{"id":14830,"date":"2026-11-01T18:55:02","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T17:55:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/musetti-hurkacz-le-titre-de-lyon-contre-le-repos-du-polonais\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T20:18:56","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T19:18:56","slug":"musetti-hurkacz-pronostic-2026-11-02","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/musetti-hurkacz-pronostic-2026-11-02\/","title":{"rendered":"Musetti \u2013 Hurkacz : le titre de Lyon contre le repos du Polonais"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le tirage du Masters de Paris a align\u00e9 lundi Lorenzo Musetti et Hubert Hurkacz d\u00e8s le premier tour, et le vainqueur aura la r\u00e9compense qui va avec : Alexander Zverev, futur num\u00e9ro 1 mondial d\u00e8s lundi, au tour suivant <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rolexparismasters.com\/en\/news\/article\/2026-edition-draw-zverev-alcaraz-fils-djokovic-matchups\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">selon le tableau officiel<\/a>. Deux joueurs au m\u00eame endroit de leur saison : l\u2019Italien sort d\u2019un titre \u00e0 Lyon ; le Polonais sort de B\u00e2le et d\u2019une d\u00e9faite au courage face \u00e0 Holger Rune, une balle de match manqu\u00e9e dans le tie-break d\u00e9cisif.<\/p>\n<h2>Le titre de Lyon, et la facture<\/h2>\n<p>Le sacre de Lyon, gagn\u00e9 face \u00e0 Taylor Fritz en finale (6-3 6-4), est le premier de Musetti depuis quatre ans, et il arrive \u00e0 Paris avec cette confiance neuve. La facture, il l\u2019a dite lui-m\u00eame : \u00ab mal partout \u00bb en entrant dans cette finale, et un merci au kin\u00e9 et au staff m\u00e9dical <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rolandgarros.com\/fr-fr\/article\/atp-wta-musetti-lyon-medvedev-almaty-griekspoor-bruxelles-rybakina-ningbo-siniakova-osaka-titres\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">qui l\u2019ont aid\u00e9 \u00e0 retrouver la forme<\/a>. Sept matchs en deux semaines dans les jambes, entre Lyon et Vienne, avant d\u2019encha\u00eener sur un Masters 1000. \u00c0 Vienne, la sortie est venue d\u00e8s les huiti\u00e8mes, contre <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/scores\/stats-centre\/archive\/2026\/337\/ms009\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arthur Fery<\/a> (4-6 7-5 4-6). Et dans ce tournoi, l\u2019Italien <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tenisbydawid.pl\/hurkacz-musetti-typ-na-mecz-analiza-atp-paryz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">n\u2019a plus gagn\u00e9 un match depuis 2023<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Hurkacz joue sa saison sur une semaine<\/h2>\n<p>Le Polonais dispute ici son dernier tournoi de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, avec un objectif net : rester dans le top 30 pour \u00eatre t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie \u00e0 l\u2019Open d\u2019Australie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.polsatsport.pl\/wiadomosc\/2026-10-30\/hubert-hurkacz-poznal-rywala-los-nie-byl-laskawy-dla-polaka\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">selon la presse polonaise<\/a>. Son automne tient en trois faits : une finale \u00e0 Chengdu, une premi\u00e8re victoire en carri\u00e8re sur Novak Djokovic \u00e0 Shanghai, un quart \u00e0 P\u00e9kin laiss\u00e9 sur une \u00e9longation \u00e0 la jambe. Lui n\u2019a align\u00e9 que deux matchs sur les deux derni\u00e8res semaines.<\/p>\n<h2>Le premier break vaudra un set<\/h2>\n<p>Leur seul duel en salle date de Rotterdam 2022, au m\u00eame moment de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. \u00c0 deux serveurs de cette tenue, le premier break vaut souvent un set entier et les tie-breaks ne sont jamais loin. Le retour de Musetti est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement plus vif sur la p\u00e9riode ; le service de Hurkacz est le plus solide des deux. Les chiffres r\u00e9cents, match par match :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><\/th>\n<th>Lorenzo Musetti<\/th>\n<th>Hubert Hurkacz<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Bilan sur les 10 derniers matchs<\/td>\n<td>7-3<\/td>\n<td>7-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de service gagn\u00e9s (10 derniers)<\/td>\n<td>83,4 %<\/td>\n<td>87,1 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de retour break\u00e9s (10 derniers)<\/td>\n<td>21,7 %<\/td>\n<td>20,3 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tie-breaks jou\u00e9s par set<\/td>\n<td>19 %<\/td>\n<td>27 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Le pari : 0,5 unit\u00e9 sur Hurkacz \u00e0 1,91<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 la veille du match, rien n\u2019a boug\u00e9 : ni forfait ni signal m\u00e9dical neuf de part et d\u2019autre, et un march\u00e9 fig\u00e9, Hurkacz toujours favori serr\u00e9 \u00e0 1,91 chez Betano, Musetti autour de 2,00. Je lui donne 55 % de chances de passer, un peu plus que le prix : il arrive frais l\u00e0 o\u00f9 Musetti quitte deux semaines charg\u00e9es, et la place de t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie australienne se joue cette semaine pour lui. La confiance du vainqueur de Lyon et un retour plus vif m\u2019emp\u00eachent d\u2019aller plus haut : l\u2019avantage est mince, et la mise le dit, 0,5 unit\u00e9, soit 50 $, pour 45,50 $ de gain potentiel, calcul\u00e9e avec notre <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a>. Un abandon ou un forfait rembourse la mise. Le r\u00e9sultat rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lorenzo Musetti arrive \u00e0 Paris avec le titre de Lyon, Hubert Hurkacz avec des jambes fra\u00eeches et un service au sommet. Je joue le Polonais \u00e0 1,91 : mise de 0,5 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15032,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Musetti \u2013 Hurkacz au Masters de Paris : le titre de Lyon contre le repos du Polonais, notre pari porte sur Hurkacz \u00e0 1,91.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Lorenzo Musetti","ba_away_name":"Hubert Hurkacz","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-02 09:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12176030","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"phtaq7w9efd","author_id":6,"market":"Vainqueur du match","selection":"Hubert Hurkacz","bookmaker":"Betano","market_key":"ml","selection_key":"away","line":null,"odds":1.91,"stake_units":0.5,"stake_amount":50,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":45.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-01 17:55:20","settled_at":"","probability":0.55,"p_market":0.5159,"p_used":0.533,"edge":0.0179,"market_margin":0.0545,"market_books":7,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-14830","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Musetti \u2013 Hurkacz : le titre de Lyon contre le repos du Polonais &#183; 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