{"id":15662,"date":"2026-11-02T22:42:46","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T21:42:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/toulon-stade-francais-quatre-victoires-pour-le-rct-deux-duels-perdus-face-a-paris\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T22:42:58","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T21:42:58","slug":"rc-toulonnais-stade-francais-paris-pronostic-2026-11-07","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/rc-toulonnais-stade-francais-paris-pronostic-2026-11-07\/","title":{"rendered":"Toulon &#8211; Stade Fran\u00e7ais : quatre victoires pour le RCT, deux duels perdus face \u00e0 Paris"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La derni\u00e8re fois que le Stade Fran\u00e7ais s&#8217;est d\u00e9plac\u00e9 \u00e0 Mayol, il est reparti vainqueur. Toulon a depuis empil\u00e9 quatre victoires de suite, mais dans le duel, Paris compte deux succ\u00e8s d&#8217;affil\u00e9e. Au classement, les deux clubs se suivent, <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/calendrier-et-resultats\/2026-2027\/j9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">huiti\u00e8me et neuvi\u00e8me<\/a>, et l&#8217;affiche se joue sous le Troph\u00e9e Christophe Dominici que le RCT veut reprendre \u00e0 son avantage. Je prends le +10,5 parisien, \u00e0 mise minimale : la feuille de match varoise ne ressemble pas \u00e0 la dynamique varoise.<\/p>\n<h2>La s\u00e9rie tourne, l&#8217;infirmerie d\u00e9borde<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Toulon \u00e0 Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>Top 14<\/td>\n<td>25-24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Toulon &#8211; Pau<\/td>\n<td>Top 14<\/td>\n<td>41-20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Toulon &#8211; \u00c9dimbourg<\/td>\n<td>Challenge Cup<\/td>\n<td>27-17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Toulon &#8211; Racing 92<\/td>\n<td>Top 14<\/td>\n<td>29-15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Toulon \u00e0 Montpellier<\/td>\n<td>Top 14<\/td>\n<td>0-28<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Le revers du tableau, c&#8217;est l&#8217;infirmerie : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/29\/top-14-lewis-ludlam-luka-keletaona-avant-perpignan-toulon-a-connu-une-hecatombe-de-blesses-lors-de-lentrainement-du-jour-13626279.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Juan Ignacio Brex (biceps op\u00e9r\u00e9) et Judica\u00ebl Cancoriet (luxation de l&#8217;\u00e9paule)<\/a> sont out plusieurs mois, Gabin Villi\u00e8re et Ga\u00ebl Dr\u00e9an les rejoignent sur la liste des longs absents, Rayan Rebbadj, Matthias Halagahu et Dany Priso ach\u00e8vent leur r\u00e9\u00e9ducation, et le capitaine Lewis Ludlam a quitt\u00e9 l&#8217;entra\u00eenement le 29\/10, haut de cuisse. Depuis le d\u00e9part de Pierre Mignoni d\u00e9but octobre, Franck Az\u00e9ma tient la barre seul. Ajoutez les internationaux du doublon, une dizaine de joueurs, et le RCT jouera samedi en \u00e9quipe remani\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<h2>Le Paris qui gagne \u00e0 Mayol existe encore<\/h2>\n<p>Le Stade Fran\u00e7ais n&#8217;a gagn\u00e9 aucun match \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur cette saison. Il reste sur deux victoires contre Toulon, <a href=\"https:\/\/lerugby.com\/match\/stade-francais-paris-toulon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dont ce 46-27 arrach\u00e9 \u00e0 Mayol en mars<\/a>, et il sort d&#8217;une <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stade.fr\/equipe-premiere\/actualites\/la-victoire-bonifiee-contre-la-rochelle\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">victoire bonifi\u00e9e contre La Rochelle<\/a>, 43-24, six essais. Les revers \u00e0 Castres (8-16) et Bayonne (32-35) rappellent le travers, mais sur la saison Paris marque plus que Toulon : 25 points par match, sixi\u00e8me attaque du championnat, contre 22.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;infirmerie parisienne compte Giorgi Melikidze (mollet, plusieurs semaines), Lucas Peyresblanques (cinq \u00e0 six mois redout\u00e9s), Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Julien Delbouis et Peniasi Dakuwaqa. Le talonneur Giacomo Nicotera, auteur d&#8217;un tripl\u00e9 contre La Rochelle, file en Italie. Une source du 29\/10 pr\u00eatait Ward, Tani Vili et Barr\u00e9 \u00ab rel\u00e2ch\u00e9s \u00bb pour le week-end ; c&#8217;\u00e9tait celui de la J8, et rien ne garantit le m\u00eame retour pour la J9. Je ne les ai pas compt\u00e9s dans ma lecture.<\/p>\n<h2>Paris +10,5 \u00e0 1,80 : mise minimale<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 donne Toulon \u00e0 1,28, Paris \u00e0 4,33, et la ligne principale du handicap \u00e0 10,5 points : Toulon 1,90, Paris +10,5 \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365. Je donne 58 % \u00e0 Paris de rester dans les dix points, le prix juste du march\u00e9 en donne 51,4 %. L&#8217;\u00e9cart est mince : apr\u00e8s la pond\u00e9ration du site, l&#8217;avantage fond et la mise tombe au minimum, 0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $, pour 20 $ de gain. Paris gagne, fait nul ou perd de dix points ou moins : pari gagn\u00e9. Paris perd de onze points et plus : 25 $ perdus.<\/p>\n<p>Je le dis franchement : le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match, je n&#8217;ai pas d&#8217;avantage net \u00e0 vendre. Je penche pour le handicap parisien parce qu&#8217;un Toulon priv\u00e9 d&#8217;une dizaine d&#8217;internationaux et de ses longs absents ne creuse pas dix points face \u00e0 une \u00e9quipe qui marque m\u00eame en d\u00e9placement. La ligne n&#8217;est cot\u00e9e en entier que par un seul bookmaker, avec plus de 8 % de marge : c&#8217;est cher, une raison de plus de ne pas forcer la mise. Pour v\u00e9rifier le dimensionnement, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> est l\u00e0 ; le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> garde le compte, gagn\u00e9 comme perdu. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Toulon encha\u00eene quatre victoires et re\u00e7oit Paris, mais le Stade Fran\u00e7ais compte deux succ\u00e8s d&#8217;affil\u00e9e dans le duel : je prends le +10,5 parisien \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":15665,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Toulon &#8211; Stade Fran\u00e7ais : le RCT favori \u00e0 1,28, je prends le Stade Fran\u00e7ais +10,5 \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365, mise minimale de 0,25 unit\u00e9 (25 $).","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"RC Toulonnais","ba_away_name":"Stade Fran\u00e7ais Paris","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-07 15:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54138","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pgplhxmmj4h","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Stade Fran\u00e7ais Paris +10,5","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":10.5,"odds":1.8,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":20,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-02 21:43:06","settled_at":"","probability":0.58,"p_market":0.5135,"p_used":0.5468,"edge":-0.0159,"market_margin":0.0819,"market_books":1,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-15662","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Toulon &#8211; 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