{"id":14232,"date":"2026-11-01T01:24:15","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T00:24:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/fernandez-shnaider-finale-de-tokyo-la-fraicheur-contre-la-hierarchie\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T02:03:22","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T01:03:22","slug":"fernandez-shnaider-pronostic-2026-11-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/wta\/fernandez-shnaider-pronostic-2026-11-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Fernandez \u2013 Shnaider : finale de Tokyo, la fra\u00eecheur contre la hi\u00e9rarchie"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La finale du Toray Pan Pacific Open, sur le dur ext\u00e9rieur de Tokyo, oppose dimanche la 23e mondiale, Leylah Fernandez, \u00e0 la 13e, Diana Shnaider. Le classement donne Shnaider favorite \u00e0 1,65 ; Fernandez cote d\u00e9sormais 2,40 chez Betway au relev\u00e9 de la nuit de samedi \u00e0 dimanche. La hi\u00e9rarchie d&#8217;un c\u00f4t\u00e9, la fra\u00eecheur et la dynamique de l&#8217;autre.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux finales en huit jours pour Fernandez<\/h2>\n<p>Leylah Fernandez joue sa deuxi\u00e8me finale en huit jours : battue par Rybakina \u00e0 Ningbo (2-6 2-6) dimanche dernier, elle aligne depuis trois victoires en deux manches \u00e0 Tokyo, et a domin\u00e9 Rakhimova samedi en 1 h 54, neuf aces, men\u00e9e au d\u00e9but de chaque manche avant de reprendre six des sept derniers jeux de la seconde. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thestar.com.my\/sport\/tennis\/2026\/10\/31\/tennis-fernandez-sets-up-pan-pacific-open-title-clash-with-shnaider\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters rappelle<\/a> son titre de Singapour en septembre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le quart de 2 h 52 de Shnaider p\u00e8se encore<\/h2>\n<p>Diana Shnaider a sorti Eala vendredi <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wtatennis.com\/news\/4601429\/shnaider-battles-past-eala-for-second-straight-week-to-make-tokyo-semis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">en 2 h 52<\/a>, \u00e0 deux points de l&#8217;\u00e9limination dans le deuxi\u00e8me set. Samedi, il lui a fallu 1 h 46 pour se d\u00e9faire de Pohankova, apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9cart\u00e9 une balle de match dans le jeu d\u00e9cisif de la seconde manche <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wtatennis.com\/news\/4601953\/shnaider-fernandez-win-big-points-down-the-stretch-to-set-up-tokyo-final-showdown\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">avant de l&#8217;emporter<\/a>. Elle joue sa premi\u00e8re finale de la saison et vise un premier titre en 2026.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Tour<\/th>\n<th>Fernandez<\/th>\n<th>Shnaider<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Demi-finale (31 oct.)<\/td>\n<td>Rakhimova 7-5 6-3<\/td>\n<td>Pohankova 6-4 7-6(7)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Quart de finale<\/td>\n<td>Rybakina : forfait<\/td>\n<td>Eala 2-6 7-6(5) 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Huiti\u00e8mes de finale<\/td>\n<td>Mertens 6-2 7-6<\/td>\n<td>Sasnovich 6-3 5-7 6-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Les duels r\u00e9cents sont \u00e0 Shnaider<\/h2>\n<p>Shnaider m\u00e8ne les confrontations 3-2 et a pris les trois derniers duels, \u00e0 Hong Kong fin 2024, puis \u00e0 Adelaide et Charleston cette saison, sans c\u00e9der un set. Sur ses dix derniers matchs, elle gagne 76 % de ses jeux de service, Fernandez 71 %. Fernandez ne l&#8217;a plus battue depuis Wuhan, fin 2024.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Fernandez \u00e0 2,37, 0,5 unit\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 2,37 chez Betano, le march\u00e9 donne 42 % \u00e0 Fernandez, 61 % \u00e0 Shnaider. Je vois la finale plus serr\u00e9e : 45 % pour Fernandez. Son vendredi de repos offert par le forfait de Rybakina, 76 jeux disput\u00e9s sur sept jours contre 84 \u00e0 Shnaider : la semaine p\u00e8se moins dans ses jambes. \u00c0 l&#8217;inverse, Shnaider a pass\u00e9 plus de quatre heures et demie sur le court vendredi et samedi. Cette fra\u00eecheur ne vaut pourtant que pour la semaine : sur quatorze jours, c&#8217;est Fernandez qui a le plus jou\u00e9, huit matchs et 164 jeux contre sept et 155, et aucune des deux n&#8217;a signal\u00e9 de souci physique depuis les demi-finales. La <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">mise en unit\u00e9s<\/a> suit cet \u00e9cart mesur\u00e9 : 0,5 unit\u00e9, soit 50 $. Fernandez gagne : +68,50 $. Shnaider gagne : -50 $. Abandon ou forfait : pari rembours\u00e9. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari suppose que Fernandez gagne encore les points qui comptent, comme dans les deux manches de samedi. Il perd si Shnaider tient son service et prend les balles importantes, comme \u00e0 Adelaide et Charleston. Cette finale rejoint <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">mon bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deuxi\u00e8me finale en huit jours pour Fernandez, un quart de 2 h 52 dans les jambes de Shnaider. Je prends Fernandez \u00e0 2,37, mise de 0,5 unit\u00e9 : une fra\u00eecheur qui ne vaut que cette semaine face \u00e0 la hi\u00e9rarchie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":14578,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Fernandez - Shnaider : analyse de la finale de Tokyo. 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