{"id":15647,"date":"2026-11-02T22:38:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T21:38:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/montpellier-lyon-le-lou-a-perdu-deux-joueurs-le-mhr-en-compte-onze\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T22:38:40","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T21:38:40","slug":"montpellier-lyon-pronostic-2026-11-07","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/montpellier-lyon-pronostic-2026-11-07\/","title":{"rendered":"Montpellier &#8211; Lyon : le LOU a perdu deux joueurs, le MHR en compte onze"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dimanche, Montpellier a marqu\u00e9 dix essais \u00e0 Castres : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ladepeche.fr\/2026\/11\/01\/montpellier-castres-dix-essais-encaisses-une-defaite-historique-comment-le-co-a-explose-chez-le-mhr-13631074.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">69-10<\/a>, la plus lourde d\u00e9faite de l&#8217;histoire du club tarnais. Lundi, le march\u00e9 a continu\u00e9 d&#8217;avancer dans le m\u00eame sens : Lyon est pass\u00e9 de 7,00 \u00e0 7,50 en victoire s\u00e8che, la double chance nul-ou-Lyon de 5,50 \u00e0 6,50. Montpellier gagnera. Tout se joue dans l&#8217;\u00e9cart, et quinze points et demi de marge, \u00e7a me semble beaucoup.<\/p>\n<h2>Onze absents d&#8217;un c\u00f4t\u00e9, l&#8217;euphorie de l&#8217;autre<\/h2>\n<p>Le 69-10 a fait oublier l&#8217;\u00e9tat de l&#8217;effectif, qui reste charg\u00e9 : pr\u00e8s de onze joueurs indisponibles, et une premi\u00e8re ligne que le staff assume de couvrir en interne plut\u00f4t que de recruter un <a href=\"https:\/\/actu.fr\/sports\/rugby\/top-14\/6-joueurs-absents-plusieurs-mois-pourquoi-montpellier-ne-cherchera-pas-de-joker-medical-malgre-l-hecatombe_64774066.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">joker m\u00e9dical<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lenni Nouchi (ischios) et Florian Verhaeghe (psoas) sont sortis fin octobre pour plusieurs semaines ; le retour de Verhaeghe est annonc\u00e9 proche, sans date.<\/li>\n<li>Mohamed Haouas (pubalgie, trois \u00e0 quatre mois), Jordan Uelese (m\u00e2choire), Gabriel Ngandebe (tendon d&#8217;Achille), Auguste Cadot et Langi Gleeson (genoux) tiennent l&#8217;infirmerie longue, Luka Japaridze ne reprend que le dos.<\/li>\n<li>Dimitri Delibes (abducteurs) reste incertain, et le deuxi\u00e8me ligne Tyler Duguid, retenu dans le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ffr.fr\/actualites\/xv-de-france\/xv-de-france-le-groupe-pour-preparer-le-championnat-des-nations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">groupe de 42 du XV de France<\/a>, serait priv\u00e9 du club le soir m\u00eame : France&#8211;Fidji se joue \u00e0 D\u00e9cines.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>La liste des 42 a \u00e9t\u00e9 remani\u00e9e le 31\/10 : la pr\u00e9sence effective de Duguid sera claire \u00e0 J&#8211;1. \u00c0 onze absents, le souci n&#8217;est pas le quinze de d\u00e9part, c&#8217;est le banc de la derni\u00e8re demi-heure. Contre Castres, cela n&#8217;a pas pes\u00e9. Contre un rival du Top 6, cela p\u00e8se toujours.<\/p>\n<h2>Le LOU ne d\u00e9barque pas pour visiter<\/h2>\n<p>Lyon a referm\u00e9 son mauvais mois : trois d\u00e9faites, puis deux victoires de suite, \u00e0 Bayonne puis contre Vannes, bonus offensif au passage et podium provisoire. Avant ce week-end, les deux clubs avaient 18 points, s\u00e9par\u00e9s par le goal-average : deux candidats au Top 6 qui se passaient la main dans le classement, et les deux ont gagn\u00e9 avec le bonus offensif. Contre Vannes, Baptiste Couilloud a f\u00eat\u00e9 son 75e essai en Top 14 ; Jiuta Wainiqolo a battu 32 d\u00e9fenseurs en octobre.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;infirmerie lyonnaise s&#8217;est alourdie ce week-end : J\u00e9r\u00f4me Rey (entorse du genou droit) et Maxime Gouzou, sortis contre Vannes, sont <a href=\"https:\/\/www.leprogres.fr\/sport\/2026\/11\/02\/jerome-rey-et-maxime-gouzou-ne-joueront-pas-avec-le-lou-a-montpellier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forfaits pour Montpellier<\/a>. Sam Simmonds (op\u00e9r\u00e9) et Thomas Gallo (poignet) sont loin du retour, F\u00e9lix Lambey, Ave Maalo et Tim Hoyt restent sur le flanc, et Micka\u00ebl Guillard, retenu comme Duguid en \u00e9quipe de France, attend la m\u00eame reconfirmation que lui.<\/p>\n<h2>Trois scores pour lire le mois<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/10<\/td>\n<td>Montpellier &#8211; Toulon<\/td>\n<td>28-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>31\/10<\/td>\n<td>Lyon &#8211; Vannes<\/td>\n<td>48-25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/11<\/td>\n<td>Montpellier &#8211; Castres<\/td>\n<td>69-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Deux de ces scores sont sign\u00e9s Montpellier \u00e0 domicile, dont le 69-10 inflig\u00e9 \u00e0 un Castres en pleine d\u00e9route. Le MHR gagne large devant son public du Septeo. Lyon, lui, marque partout o\u00f9 il passe. Un match ferm\u00e9, ce week-end, m&#8217;\u00e9tonnerait.<\/p>\n<h2>Lyon +15,5 \u00e0 1,85 : mon pari<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 voit Montpellier gagnant plus de huit fois sur dix, \u00e0 1,12. La ligne principale du handicap est fix\u00e9e \u00e0 15,5 points : MHR \u00e0 1,90 chez Bet365, Lyon +15,5 \u00e0 1,85 chez 1xbet. Je prends Lyon +15,5 : je lui donne 60 % de chances de s&#8217;incliner de quinze points ou moins, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 le prix juste du march\u00e9 en donne 50,7 %. Le 69-10 nourrit la cote plus qu&#8217;il ne d\u00e9crit le match : pris contre un Castres en d\u00e9route, il ne dit rien du duel de conqu\u00eate que Lyon peut encore poser. Quinze points et demi, c&#8217;est demander au MHR de dominer de bout en bout, et son banc de fin de match me laisse dubitatif.<\/p>\n<p>La mise est calcul\u00e9e par le site : 0,75 unit\u00e9, 75 $, pour 63,75 $ de gain si le pari passe. Lyon gagne, fait match nul ou perd de quinze points ou moins : pari gagn\u00e9. Lyon perd de seize points ou plus : 75 $ perdus. La ligne n&#8217;est cot\u00e9e en entier que par deux bookmakers, avec plus de 8 % de marge : une partie de l&#8217;\u00e9cart que je crois voir part en commission, d&#8217;o\u00f9 une mise mesur\u00e9e. Pour refaire le calcul chez vous, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> est l\u00e0 ; le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> tient le compte de mes paris, gagn\u00e9s comme perdus. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le MHR sort d&#8217;un 69-10 et reste favori \u00e0 1,12, mais onze absents et un Lyon en regain de forme me font prendre Lyon +15,5 \u00e0 1,85 chez 1xbet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":15648,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Montpellier sort d&#8217;un 69-10 et reste favori \u00e0 1,12 : je prends Lyon +15,5 \u00e0 1,85 chez 1xbet, mise de 0,75 unit\u00e9 (75 $). Analyse du handicap.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Montpellier","ba_away_name":"Lyon","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-07 15:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54137","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pmke8nlvjcb","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Lyon +15,5","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":15.5,"odds":1.85,"stake_units":0.75,"stake_amount":75,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":63.75,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-02 21:38:47","settled_at":"","probability":0.6,"p_market":0.5068,"p_used":0.5534,"edge":0.0238,"market_margin":0.0815,"market_books":2,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-15647","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Montpellier &#8211; Lyon : le LOU a perdu deux joueurs, le MHR en compte onze &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Montpellier sort d&#8217;un 69-10 et reste favori \u00e0 1,12 : je prends Lyon +15,5 \u00e0 1,85 chez 1xbet, mise de 0,75 unit\u00e9 (75 $). 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Analyse du handicap.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/matchs\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/montpellier-lyon-pronostic-2026-11-07\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/matchs\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/montpellier-lyon-pronostic-2026-11-07\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/matchs\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/montpellier-lyon-pronostic-2026-11-07\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/carte-montpellier-lyon-fr-2adcf2f9.webp\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/11\\\/carte-montpellier-lyon-fr-2adcf2f9.webp\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":675,\"caption\":\"Montpellier \u2013 Lyon \u00b7 Top 14 \u00b7 Samedi 7 novembre \u00b7 16 h 35\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/matchs\\\/rugby\\\/top-14\\\/montpellier-lyon-pronostic-2026-11-07\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Matchs\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/matchs\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Montpellier &#8211; Lyon : le LOU a perdu deux joueurs, le MHR en compte onze\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/\",\"name\":\"Bankroll Atlas\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Bankroll Atlas\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/bankroll-atlas-logo.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Bankroll Atlas\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bankrollatlas.com\\\/fr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/dfb8d78827a13db7597f7b9903824c8b\",\"name\":\"Thomas Lacombe\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/1d13f866bb6e0061897d347813b613cffe68e8c3e6edd0669e0082b37c99a140?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/1d13f866bb6e0061897d347813b613cffe68e8c3e6edd0669e0082b37c99a140?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/1d13f866bb6e0061897d347813b613cffe68e8c3e6edd0669e0082b37c99a140?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Thomas Lacombe\"},\"description\":\"Ancien demi de m\u00eal\u00e9e amateur, Thomas a prolong\u00e9 son engagement dans le rugby en accompagnant une \u00e9quipe de jeunes. 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