{"id":14171,"date":"2026-11-01T01:21:15","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T00:21:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/marseille-toulouse-lom-revient-de-loin-toulouse-ne-se-laisse-pas-faire\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T02:21:21","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T01:21:21","slug":"marseille-toulouse-pronostic-2026-11-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-1\/marseille-toulouse-pronostic-2026-11-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Marseille \u2013 Toulouse : l’OM revient de loin, Toulouse ne se laisse pas faire"},"content":{"rendered":"

Deux points les s\u00e9parent au classement, douze contre dix, et le march\u00e9 n’ose pas trancher : Marseille re\u00e7oit Toulouse dimanche pour la neuvi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e de Ligue 1 en favori prudent, \u00e0 1,98. L’OM aligne trois victoires de suite en championnat, Troyes, Angers puis Le Havre, mais sort de deux d\u00e9faites europ\u00e9ennes sans marquer, contre Olympiakos \u00e0 domicile et \u00e0 Sturm Graz. Toulouse n’a plus perdu en championnat depuis quatre matchs, avec ce nul arrach\u00e9 \u00e0 Monaco.<\/p>\n

Le 4-3 du Havre, entre soulagement et remontrances<\/h2>\n

Dimanche dernier, l’OM a battu Le Havre 4-3 au V\u00e9lodrome, sa troisi\u00e8me victoire d’affil\u00e9e en championnat. Bruno Genesio n’a pas fait durer le plaisir : il a critiqu\u00e9 la fin de match et le manque d’humilit\u00e9 de deux jeunes, identifi\u00e9s par Le Parisien<\/a> comme Abdallah et Kamissoko. Genesio y voit plus profond : une peur d’\u00eatre rejoint quand on m\u00e8ne au score, et un onze qui se d\u00e9gage sans qu’il veuille en faire une \u00e9quipe-type.<\/p>\n

La feuille de match se dessine : Abdallah, l’un des deux jeunes repris par Genesio, appara\u00eet absent des compositions probables de la Ligue 1<\/a>, Cornelius (hanche) manque toujours et Moumbagna revient dans le groupe. Gouiri, absent de la s\u00e9ance collective de vendredi pour une raison personnelle, est attendu disponible et d’entr\u00e9e, avec H\u00f8jbjerg de retour de blessure au milieu. Me\u00eft\u00e9, malade, reste incertain sans forfait annonc\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Les revers europ\u00e9ens datent des deux semaines pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes, 0-1 contre Olympiakos puis 0-1 \u00e0 Graz : depuis le 10 octobre, l’OM a jou\u00e9 cinq matchs, Toulouse trois. La prochaine journ\u00e9e de Ligue Europa tombe d\u00e8s les 4 et 5 novembre.<\/p>\n

Toulouse accroche, et le V\u00e9lodrome lui r\u00e9ussit<\/h2>\n

Le TFC arrive sur son 2-2 \u00e0 Monaco, son 3-0 au Mans et son 0-0 contre Troyes, toujours invaincu \u00e0 l’ext\u00e9rieur : trois nuls, une victoire, et quatorze ans sans gagner \u00e0 Marseille \u00e0 effacer. Pour sa premi\u00e8re au V\u00e9lodrome, Askou attend un match \u00ab sans doute tr\u00e8s diff\u00e9rent \u00bb de celui de Troyes<\/a> et voit des espaces \u00e0 exploiter. Messali (cuisse) est forfait six \u00e0 huit semaines<\/a>, \u00ab il ne pourra pas jouer jusqu’en d\u00e9cembre \u00bb, tandis qu’Oppong (mollet) revient dans un groupe de vingt et un.<\/p>\n

Les confrontations rassurent les deux camps : sur les cinq derniers duels, l’OM reste invaincu, mais Toulouse a arrach\u00e9 deux nuls, dont un 2-2 au V\u00e9lodrome en novembre 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nComp\u00e9tition<\/th>\nRencontre<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Mars 2026<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\nToulouse – Marseille<\/td>\n0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mars 2026<\/td>\nCoupe de France<\/td>\nMarseille – Toulouse<\/td>\n2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Novembre 2025<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\nMarseille – Toulouse<\/td>\n2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avril 2025<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\nMarseille – Toulouse<\/td>\n3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ao\u00fbt 2024<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\nToulouse – Marseille<\/td>\n1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Le prix et le pari : Marseille gagnant, 0,25 unit\u00e9<\/h2>\n

Le march\u00e9 h\u00e9site : Marseille a d\u00e9riv\u00e9 de 1,96 \u00e0 l’ouverture jusqu’\u00e0 2,04 au mieux, Toulouse est descendu de 3,82 \u00e0 3,55, le nul cote 4,09. \u00c0 1,98 chez Betano, le march\u00e9 donne Marseille gagnant \u00e0 peine plus d’une fois sur deux : 50,5 %. Je le vois \u00e0 54 % : trois victoires de suite en championnat, un V\u00e9lodrome qui pousse m\u00eame le virage Nord ferm\u00e9, et en face une \u00e9quipe qui a perdu le contr\u00f4le en fin de match contre Troyes. L’\u00e9cart vaut une mise de 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $ ; la mise en unit\u00e9s<\/a> suit l’avantage, mesur\u00e9 mais r\u00e9el. Marseille gagne dans le temps r\u00e9glementaire : +24,50 $. Nul ou victoire de Toulouse : -25 $. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n

Le pari gagne si l’OM garde sa dynamique de championnat et tient son avance jusqu’au bout, le\u00e7on du 4-3 contre Le Havre. Il perd si le match se referme et se joue sur un d\u00e9tail, comme ces deux nuls r\u00e9cents contre Toulouse. Ce Marseille gagnant rejoint mon bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c0 J-1, Abdallah appara\u00eet absent, Gouiri et H\u00f8jbjerg attendus c\u00f4t\u00e9 OM, Messali forfait jusqu’en d\u00e9cembre : je garde la victoire de Marseille \u00e0 1,98 chez Betano, 0,25 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":14172,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Marseille - Toulouse : analyse et cotes de la Ligue 1. 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