{"id":16357,"date":"2026-11-03T23:11:02","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T22:11:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/djokovic-hijikata-le-lendemain-de-2h35-sur-un-court-qui-glisse\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T02:08:56","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T01:08:56","slug":"djokovic-hijikata-pronostic-2026-11-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/djokovic-hijikata-pronostic-2026-11-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Djokovic &#8211; Hijikata : le lendemain de 2h35, sur un court qui glisse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Trois balles de break sauv\u00e9es \u00e0 4-4 dans le deuxi\u00e8me set, deux heures trente-cinq sur le court et une \u00e9paule droite mass\u00e9e entre les jeux : le premier tour de Novak Djokovic \u00e0 Paris s&#8217;est jou\u00e9 jusqu&#8217;au bout. Mercredi, troisi\u00e8me match du court central derri\u00e8re Zverev-Musetti, il rejoue contre un qualifi\u00e9 qui n&#8217;a plus disput\u00e9 de match depuis lundi.<\/p>\n<h2>Mardi a laiss\u00e9 des traces<\/h2>\n<p>Le score contre Valentin Vacherot, 6-7(5) 7-5 6-1, ressemble \u00e0 un match r\u00e9gl\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le tie-break perdu. Il ne l&#8217;\u00e9tait pas : Djokovic a \u00e9cart\u00e9 trois balles de break \u00e0 4-4 dans la deuxi\u00e8me manche avant de faire la diff\u00e9rence, et les deux joueurs ont pris un temps mort m\u00e9dical dans ce set, celui du Serbe, \u00e0 1-2, pour un massage de l&#8217;\u00e9paule droite. \u00c0 39 ans, rejouer le lendemain d&#8217;un match long se paie parfois au troisi\u00e8me set.<\/p>\n<p>Le reste de la saison donne le d\u00e9cor : des ennuis de sant\u00e9 rest\u00e9s flous, une \u00e9limination au premier tour de l&#8217;US Open, et des propos plus sereins depuis quelques semaines, ceux d&#8217;un joueur qui dit aller mieux depuis un mois et se sentir \u00ab proche de r\u00e9soudre \u00bb ses probl\u00e8mes. Au classement de la course \u00e0 Turin, il est 11e : il lui faudrait au moins les demi-finales ici pour rester en course. On lui a demand\u00e9 si Turin \u00e9tait l&#8217;objectif du bout de saison ; il a r\u00e9pondu \u00ab non \u00bb, et parle de gagner match par match (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/no-reassured-after-vacherot-djokovic-plays-down-turin-and-takes-it-match-by-match-865384.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tennis Majors<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>La salle ajoute une contrainte que Djokovic a nomm\u00e9e lui-m\u00eame : tr\u00e8s rapide cette ann\u00e9e, \u00ab comme de la glace \u00bb, au point que Vacherot y a servi 22 aces (<a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.com\/Sports\/wireStory\/djokovic-overcomes-scare-late-2nd-set-beat-vacherot-137815826\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABC News<\/a>). Quand le court glisse, le retour arrive tard et les jeux de service p\u00e8sent plus lourd.<\/p>\n<h2>Hijikata a gagn\u00e9 vite, puis s&#8217;est arr\u00eat\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Rinky Hijikata, 85e mondial, a franchi les qualifications en trois matchs sur trois jours : Faria, Kopriva, puis Darderi pli\u00e9 6-2 6-2 en 1h04 lundi (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/qualifier-hijikata-routs-darderi-to-earn-a-shot-at-djokovic-or-vacherot-865001.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tennis Majors<\/a>). Seizi\u00e8me victoire de la saison, son record personnel. Mardi, il s&#8217;est repos\u00e9. La semaine lui a co\u00fbt\u00e9 six sets et 56 jeux ; celle de Djokovic, deux matchs et 70 jeux, dont un mardi qui a compt\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Le jeu de l&#8217;Australien colle \u00e0 cette surface : il reste bas, slice beaucoup et monte au filet, \u00ab tr\u00e8s habile \u00bb l\u00e0-haut selon Djokovic. Les duels ne lui ont rien laiss\u00e9 : deux confrontations sur dur, deux d\u00e9faites en deux sets, \u00e0 Brisbane fin 2024 (6-3 6-3) et \u00e0 Miami en 2025 (6-0 7-6).<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Joueur<\/th>\n<th>Tournoi<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>29\/10<\/td>\n<td>N. Djokovic<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e2le, 1\/8<\/td>\n<td>J-L. Struff<\/td>\n<td>D 7-6 5-7 6-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>28\/10<\/td>\n<td>N. Djokovic<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e2le, 1\/16<\/td>\n<td>U. Humbert<\/td>\n<td>V 4-6 6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>09\/10<\/td>\n<td>N. Djokovic<\/td>\n<td>Shanghai, 1\/32<\/td>\n<td>H. Hurkacz<\/td>\n<td>D 4-6 3-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/10<\/td>\n<td>N. Djokovic<\/td>\n<td>P\u00e9kin, 1\/4<\/td>\n<td>A. Zverev<\/td>\n<td>V 4-6 6-4 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/11<\/td>\n<td>R. Hijikata<\/td>\n<td>Paris, qualif.<\/td>\n<td>V. Kopriva<\/td>\n<td>V 7-6(5) 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>31\/10<\/td>\n<td>R. Hijikata<\/td>\n<td>Paris, qualif.<\/td>\n<td>J. Faria<\/td>\n<td>V 6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>28\/10<\/td>\n<td>R. Hijikata<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e2le, 1\/16<\/td>\n<td>T. Fritz<\/td>\n<td>D 4-6 6-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,27, le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Djokovic est affich\u00e9 \u00e0 1,27 chez Unibet mercredi, environ quatre chances sur cinq pour lui. Hijikata vaut 4,50 chez Betano, ouvert \u00e0 5,30 et raccourci depuis. La ligne des jeux, 22, est cot\u00e9e \u00e0 1,82 pour le plus et 1,89 pour le moins : le march\u00e9 h\u00e9site entre le favori qui l&#8217;exp\u00e9die en deux sets et le joueur de coupe qui accroche chaque mise en jeu.<\/p>\n<h2>Pas de pari : le march\u00e9 a bien lu<\/h2>\n<p>J&#8217;ai fait mes comptes avant de regarder les prix : 79 % pour Djokovic, 45 % pour plus de 22,5 jeux, 49 % pour Hijikata avec 4 jeux de handicap. Report\u00e9s sur les cotes, aucun de ces chiffres ne laisse d&#8217;\u00e9cart net : \u00e0 ces prix, il n&#8217;y a rien \u00e0 prendre. Parier ici reviendrait \u00e0 payer le favoritisme du Serbe sans rien en \u00e9change.<\/p>\n<p>Je passe mon tour, et je garde la lecture plut\u00f4t que le pari : ce match dira si le corps de Djokovic tient l&#8217;encha\u00eenement. S&#8217;il sert et retourne au rythme de mardi jusqu&#8217;au bout, l&#8217;alerte est derri\u00e8re lui et sa semaine de Paris s&#8217;ouvre ; si l&#8217;\u00e9paule revient dans le match, elle s&#8217;arr\u00eate l\u00e0. Mes paris suivants, je les prends l\u00e0 o\u00f9 je vois un avantage : la <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">liste est publique<\/a>, et le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calcul de la mise<\/a> aussi.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Djokovic a battu Vacherot mardi en 2h35, \u00e9paule droite mass\u00e9e, et rejoue mercredi contre le qualifi\u00e9 Hijikata. Je lis ce match ; le march\u00e9 l&#8217;a bien lu, et je ne parie pas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16468,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Djokovic &#8211; Hijikata, 2e tour du Masters de Paris : lecture du match, fatigue du Serbe, cotes, et pourquoi il n&#8217;y a pas de pari.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Novak Djokovic","ba_away_name":"Rinky Hijikata","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-04 14:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12177026","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-16357","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Djokovic &#8211; 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