{"id":14476,"date":"2026-11-01T01:49:47","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T00:49:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tirante-bellucci-le-favori-est-bien-cote-la-marge-en-jeux-vaut-mieux\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T01:49:59","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T00:49:59","slug":"tirante-bellucci-pronostic-2026-11-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/tirante-bellucci-pronostic-2026-11-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Tirante &#8211; Bellucci : le favori est bien cot\u00e9, la marge en jeux vaut mieux"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le deuxi\u00e8me et dernier tour de qualification des Rolex Paris Masters ouvre dimanche matin sur le court central : Thiago Agustin Tirante, t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie 3, contre Mattia Bellucci, t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie 13, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.protennislive.com\/posting\/2026\/352\/qs.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">selon le tableau officiel<\/a>. Le vaincu rentre ; le vainqueur entre lundi dans le tableau final du Masters.<\/p>\n<h2>Tirante tient par sa premi\u00e8re balle<\/h2>\n<p>Samedi, l&#8217;Argentin a sorti Zachary Svajda 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 en 1 h 48, avec <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/matches\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters\/thiago-agustin-tirante-vs-zachary-svajda\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vingt-trois aces<\/a> relev\u00e9s par Tennis Majors. Son match tient l\u00e0 : 79,3 % de jeux de service gagn\u00e9s sur ses dix derni\u00e8res sorties, 17 % de breaks au passage. Autour, la s\u00e9rie est grise : quatre victoires et six d\u00e9faites sur la p\u00e9riode, des revers nets \u00e0 Vienne, P\u00e9kin et Shanghai.<\/p>\n<h2>La s\u00e9rie de Bellucci, lue avec pr\u00e9caution<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;Italien a battu Pablo Carre\u00f1o Busta 6-1, 7-6 en <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rolexparismasters.com\/en\/schedule-and-results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1 h 35<\/a> sur le court 1, onze aces compt\u00e9s. Huit victoires sur ses dix derniers matchs, dont cinq au Challenger de Jinan : la s\u00e9rie est r\u00e9elle, elle p\u00e8se moins sur un court de Masters 1000, et ses chiffres de la p\u00e9riode (87,8 % de jeux de service gagn\u00e9s, 24,7 % de breaks) sont gonfl\u00e9s par des adversaires de Challenger. Rapport\u00e9 \u00e0 la surface, son service reste solide ; c&#8217;est le reste qu&#8217;il faut actualiser.<\/p>\n<h2>Une opposition d\u00e9j\u00e0 jou\u00e9e en janvier<\/h2>\n<p>Ils se sont rencontr\u00e9s deux fois : Tirante \u00e0 Milan en 2023, Bellucci \u00e0 Manama en janvier, 6-4, 6-4. Sur dur indoor, surface rapide o\u00f9 le service p\u00e8se, la diff\u00e9rence de classement (Tirante 54e, Bellucci 86e) dit moins que la dynamique. Bellucci a pass\u00e9 treize minutes de moins sur le court samedi : un d\u00e9tail de calendrier, pas un diagnostic physique.<\/p>\n<h2>Le vainqueur est bien cot\u00e9, la marge l&#8217;est moins<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 1,50 chez Betway, relev\u00e9e cette nuit, Bellucci est donn\u00e9 favori ; Tirante est \u00e0 2,60. Le march\u00e9 du vainqueur a bien lu ce match, je n&#8217;y trouve rien \u00e0 prendre. La ligne qui m&#8217;int\u00e9resse est sur un autre march\u00e9 : Bellucci -2,5 jeux \u00e0 1,79 chez 1xbet.<\/p>\n<p>Je donne 61 % de chances \u00e0 Bellucci de finir avec au moins trois jeux de plus que Tirante ; \u00e0 1,79, le march\u00e9 en voit 52,2 %. Concr\u00e8tement : un succ\u00e8s du type 6-4, 6-4 ou plus sec gagne le pari, 39,50 $ nets pour 50 $ mis\u00e9s ; tout \u00e9cart inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 trois jeux perd la mise. Un abandon ou un forfait rembourse.<\/p>\n<p>La mise est de 0,5 unit\u00e9 : mon 61 % contre les 52,2 % du march\u00e9 laisse un petit \u00e9cart, et une demi-unit\u00e9 est ce que le site en tire. Mon sc\u00e9nario : Tirante tient tant que sa premi\u00e8re balle rentre ; un break par set suffit \u00e0 Bellucci, et la marge se fait l\u00e0.<\/p>\n<p>Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> montre comment une demi-unit\u00e9 na\u00eet d&#8217;un petit \u00e9cart, pas d&#8217;une certitude. Ce pari rejoint <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">mon bilan public<\/a>, quoi qu&#8217;il arrive. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dernier tour de qualification aux Masters de Paris : Bellucci est favori \u00e0 1,50 et le march\u00e9 du vainqueur est bien lu ; je prends la marge, Bellucci -2,5 jeux \u00e0 1,79 chez 1xbet, 0,5 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":14479,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Tirante - Bellucci, dernier tour qualificatif des Masters de Paris : Bellucci favori \u00e0 1,50, je prends Bellucci -2,5 jeux \u00e0 1,79 chez 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Thiago Agustin Tirante","ba_away_name":"Mattia Bellucci","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01 10:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12176100","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pkydyotuxrt","author_id":6,"market":"Handicap en jeux","selection":"Mattia Bellucci -2.5 jeux","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"games_spread","selection_key":"away","line":-2.5,"odds":1.79,"stake_units":0.5,"stake_amount":50,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":39.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-01 00:50:06","settled_at":"","probability":0.61,"p_market":0.5219,"p_used":0.566,"edge":0.0131,"market_margin":0.095,"market_books":3,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-14476","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tirante &#8211; 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