58","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T18:34:58","slug":"manchester-city-brighton-pronostic-2026-10-31","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/premier-league\/manchester-city-brighton-pronostic-2026-10-31\/","title":{"rendered":"Manchester City &#8211; Brighton : le leader bless\u00e9 retrouve l&#8217;\u00e9quipe qui lui r\u00e9siste"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Quatre jours s\u00e9parent les deux affiches : City re\u00e7oit Brighton mercredi soir en Carabao Cup, puis de nouveau samedi en Premier League, sur la m\u00eame pelouse de l&#8217;Etihad. Et le classement donne \u00e0 ce double rendez-vous son enjeu : le premier re\u00e7oit le troisi\u00e8me.<\/p>\n<p>Battu 2-1 \u00e0 Aston Villa samedi, City a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mancity.com\/news\/mens\/enzo-maresca-aston-villa-premier-league-reaction-october-2026-63928429\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">perdu un match qu&#8217;il a domin\u00e9<\/a> : 63 % de possession, sept tirs cadr\u00e9s contre deux. Maresca a reconnu que son \u00e9quipe n&#8217;a \u00ab pas \u00e9t\u00e9 assez tueur \u00bb devant le but, et la presse locale pointe les erreurs individuelles de Donnarumma et Guehi sur les deux buts de Jackson plut\u00f4t qu&#8217;un probl\u00e8me de fond.<\/p>\n<h2>Apr\u00e8s Villa, il manque \u00e0 City le but qui tue<\/h2>\n<p>La r\u00e9ponse attendue se joue contre l&#8217;adversaire le plus mal choisi : Brighton est invaincu sur les quatre derniers face-\u00e0-face. Les chiffres attaquants rassurent pourtant c\u00f4t\u00e9 City : Haaland, annonc\u00e9 \u00e0 100 % avant Villa, en est \u00e0 douze buts toutes comp\u00e9titions et neuf en 710 minutes de championnat ; Cherki cumule quatre buts et seize occasions cr\u00e9\u00e9es. Sur l&#8217;infirmerie, aucun nouveau souci n&#8217;est annonc\u00e9, seul Semenyo (genou, environ huit semaines d&#8217;absence) manque \u00e0 l&#8217;appel.<\/p>\n<h2>La meilleure attaque du championnat, mais d\u00e9cim\u00e9e<\/h2>\n<p>Troisi\u00e8me avec 16 points, Brighton aligne la meilleure attaque de Premier League : 23 buts en huit journ\u00e9es, troisi\u00e8me total d&#8217;Europe toutes comp\u00e9titions. Avant Anfield, la s\u00e9rie disait quatre victoires d&#8217;affil\u00e9e et quinze buts sans en conc\u00e9der un. Puis Liverpool a fait la loi (2-0), et Hurzeler a d\u00e9fendu les siens : \u00ab une seule \u00e9quipe \u00bb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.beinsports.com\/en-asia\/football\/premier-league\/articles\/brighton-boss-hurzeler-claims-only-one-team-tried-to-create-chances-at-anfield-2026-10-25\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a cherch\u00e9 \u00e0 cr\u00e9er des occasions \u00e0 Anfield<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>En Coupe ce mercredi, Maresca <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mancity.com\/news\/mens\/enzo-maresca-manchester-city-v-brighton-team-news-63928692\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a repos\u00e9 cinq cadres<\/a>, Haaland, Gvardiol, Anderson, Dias et Donnarumma, avec Rulli dans les buts : le onze de samedi ne ressemblera pas \u00e0 celui du soir.<\/li>\n<li>C\u00f4t\u00e9 Brighton, l&#8217;attaque est amput\u00e9e : Mitoma, Ferguson, Tzimas, Azeez et Yohanna sont annonc\u00e9s absents.<\/li>\n<li>Wieffer, apr\u00e8s neuf matchs manqu\u00e9s, et Minteh <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightonandhovealbion.com\/media-article\/team-news-minteh-and-wieffer-in-contention-to-return-against-manchester-city\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reviennent dans le groupe<\/a> ; Struijk et le gardien Steele restent des doutes.<\/li>\n<li>Kadioglu et Chema Andres, sortis sur blessure de hanche \u00e0 Anfield, sont attendus samedi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Le tabou de l&#8217;Etihad tient \u00e0 un but<\/h2>\n<p>Brighton n&#8217;a jamais gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 l&#8217;Etihad : seize d\u00e9placements, quatre nuls, douze d\u00e9faites. Les derni\u00e8res confrontations, elles, se sont resserr\u00e9es :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Affiche<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>7 janvier 2026<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Manchester City &#8211; Brighton<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>31 ao\u00fbt 2025<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Brighton &#8211; Manchester City<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>15 mars 2025<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Manchester City &#8211; Brighton<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>9 novembre 2024<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>Brighton &#8211; Manchester City<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Aucune des quatre derni\u00e8res confrontations ne s&#8217;est termin\u00e9e \u00e0 plus d&#8217;un but d&#8217;\u00e9cart : deux nuls, deux victoires de Brighton par le plus petit des marges.<\/p>\n<h2>Le +1 de Brighton, une assurance \u00e0 1,825<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 n&#8217;a pas chang\u00e9 d&#8217;avis sur le fond : City favori \u00e0 1,696 chez 1xbet, net sans \u00eatre \u00e9crasant. Le +1 de Brighton cote 1,825 chez Bet365 ce mercredi, en hausse depuis son ouverture \u00e0 1,73. Sur les quatre derni\u00e8res confrontations, le sc\u00e9nario le plus fr\u00e9quent de cette affiche est exactement celui que le +1 couvre.<\/p>\n<p>Je donne 56 % de chances \u00e0 ce handicap de passer, contre 53 % pour le march\u00e9. L&#8217;\u00e9cart est trop mince pour parler de valeur : le site calcule la mise au plus juste (le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> d\u00e9taille la m\u00e9thode) et sort au minimum, 0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $ pour 20,63 $ de gain. Brighton gagne ou accroche le nul, le pari paie ; City gagne d&#8217;un but, la mise est rembours\u00e9e ; City gagne de deux buts ou plus, les 25 $ sont perdus. Sans Mitoma ni Ferguson, je ne vois pas Brighton gagner \u00e0 l&#8217;Etihad ; je le vois tenir la distance, comme sur les quatre derniers face-\u00e0-face. Ce pari rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant, comme les autres.<\/p>\n<p>Mon sc\u00e9nario perdant tient en une phrase : piqu\u00e9 apr\u00e8s Villa, City retrouve sa puissance de feu et l&#8217;emporte de deux buts. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Battu pour la premi\u00e8re fois de la saison \u00e0 Aston Villa, City re\u00e7oit deux fois Brighton en quatre jours, en Coupe ce mercredi puis en championnat samedi. Je prends les Seagulls +1 \u00e0 1,825, invaincus sur les quatre derni\u00e8res confrontations mais priv\u00e9s de Mitoma et Ferguson : sans valeur nette, mise minimale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":13590,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Manchester City - Brighton du 31 octobre : cotes, absents et analyse. Je prends Brighton +1 \u00e0 1,825, mise minimale, sans valeur nette.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Manchester City","ba_away_name":"Brighton","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-31 15:00:00","ba_venue":"Etihad Stadium","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1557454","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pcmgeybexf1","author_id":4,"market":"Handicap asiatique","selection":"Brighton +1","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":1,"odds":1.825,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":20.63,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-10-28 18:35:03","settled_at":"","probability":0.56,"p_market":0.5312,"p_used":0.5456,"edge":-0.0043,"market_margin":0.0452,"market_books":3,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,70],"class_list":["post-13589","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-premier-league"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Manchester City &#8211; Brighton : le leader bless\u00e9 retrouve l&#8217;\u00e9quipe qui lui r\u00e9siste &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Manchester City - Brighton du 31 octobre : cotes, absents et analyse. 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