{"id":15411,"date":"2026-11-02T18:38:48","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T17:38:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/nakashima-berrettini-deux-gros-services-un-marche-qui-a-bien-lu\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T20:03:51","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T19:03:51","slug":"nakashima-berrettini-pronostic-2026-11-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/nakashima-berrettini-pronostic-2026-11-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Nakashima – Berrettini : deux gros services, un march\u00e9 qui a bien lu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Matteo Berrettini n’\u00e9tait pas inscrit au tableau des Masters de Paris. Forfait de F\u00e9lix Auger-Aliassime, ticket de rempla\u00e7ant : l’Italien, 46e mondial, arrive \u00e0 Nanterre avec deux victoires et un quart de finale \u00e0 Vienne dans les jambes. Son adversaire du premier tour, il le conna\u00eet : Brandon Nakashima l’a battu il y a trois semaines \u00e0 Shanghai, 7-6 7-5.<\/p>\n

Le rempla\u00e7ant arrive avec des matchs dans les jambes<\/h2>\n

La semaine viennoise de Berrettini tient en trois matchs : Etcheverry battu 6-3 6-4, Cobolli arr\u00eat\u00e9 sur abandon \u00e0 5-2, puis De Minaur en quart, 6-7 2-6. Le score final est net, le premier set s’est jou\u00e9 au tie-break. Trois jours plus tard, le voil\u00e0 appel\u00e9 \u00e0 remplacer Auger-Aliassime<\/a> : c’est un joueur qui a jou\u00e9 la semaine pass\u00e9e, pas un rempla\u00e7ant sorti du froid. L’ordre du jeu officiel, publi\u00e9 lundi, place ce match en deuxi\u00e8me position sur le court 2, derri\u00e8re Rublev-Etcheverry qui ouvre la session \u00e0 11 heures : pr\u00e9voyez un d\u00e9part vers le milieu de journ\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Son profil colle \u00e0 la salle : 80,7 % de jeux de service gagn\u00e9s sur ses dix derniers matchs, et le go\u00fbt du tie-break, 0,38 par set. La frappe lourde raccourcit les points, le court indoor de Nanterre arrange ce tennis. \u00c0 46e mondial, ce n’est pas le nom qu’on attend au premier tour d’un Masters 1000.<\/p>\n

Shanghai a d\u00e9j\u00e0 tranch\u00e9, sur le fil<\/h2>\n

Le 9 octobre, \u00e0 Shanghai, Nakashima l’a emport\u00e9 7-6 7-5. Ce score dit l’essentiel : entre ces deux services, chaque set se joue sur un d\u00e9tail. Nakashima, 18e mondial et t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie 14, gagne 83,1 % de ses jeux de service sur ses dix derniers matchs, Berrettini 80,7 %. Les retours p\u00e8sent moins lourd des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s : 17 \u00e0 19 % de jeux de retour gagn\u00e9s chacun. Le sc\u00e9nario le plus probable est un match \u00e0 tie-breaks, et le march\u00e9 des jeux le voit pareil : ligne principale \u00e0 25 jeux, presque exactement les 25,6 que projettent les stats de service des deux hommes.<\/p>\n

Cinq matchs chacun, personne n’encha\u00eene<\/h2>\n

Deux victoires et trois d\u00e9faites chacun sur les cinq derniers matchs. La nuance tient au contenu : Nakashima a sorti deux tours de qualification \u00e0 Lyon avant de c\u00e9der en trois sets contre Cobolli, puis a but\u00e9 sur Griekspoor<\/a> \u00e0 Vienne au tie-break du troisi\u00e8me set ; Berrettini, lui, a valid\u00e9 un vrai parcours viennois<\/a>. C’est l’Italien qui a le rythme, l’Am\u00e9ricain la fra\u00eecheur : cinq jours sans match contre trois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nJoueur<\/th>\nTournoi<\/th>\nAdversaire<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
30\/10<\/td>\nBerrettini<\/td>\nVienne, quart<\/td>\nDe Minaur<\/td>\n6-7 2-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
28\/10<\/td>\nNakashima<\/td>\nVienne, 1\/16<\/td>\nGriekspoor<\/td>\n1-6 6-4 6-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
26\/10<\/td>\nBerrettini<\/td>\nVienne, 1\/16<\/td>\nEtcheverry<\/td>\n6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
23\/10<\/td>\nNakashima<\/td>\nLyon (qualif.), quart<\/td>\nCobolli<\/td>\n6-4 4-6 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
22\/10<\/td>\nNakashima<\/td>\nLyon (qualif.), 1\/8<\/td>\nJacquet<\/td>\n6-4 6-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20\/10<\/td>\nNakashima<\/td>\nLyon (qualif.), 1\/16<\/td>\nMedjedovic<\/td>\n7-6 6-7 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20\/10<\/td>\nBerrettini<\/td>\nLyon, 1\/16<\/td>\nJacquet<\/td>\n6-7 5-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11\/10<\/td>\nNakashima<\/td>\nShanghai, 1\/8<\/td>\nBublik<\/td>\n7-6 3-6 6-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
09\/10<\/td>\nBerrettini<\/td>\nShanghai, 1\/16<\/td>\nNakashima<\/td>\n6-7 5-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
07\/10<\/td>\nBerrettini<\/td>\nShanghai, 1\/32<\/td>\nKovacevic<\/td>\n6-7 6-1 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00c0 1,65, je ne vois pas o\u00f9 le march\u00e9 se trompe<\/h2>\n

Nakashima est affich\u00e9 \u00e0 1,65 chez BetMGM, Berrettini \u00e0 2,30 chez Betano, des prix quasi inchang\u00e9s depuis l’ouverture. \u00c0 1,65, le march\u00e9 donne un peu moins de six chances sur dix \u00e0 l’Am\u00e9ricain. Je le vois devant pour les m\u00eames raisons : le service le plus r\u00e9gulier, le dernier duel, la fra\u00eecheur. Je ne le vois pas assez au-dessus de ces 58 % pour que le prix devienne int\u00e9ressant. \u00c0 J-1, rien n’a boug\u00e9 : aucun signal physique d’un c\u00f4t\u00e9 comme de l’autre, et des prix toujours affich\u00e9s \u00e0 1,65 et 2,30. Le march\u00e9 maintient sa lecture, je maintiens la mienne.<\/p>\n

Les autres march\u00e9s non plus : plus de 25 jeux \u00e0 1,85, moins de 25 \u00e0 1,86 chez 1xbet, le handicap de 1,5 jeu \u00e0 1,89 contre 1,91, le score en sets serr\u00e9. Aucun \u00e9cart net entre mon chiffrage et le prix. Sans \u00e9cart, le calculateur de Kelly<\/a> tombe \u00e0 z\u00e9ro : pas de pari, rien n’entre au bilan public<\/a>. Le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match.<\/p>\n

Ce premier tour se regarde plus qu’il ne se joue : deux services au-dessus de 80 % de jeux gagn\u00e9s, des tie-breaks en perspective. 18+, si vous pariez malgr\u00e9 tout, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Berrettini entre en rempla\u00e7ance et sort d\u2019un quart de finale \u00e0 Vienne ; deuxi\u00e8me match du court 2 mardi, face au service de Nakashima, le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match : je ne parie pas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15412,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Nakashima ou Berrettini ? Mon pronostic du 1er tour des Masters de Paris : deux gros services, un rempla\u00e7ant en forme, et un march\u00e9 trop juste pour parier.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"B. Nakashima","ba_away_name":"M. Berrettini","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-03 09:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12176031","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-15411","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"\nNakashima – Berrettini : deux gros services, un march\u00e9 qui a bien lu · Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nakashima ou Berrettini ? 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