{"id":16337,"date":"2026-11-03T22:51:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T21:51:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/berrettini-humbert-minuit-passe-pour-lun-deux-balles-de-match-sauvees-pour-lautre\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T02:10:53","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T01:10:53","slug":"berrettini-humbert-pronostic-2026-11-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/berrettini-humbert-pronostic-2026-11-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Berrettini \u2013 Humbert : minuit pass\u00e9 pour l&#8217;un, deux balles de match sauv\u00e9es pour l&#8217;autre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Deux premiers tours, deux \u00e9preuves. Matteo Berrettini a sorti le t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie num\u00e9ro 14, Brandon Nakashima, 6-4 3-6 7-6 en 2h10 mardi, en sauvant deux balles de match dans le tie-break final ; Ugo Humbert a eu besoin de 2h38 et de trois sets contre Botic van de Zandschulp lundi, deux balles de match manqu\u00e9es au passage, fin de match apr\u00e8s minuit. Le march\u00e9 tranche : Humbert favori. Je vois ce match plus serr\u00e9 que le march\u00e9, et je le joue en jeux.<\/p>\n<h2>Berrettini tient huit jeux de service sur dix<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;Italien n&#8217;avait jamais gagn\u00e9 ici : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/scores\/current\/paris\/352\/results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sa victoire sur Nakashima<\/a> est <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/berrettini-completes-his-masters-1000-set-by-beating-nakashima-in-paris-865328.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">la premi\u00e8re de sa carri\u00e8re \u00e0 Paris<\/a>, apr\u00e8s un quart de finale \u00e0 Vienne la semaine pass\u00e9e. <a href=\"https:\/\/sport.quotidiano.net\/en\/tennis\/berrettini-zampata-al-fotofinish-nakashima-ko-e-secondo-turno-a-parigi-ntldrku8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Deux balles de match sauv\u00e9es<\/a> dans un tie-break gagn\u00e9 10-8, \u00e7a laisse des marques, et \u00e7a dit aussi la r\u00e9sistance. Ce qui compte mercredi, c&#8217;est le service : 81,6 % de jeux de service tenus sur ses dix derniers matchs, plus d&#8217;un set sur trois r\u00e9gl\u00e9 au tie-break, des matchs qui tournent \u00e0 26 jeux. Sur le dur abrasif de la Plenitude Arena, cette premi\u00e8re balle p\u00e8se. Mercredi, il joue le dernier match du court 1, derri\u00e8re Borges-Khachanov : pas d&#8217;heure de d\u00e9but fix\u00e9e, et pas de nuit raccourcie pour autant.<\/p>\n<h2>Humbert a gagn\u00e9 lundi, et l&#8217;a pay\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Ugo Humbert, finaliste ici en 2024 et absent l&#8217;an dernier (dos), a retrouv\u00e9 ses tribunes et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/humbert-survives-van-de-zandschulp-on-his-paris-return-and-stays-on-course-for-an-alcaraz-rematch-865205.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a failli sortir d\u00e8s le premier tour<\/a> : deux balles de match manqu\u00e9es dans le deuxi\u00e8me set, trois sets, 2h38, une fin de match apr\u00e8s minuit. Un jour de r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration de plus que Berrettini, mais une nuit raccourcie et un corps sollicit\u00e9. Il vise le troisi\u00e8me tour, sans doute une revanche contre Alcaraz ; Berrettini, hors course pour Turin, joue aussi pour convaincre le capitaine italien avant la Coupe Davis. Des deux motivations, aucune ne marque des jeux de service.<\/p>\n<h2>Le seul duel en salle est all\u00e9 \u00e0 Humbert<\/h2>\n<p>Trois confrontations directes :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Ann\u00e9e<\/th>\n<th>Tournoi<\/th>\n<th>Vainqueur<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>2022<\/td>\n<td>ATP Cup<\/td>\n<td>Matteo Berrettini<\/td>\n<td>6-4 7-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2023<\/td>\n<td>US Open<\/td>\n<td>Matteo Berrettini<\/td>\n<td>6-4 6-2 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2025<\/td>\n<td>Stockholm<\/td>\n<td>Ugo Humbert<\/td>\n<td>7-6 6-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Les deux victoires de Berrettini datent de l&#8217;US Open 2023 et de la ATP Cup 2022. Le seul pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent en salle, Stockholm en 2025, est all\u00e9 \u00e0 Humbert. La p\u00e9riode r\u00e9cente penche pourtant c\u00f4t\u00e9 italien : Humbert n&#8217;a tenu que 77,3 % de ses jeux de service sur ses dix derniers matchs, et ses breaks (19 % des jeux de retour) rattrapent \u00e0 peine l&#8217;\u00e9cart.<\/p>\n<h2>Je prends Berrettini +0,5 jeu \u00e0 1,95<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 des vainqueurs a choisi : 1,87 pour Humbert chez Bwin, 2,06 pour Berrettini chez Unibet, mercredi. Le march\u00e9 des jeux, lui, ne choisit pas : Berrettini +0,5 jeu, la ligne principale, cote 1,95 chez Unibet, presque une chance sur deux. C&#8217;est l\u00e0 que je me place. Je donne 54 % \u00e0 Berrettini pour finir avec au moins autant de jeux qu&#8217;Humbert ; les chiffres de service seuls m&#8217;en feraient donner plus, mais le public et le jour de repos suppl\u00e9mentaire du Fran\u00e7ais comptent, et je les ai compt\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari passe si Berrettini gagne au moins autant de jeux qu&#8217;Humbert, match tr\u00e8s serr\u00e9 ou victoire de l&#8217;Italien : +23,75 $. Il perd si Humbert finit avec un jeu d&#8217;avance ou plus : -25 $. Un abandon ou un forfait rembourse la mise. Mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9 (25 $) : la valeur apr\u00e8s ajustement au march\u00e9 est mince, et la mise le dit. Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> garde tout align\u00e9, et mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> affichera le r\u00e9sultat tel quel. 18+ : ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Matteo Berrettini a sauv\u00e9 deux balles de match mardi, Ugo Humbert a fini apr\u00e8s minuit lundi ; le march\u00e9 pr\u00e9f\u00e8re le Fran\u00e7ais. Je prends Berrettini +0,5 jeu \u00e0 1,95 chez Unibet, 0,25 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16463,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Berrettini \u2013 Humbert : Humbert favori \u00e0 1,87, mais le service de Berrettini tient. 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