{"id":14770,"date":"2026-11-01T18:38:03","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T17:38:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/djokovic-vacherot-deux-services-qui-tiennent-je-joue-la-longueur-a-198\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T20:05:49","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T19:05:49","slug":"djokovic-vacherot-pronostic-2026-11-02","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/djokovic-vacherot-pronostic-2026-11-02\/","title":{"rendered":"Djokovic \u2013 Vacherot : deux services qui tiennent, je joue la longueur \u00e0 1,98"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Valentin Vacherot a soulev\u00e9 le troph\u00e9e de B\u00e2le dimanche, en renversant Jiri Lehecka 2-6, 6-3, 6-3 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/news\/lehecka-vacherot-basel-2026-final-sunday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ATP<\/a>). Dans la foul\u00e9e de ce titre, il affronte Novak Djokovic au premier tour du Masters 1000 de Paris, le tournoi que le Serbe a gagn\u00e9 sept fois. Les deux hommes ne sortent pas de la m\u00eame semaine, et m\u00eame le cr\u00e9neau du match n&#8217;\u00e9tait pas annonc\u00e9 dimanche soir : lundi ou mardi.<\/p>\n<h2>Une d\u00e9faite contre Struff, une place \u00e0 Turin \u00e0 aller chercher<\/h2>\n<p>Djokovic a quitt\u00e9 B\u00e2le par la petite porte, battu en huiti\u00e8mes par Jan-Lennard Struff 6-7, 7-5, 7-6 apr\u00e8s 2 h 36, sa premi\u00e8re d\u00e9faite en neuf duels contre lui (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/news\/djokovic-struff-basel-2026-thursday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ATP<\/a>). Il lui reste trois jours de repos et un objectif qui ne bouge pas : 11e de la course \u00e0 Turin, \u00e0 319 points de Rafael Jodar, il doit faire son compte \u00e0 Paris. C\u00e9dric Pioline, le directeur du tournoi, le dit sans d\u00e9tour : ce pourrait \u00eatre sa derni\u00e8re apparition ici, ou l&#8217;avant-derni\u00e8re (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/lets-make-the-most-of-novak-pioline-says-paris-could-be-djokovic-last-or-second-to-last-864610.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tennis Majors<\/a>).<\/p>\n<h2>Vacherot lanc\u00e9, et un pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent qui pique<\/h2>\n<p>Vacherot, lui, a gagn\u00e9 cinq matchs en sept jours \u00e0 B\u00e2le, une demi-finale contre Taylor Fritz exp\u00e9di\u00e9e en 87 minutes incluse, et il est le premier Mon\u00e9gasque \u00e0 atteindre une finale d&#8217;ATP 500. Il affiche neuf victoires en dix matchs en salle cette saison, sa seule d\u00e9faite contre Van Assche \u00e0 Lyon. Le pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent entre les deux joue en sa faveur : \u00e0 Shanghai en 2025, sorti des qualifications et 204e mondial, il avait battu Djokovic 6-3, 6-4 en demi-finale (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sports\/tennis\/qualifier-vacherot-stuns-djokovic-reach-shanghai-final-2025-10-11\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a>). Aucun autre joueur du tableau ne peut dire \u00e7a.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux services qui tiennent, un match qui s&#8217;installe<\/h2>\n<p>Sur leurs dix derniers matchs, Djokovic a tenu 84,4 % de ses jeux de service, Vacherot 83,8 %.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Sur les dix derniers matchs<\/th>\n<th>Djokovic<\/th>\n<th>Vacherot<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de service tenus<\/td>\n<td>84,4 %<\/td>\n<td>83,8 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de retour gagn\u00e9s<\/td>\n<td>16,8 %<\/td>\n<td>18,8 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Matchs sur les sept derniers jours<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Deux services \u00e0 ce niveau, sur dur couvert, cela donne peu de breaks et des sets qui s&#8217;allongent. Le risque du pari tient dans les jambes de Vacherot : 131 jeux disput\u00e9s en sept jours ne s&#8217;effacent ni en une nuit de sommeil ni dans le vol B\u00e2le-Paris, et des jambes lourdes, c&#8217;est une seconde balle plus lente en fin de set, des jeux de service qui l\u00e2chent, des sets \u00e0 6-3. L&#8217;inverse existe aussi : tant que Vacherot tient, chaque set se joue sur deux ou trois balles de break, et un troisi\u00e8me set emporte le plus souvent le pari avec lui.<\/p>\n<h2>Plus de 23,5 jeux \u00e0 1,98 : mon pari<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 1,98 chez Unibet, le march\u00e9 donne plus de 23,5 jeux \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s une chance sur deux. Je le vois \u00e0 54 %, un cran en dessous de ce que la tenue de service des deux hommes sugg\u00e8re, pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment \u00e0 cause de cette fatigue. Une demi-unit\u00e9, soit 50 $ : l&#8217;avantage est mod\u00e9r\u00e9 et la <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">mise en unit\u00e9s<\/a> le suit sans le grossir. Au moins 24 jeux : gagn\u00e9, +49 $. Vingt-trois jeux ou moins : perdu, -50 $ ; un abandon ou un forfait rembourse la mise. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<p>Un 7-6, 7-6 passe la ligne \u00e0 26 jeux ; un 6-4, 7-6 la rate \u00e0 23. Le pari vit sur les balles de break sauv\u00e9es et les tie-breaks, il meurt si la salle assiste \u00e0 une d\u00e9faite exp\u00e9di\u00e9e. Cette lecture rejoint <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">mon bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vacherot sort d&#8217;un titre \u00e0 B\u00e2le gagn\u00e9 dimanche, Djokovic d&#8217;une d\u00e9faite contre Struff : deux services qui tiennent autour de 84 % de leurs jeux, un premier tour parisien qui s&#8217;annonce long. Je prends plus de 23,5 jeux \u00e0 1,98.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":14773,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Djokovic \u2013 Vacherot, premier tour du Masters de Paris : cotes et analyse. 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