{"id":16317,"date":"2026-11-03T22:45:59","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T21:45:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/van-assche-tien-apres-le-6-3-6-1-de-vienne-les-jambes-ont-change-de-camp\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T02:05:54","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T01:05:54","slug":"van-assche-tien-pronostic-2026-11-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/van-assche-tien-pronostic-2026-11-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Van Assche \u2013 Tien : apr\u00e8s le 6-3 6-1 de Vienne, les jambes ont chang\u00e9 de camp"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le 26 octobre \u00e0 Vienne, Learner Tien n&#8217;a laiss\u00e9 que deux jeux \u00e0 Luca van Assche, 6-3 6-1. Neuf jours plus tard, le march\u00e9 garde le duel en m\u00e9moire : Tien reste le favori, \u00e0 1,53 chez Bwin mercredi. Ce que le prix n&#8217;a pas encore compt\u00e9, c&#8217;est ce que la semaine a co\u00fbt\u00e9 \u00e0 chacun. Mercredi, ce deuxi\u00e8me tour du Masters de Paris se joue en deuxi\u00e8me match du court 1, apr\u00e8s Bellucci-Rinderknech, sur des jambes qui ne sont plus les m\u00eames.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux semaines qui divergent<\/h2>\n<p>Leur parcours depuis Vienne, vu de mercredi :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th><\/th>\n<th>Luca van Assche<\/th>\n<th>Learner Tien<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Premier tour \u00e0 Paris<\/td>\n<td>Navone battu 6-3 7-5 en 1h55, lundi<\/td>\n<td>Vallejo battu 6-3 5-7 7-5 en 2h20, mardi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Repos avant ce tour<\/td>\n<td>deux jours pleins<\/td>\n<td>moins de 24 heures<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Enjeu<\/td>\n<td>aucun : la saison est d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9ussie<\/td>\n<td>rester dans le top 20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Un court plus rapide que l&#8217;an dernier<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00e9dric Pioline l&#8217;a assum\u00e9 avant la premi\u00e8re balle : la surface de la Plenitude Arena est <a href=\"https:\/\/en.tennistemple.com\/actu\/rolex-paris-masters-cedric-pioline-announces-a\/wt6g\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab nettement plus rapide que l&#8217;an dernier \u00bb<\/a>, un indice vis\u00e9 autour de 40 contre 35 en 2025. Les balles Dunlop, impos\u00e9es par l&#8217;ATP sur tout l&#8217;automne, compl\u00e8tent le tableau. Sur un dur aussi vif, la premi\u00e8re balle prend l&#8217;ascendant et les breaks se rar\u00e9fient : deux joueurs qui tiennent leur service fabriquent des matchs longs, m\u00eame en deux sets gagnants.<\/p>\n<h2>Van Assche a servi, et dormi depuis<\/h2>\n<p>Lundi contre Mariano Navone, le Fran\u00e7ais a d\u00e9croch\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/the-masters-1000-with-the-best-atmosphere-van-assche-beats-navone-for-first-paris-win-865053.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sa premi\u00e8re victoire dans ce tournoi<\/a>, \u00e0 sa quatri\u00e8me tentative, deux passages par les qualifications compris. Le service n&#8217;a pas c\u00e9d\u00e9 un jeu : dix jeux de service sur dix, trois balles de break sauv\u00e9es, 86 % de points derri\u00e8re la premi\u00e8re balle, 7 aces. Il joue lib\u00e9r\u00e9, et le dit : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports.fr\/tennis\/rolex-paris-masters-premiere-pour-luca-van-assche-1059428.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab La fin de saison, c&#8217;est du bonus, car j&#8217;ai gagn\u00e9 ce que je devais gagner \u00bb<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Tien favori, sur des jambes de mardi<\/h2>\n<p>La hi\u00e9rarchie, elle, tient : \u00e0 Vienne, Tien n&#8217;a pas perdu son service une seule fois contre van Assche. Mardi, pourtant, il a eu besoin de tout pour se d\u00e9faire de Daniel Vallejo, lucky loser entr\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le forfait de Tsitsipas (\u00e9paule droite) : un set l\u00e2ch\u00e9 5-7, une fin de match accroch\u00e9e conclue 7-5. S&#8217;y ajoute un bras gauche qu&#8217;il surveille depuis l&#8217;\u00e9t\u00e9, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisworldusa.org\/tennis\/news\/Tennis_Stories\/168769\/learner-tien-reveals-irritating-injury-he-has-managed-for-several-weeks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab c&#8217;est toujours l\u00e0 \u00bb<\/a>, dit-il, une g\u00eane qui gr\u00e8ve parfois sa pleine puissance au service. Mardi, le bras a pourtant tenu : 10 aces contre Vallejo, 69 % de points derri\u00e8re la premi\u00e8re balle. Il doit gagner ce match pour ne pas sortir du top 20, son meilleur rang, conquis en mai. Et le march\u00e9 s&#8217;ajuste d\u00e9j\u00e0 : van Assche est pass\u00e9 de 3,34 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture \u00e0 2,75 chez Bet365.<\/p>\n<h2>Je prends plus de 22,5 jeux \u00e0 1,936<\/h2>\n<p>Ce match a le profil d&#8217;un duel de services sur court rapide : van Assche vient de tenir dix jeux de suite, Tien garde une premi\u00e8re balle qui tient m\u00eame \u00e0 bout de jambes, et la Plenitude Arena est l&#8217;une des surfaces les plus vives de la saison. Vienne n&#8217;a compt\u00e9 que seize jeux, et c&#8217;est pour \u00e7a que je reste prudente : 55 % au d\u00e9passement de 22,5 jeux, pas plus. \u00c0 1,936 chez 1xbet mardi soir, le march\u00e9 est \u00e0 pile ou face : l&#8217;avantage est r\u00e9el mais mince, et la ligne a d\u00e9j\u00e0 gliss\u00e9 depuis son ouverture \u00e0 2,01.<\/p>\n<p>La mise suit l&#8217;avantage : 0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $. 23 jeux ou plus, le pari gagne (+23,40 $) ; 22 jeux ou moins, il perd (-25 $) ; abandon ou forfait, mise rembours\u00e9e. Ce que je regarde : des jeux de service qui s&#8217;encha\u00eenent, un premier set disput\u00e9, peut-\u00eatre un tie-break. Si Tien l&#8217;emporte aussi sec qu&#8217;\u00e0 Vienne, je perdrai ce pari sans le regretter ; le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> a calibr\u00e9 la mise sur un petit avantage, et mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> affichera le r\u00e9sultat tel quel. 18+ : ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Neuf jours apr\u00e8s le 6-3 6-1 de Vienne, Learner Tien reste favori mais rejoue moins de 24 heures apr\u00e8s un match de 2h20 ; Luca van Assche a deux jours de repos. Je prends plus de 22,5 jeux \u00e0 1,936 chez 1xbet, 0,25 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16458,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Van Assche \u2013 Tien, Masters de Paris : Tien favori mais court en jambes, van Assche frais. 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