{"id":14895,"date":"2026-11-01T19:35:29","date_gmt":"2026-11-01T18:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rinderknech-cerundolo-a-142-le-marche-a-deja-tout-dit-je-ne-parie-pas\/"},"modified":"2026-11-01T20:39:19","modified_gmt":"2026-11-01T19:39:19","slug":"rinderknech-cerundolo-pronostic-2026-11-02","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/rinderknech-cerundolo-pronostic-2026-11-02\/","title":{"rendered":"Rinderknech &#8211; Cerundolo : \u00e0 1,45, le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 tout dit, je ne parie pas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Rinderknech n&#8217;a plus gagn\u00e9 un match depuis le 2 septembre et son deuxi\u00e8me tour de l&#8217;US Open. Depuis : une <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisactu.net\/news-atp-blessure-rinderknech-j-espere-vous-retrouver-au-rolex-paris-masters-127423.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">d\u00e9chirure musculaire d\u00e9but octobre<\/a>, contract\u00e9e \u00e0 P\u00e9kin sur son premier double, puis trois tournois saut\u00e9s, dont un Shanghai o\u00f9 il d\u00e9fendait les 650 points de sa finale de 2025. Son retour \u00e0 B\u00e2le, le 27 octobre, a dur\u00e9 une heure quarante-trois : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurosport.fr\/tennis\/atp-bale\/2026\/atp-500-bale-i-arthur-rinderknech-prend-la-porte-au-premier-tour-battu-par-le-222e-mondial-jerome-kym_sto23349533\/story.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">battu 6-7 4-6<\/a> par J\u00e9r\u00f4me Kym, 222e mondial. Le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rolexparismasters.com\/en\/news\/article\/2026-edition-draw-zverev-alcaraz-fils-djokovic-matchups\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tirage du Rolex Paris Masters<\/a> lui donne Francisco Cerundolo, t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie n\u00b016, au premier tour.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>L&#8217;ordre de jeu du lundi est sorti sans le simple : Rinderknech joue le double aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de Bonzi, Cerundolo aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s d&#8217;Etcheverry, et le match glisse \u00e0 mardi, sans communiqu\u00e9 du tournoi.<\/li>\n<li>Aucune conf\u00e9rence de presse ni mise \u00e0 jour m\u00e9dicale depuis B\u00e2le : l&#8217;\u00e9tat r\u00e9el de l&#8217;abdomen ne se lira que sur le court.<\/li>\n<li>Cerundolo reste une \u00e9nigme : son tennis de Bruxelles et son tennis de Vienne n&#8217;ont rien \u00e0 voir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Une d\u00e9chirure \u00e0 l&#8217;abdomen s&#8217;attaque d&#8217;abord au service<\/h2>\n<p>La blessure, signal\u00e9e \u00e0 l&#8217;abdomen, tombe sur le geste le plus rentable du Fran\u00e7ais. Sur ses dix derniers matchs, il gagne 78,5 % de ses jeux de service ; Cerundolo en gagne 79,6 %. Sur le papier, les deux se tiennent \u00e0 un point pr\u00e8s, et le match ressort serr\u00e9 d\u00e8s qu&#8217;on le fait tourner sur ces chiffres-l\u00e0. Sauf que le papier date : Rinderknech a gagn\u00e9 ces jeux de service avant P\u00e9kin, et je ne sais pas combien de volume un abdomen d\u00e9chir\u00e9 tol\u00e8re sur une seconde balle frapp\u00e9e \u00e0 plein effort.<\/p>\n<h2>B\u00e2le n&#8217;a pas rassur\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Ce retour se lit en deux temps. Le premier set emmen\u00e9 au tie-break face \u00e0 Kym dit un joueur encore capable de tenir son service une heure. Les cinq balles de break obtenues, aucune convertie, disent le reste : quand le match a bascul\u00e9, le bras n&#8217;a pas suivi. C&#8217;est la quatri\u00e8me d\u00e9faite de suite pour Rinderknech, et trois semaines apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9chirure, la seule conclusion s\u00fbre est que le corps tient debout. La concurrence en est une autre.<\/p>\n<h2>Cerundolo traverse, mais il joue<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;Argentin n&#8217;arrive pas mieux : <a href=\"https:\/\/onefootball.com\/fr\/news\/nouvelle-deception-pour-cerundolo-battu-en-deux-sets-et-elimine-a-vienne-43683757\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">battu 4-6 1-6 par C. Norrie<\/a> au premier tour de Vienne, le 27 octobre, trois jours apr\u00e8s avoir perdu sa demi-finale de Bruxelles contre T. Griekspoor. Sa fin de saison est terne, mais il a disput\u00e9 quatre matchs en deux semaines l\u00e0 o\u00f9 Rinderknech en a jou\u00e9 un seul depuis mi-octobre. Dans un premier tour de Masters 1000, ce rythme-l\u00e0 vaut plus qu&#8217;une ligne de classement.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Joueur<\/th>\n<th>Tournoi<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/10<\/td>\n<td>A. Rinderknech<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e2le, 1er tour<\/td>\n<td>J. Kym<\/td>\n<td>6-7 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/09<\/td>\n<td>A. Rinderknech<\/td>\n<td>US Open, 3e tour<\/td>\n<td>D. Medvedev<\/td>\n<td>4-6 4-6 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>02\/09<\/td>\n<td>A. Rinderknech<\/td>\n<td>US Open, 2e tour<\/td>\n<td>J. Munar<\/td>\n<td>7-6 6-2 7-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/10<\/td>\n<td>F. Cerundolo<\/td>\n<td>Vienne, 1er tour<\/td>\n<td>C. Norrie<\/td>\n<td>4-6 1-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/10<\/td>\n<td>F. Cerundolo<\/td>\n<td>Bruxelles, demie<\/td>\n<td>T. Griekspoor<\/td>\n<td>6-2 3-6 6-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>23\/10<\/td>\n<td>F. Cerundolo<\/td>\n<td>Bruxelles, quart<\/td>\n<td>C. Chidekh<\/td>\n<td>6-2 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,45, tout est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans la cote<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 n&#8217;a pas attendu B\u00e2le : Cerundolo s&#8217;affiche \u00e0 1,45 chez BetMGM ce dimanche soir, apr\u00e8s avoir ouvert \u00e0 1,42 ; Rinderknech reste \u00e0 3,00 chez Unibet, un prix qui n&#8217;a pas boug\u00e9 depuis l&#8217;ouverture. \u00c0 1,45, le march\u00e9 laisse un peu moins de sept chances sur dix \u00e0 l&#8217;Argentin. Le reste du tableau est coh\u00e9rent : Rinderknech se prend aussi trois jeux et demi de handicap \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365, le prix d&#8217;un match que le march\u00e9 attend disput\u00e9, pas renvers\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Mes chiffres de service donnent le m\u00eame match serr\u00e9, et c&#8217;est justement ce qui doit me freiner : ils placent Rinderknech mieux que sa cote, sans savoir qu&#8217;un abdomen vient de se d\u00e9chirer. Entre le chiffre et le prix, je choisis le prix. Le face-\u00e0-face, deux victoires fran\u00e7aises en 2022, une United Cup et un tournoi \u00e0 Phoenix, ne parle pas de 2026.<\/p>\n<h2>Le march\u00e9 a bien lu : pas de pari<\/h2>\n<p>Le vainqueur est trop cher c\u00f4t\u00e9 Cerundolo ; les lignes de jeux int\u00e8grent d\u00e9j\u00e0 le retour de blessure ; et la longueur du match d\u00e9pend d&#8217;un abdomen que personne, moi comprise, ne peut \u00e9valuer depuis l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur. Sans avantage net, ma mise tombe \u00e0 z\u00e9ro, et le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> dit la m\u00eame chose que mon carnet : rien \u00e0 prendre. Ce match n&#8217;entrera dans mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> que par la plume. 18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rinderknech n&#8217;a plus gagn\u00e9 depuis le 2 septembre et revient d&#8217;une d\u00e9chirure \u00e0 l&#8217;abdomen, Cerundolo sort d&#8217;une claque \u00e0 Vienne : \u00e0 1,45, la cote a pes\u00e9 l&#8217;essentiel. Je regarde ce premier tour du Masters de Paris, d\u00e9cal\u00e9 \u00e0 mardi, sans parier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":14898,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Rinderknech revient d&#8217;une d\u00e9chirure, Cerundolo sort de Vienne : \u00e0 1,45, mon pronostic pour ce premier tour du Masters de Paris est sans pari.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Arthur Rinderknech","ba_away_name":"Francisco Cerundolo","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-02 09:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12176034","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-14895","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rinderknech &#8211; 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