{"id":14496,"date":"2026-11-01T01:52:19","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T00:52:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/cerundolo-kecmanovic-la-derniere-marche-avant-le-tableau-final-a-deux-jeux-pres\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T01:52:31","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T00:52:31","slug":"cerundolo-kecmanovic-pronostic-2026-11-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/cerundolo-kecmanovic-pronostic-2026-11-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Cerundolo – Kecmanovic : la derni\u00e8re marche avant le tableau final, \u00e0 deux jeux pr\u00e8s"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sur le court 2 des Masters de Paris, Juan Manuel Cerundolo, t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie 5 des qualifications, affronte Miomir Kecmanovic, t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie 8<\/a>, pour la derni\u00e8re marche avant le tableau final. Sept places au tableau principal sont en jeu ce week-end<\/a> : le perdant rentre, le gagnant entre dans le Masters 1000.<\/p>\n

Cerundolo passe, et vite<\/h2>\n

Samedi, l’Argentin a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 Aleksandar Kovacevic 7-6(5), 6-3 : deux sets, selon le tableau officiel<\/a>. Sur ses dix derniers matchs, il tient 77,9 % de ses jeux de service et en prend 23,3 % \u00e0 l’adversaire. Il a battu Kecmanovic sur la terre battue de Gstaad en juillet, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 ; c’\u00e9tait en plein air, sur une autre surface : ce souvenir vaut comme rep\u00e8re, pas comme raison de parier.<\/p>\n

Kecmanovic accroche, un set de trop<\/h2>\n

Le Serbe a eu besoin de 1 h 58<\/a> pour sortir James Duckworth, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, dur\u00e9e officielle de l’ATP. Sa saison est d\u00e9ficitaire (23 victoires, 28 d\u00e9faites), et ses dix derniers matchs donnent 71,4 % de jeux de service tenus, 19 % de breaks. Sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, l’\u00e9cart de service entre les deux d\u00e9passe six points : c’est l\u00e0 que le match se joue.<\/p>\n

Une semaine pleine contre un match de plus<\/h2>\n

Cerundolo a jou\u00e9 trois matchs sur sept jours, Kecmanovic un seul ; samedi pourtant, c’est le Serbe qui est rest\u00e9 le plus longtemps sur le court. Aucune g\u00eane n’est signal\u00e9e d’un c\u00f4t\u00e9 ni de l’autre, et je ne parie pas sur une fatigue que rien ne confirme. Ce que je retiens : l’avantage de parcours de l’Argentin est mince, et son avance au service compte sur un match entier, pas sur un set.<\/p>\n

Le march\u00e9 a durci pour Cerundolo, la marge reste \u00e0 prix<\/h2>\n

La victoire de l’Argentin est pass\u00e9e de 1,87 \u00e0 1,73 chez Betway depuis l’ouverture du march\u00e9 ; Kecmanovic est \u00e0 2,10. Le march\u00e9 dit ce que je lis, et je ne prends pas le vainqueur \u00e0 ce prix. Je prends la marge : Cerundolo -1,5 jeux \u00e0 1,89 chez 1xbet.<\/p>\n

Je lui donne 58 % de chances de terminer avec au moins deux jeux de plus que Kecmanovic ; le march\u00e9, lui, en voit 49,1 %. Concr\u00e8tement : 6-4, 6-4 ou plus sec et le pari gagne, 22,25 $ nets pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s ; tout \u00e9cart inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 deux jeux perd la mise. Un abandon ou un forfait rembourse.<\/p>\n

La mise est de 0,25 unit\u00e9 : c’est ce que le site tire d’un petit \u00e9cart entre mon 58 % et celui du march\u00e9, et je ne le conteste pas, sur cette ligne la certitude n’existe pas. Mon sc\u00e9nario : Cerundolo sert son avance au premier set, et le break de trop arrive au deuxi\u00e8me.<\/p>\n

Le calculateur de Kelly<\/a> dit la m\u00eame chose : un petit \u00e9cart, une petite mise. Ce pari rejoint mon bilan public<\/a>, quoi qu’il arrive. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dernier tour des qualifications aux Masters de Paris, sept places en jeu : Cerundolo est favori \u00e0 1,73 et je prends le handicap, Cerundolo -1,5 jeux \u00e0 1,89 chez 1xbet, 0,25 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":14499,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Cerundolo - Kecmanovic, dernier tour qualificatif des Masters de Paris : Cerundolo favori \u00e0 1,73, je prends -1,5 jeux \u00e0 1,89 chez 1xbet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Juan Manuel Cerundolo","ba_away_name":"Miomir Kecmanovic","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-01 11:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12176187","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pzagaxkfbxw","author_id":6,"market":"Handicap en jeux","selection":"Juan Manuel Cerundolo -1.5 jeux","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"games_spread","selection_key":"home","line":-1.5,"odds":1.89,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":22.25,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-01 00:52:34","settled_at":"","probability":0.58,"p_market":0.4905,"p_used":0.5353,"edge":0.0116,"market_margin":0.0903,"market_books":3,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-14496","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"\nCerundolo – Kecmanovic : la derni\u00e8re marche avant le tableau final, \u00e0 deux jeux pr\u00e8s · Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Cerundolo - 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