{"id":16420,"date":"2026-11-03T23:44:49","date_gmt":"2026-11-03T22:44:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/la-rochelle-bayonne-pendant-le-doublon-neuf-points-davance-a-deflandre\/"},"modified":"2026-11-03T23:45:09","modified_gmt":"2026-11-03T22:45:09","slug":"la-rochelle-bayonne-pronostic-2026-11-08","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/la-rochelle-bayonne-pronostic-2026-11-08\/","title":{"rendered":"La Rochelle \u2013 Bayonne : pendant le doublon, neuf points d\u2019avance \u00e0 Deflandre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>France re\u00e7oit les Fidji samedi, le multiplex a pris le prime time du samedi soir et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbypass.com\/fr\/news\/amenagement-calendrier-bleus-france-top-14-prod2-novembre-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">le calendrier de la neuvi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e a \u00e9t\u00e9 am\u00e9nag\u00e9<\/a> : La Rochelle &#8211; Bayonne ferme le week-end \u00e0 Deflandre, sur Canal+. Les deux \u00e9quipes y arrivent avec une d\u00e9faite du m\u00eame jour, le 31 octobre, mais pas avec le m\u00eame match : 43-24 \u00e0 Paris pour La Rochelle, 19-14 \u00e0 Bordeaux pour Bayonne (<a href=\"https:\/\/progrugby.com\/match\/la-rochelle-bayonne-sur-quelle-chaine-top-14-08-11-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ProgRugby<\/a>). Un point les s\u00e9pare au classement apr\u00e8s la huiti\u00e8me journ\u00e9e, Bayonne 7e, La Rochelle 9e. Le march\u00e9 a tranch\u00e9 sans attendre : La Rochelle favorite \u00e0 1,30 chez 1xbet mardi matin, \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s trois chances sur quatre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le doublon a pris les deux vestiaires<\/h2>\n<p>La fen\u00eatre de novembre tombe sur les deux effectifs. Au comptage du 29 octobre, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/29\/top-14-club-par-club-quels-sont-les-internationaux-convoques-par-leur-selection-en-novembre-et-qui-seront-potentiellement-indisponibles-lors-des-13625220.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dix Rochelais et huit Bayonnais<\/a> \u00e9taient convoqu\u00e9s par leurs s\u00e9lections, certains marqu\u00e9s \u00ab rel\u00e2ch\u00e9s \u00bb pour le week-end. La premi\u00e8re convocation de Charles Kante Samba avec le XV de France, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.staderochelais.com\/actualites\/news\/actualites\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">annonc\u00e9e le 2 novembre<\/a>, s&#8217;y ajoute. Aucun groupe n&#8217;est publi\u00e9, aucune infirmerie n&#8217;a \u00e9t\u00e9 actualis\u00e9e apr\u00e8s le 31 octobre : qui tiendra la feuille de match dimanche soir, personne ne le sait encore.<\/p>\n<p>Ce que disaient les listes avant le d\u00e9placement \u00e0 Paris :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>c\u00f4t\u00e9 rochelais, le point infirmerie du 30 octobre portait <a href=\"https:\/\/www.staderochelais.com\/actualites\/news\/le-point-infirmerie-a-la-veille-de-paris\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">onze joueurs<\/a>, dont Hastoy (cheville), meilleur r\u00e9alisateur de l&#8217;\u00e9quipe, Skelton, Seuteni et Danty ;<\/li>\n<li>le relev\u00e9 d&#8217;Allrugby au 3 novembre monte \u00e0 quatorze, en ajoutant Kriel, Berjon et Le Garrec (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.allrugby.com\/competitions\/top-14\/indisponibilites.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Allrugby<\/a>) ;<\/li>\n<li>c\u00f4t\u00e9 bayonnais, trois indisponibles seulement : Castillon, Erbinartegaray et Johnson.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Deux d\u00e9faites le m\u00eame soir, deux \u00e9tats diff\u00e9rents<\/h2>\n<p>43-24 \u00e0 Paris, 19-14 \u00e0 Bordeaux : les scores ne racontent pas le m\u00eame match. La Rochelle a l\u00e2ch\u00e9 prise, Bayonne a tenu quatre-vingts minutes chez les Bordelais. Sur les cinq derniers matchs, la <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/feuille-de-match\/2026-2027\/j9\/11877-la-rochelle-bayonne\/face-a-face\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">feuille de match LNR<\/a> donne deux victoires \u00e0 chacun. La forme se vaut ; la mani\u00e8re, non.<\/p>\n<h2>Huit victoires partout, et la derni\u00e8re pour Bayonne<\/h2>\n<p>Dix-sept confrontations, huit victoires La Rochelle, huit Bayonne, un nul : le face-\u00e0-face est d&#8217;une \u00e9galit\u00e9 rare. La derni\u00e8re rencontre, le 28 mars, est all\u00e9e \u00e0 Bayonne, 26-15. Je ne lis pas dans ce bilan l&#8217;\u00e9cart d&#8217;un grand favori.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Bayonne +8,5 \u00e0 1,90, mise minimale<\/h2>\n<p>Le nul est \u00e0 21,00 chez Betano, la victoire bayonnaise \u00e0 4,00 chez Betway, et ces prix ont \u00e0 peine boug\u00e9 depuis l&#8217;ouverture. Moi, la question n&#8217;est pas qui gagne, c&#8217;est de combien : un favori sans groupe connu, une infirmerie d\u00e9j\u00e0 charg\u00e9e, et en face le m\u00eame bilan de forme. Pourquoi neuf points d&#8217;\u00e9cart ? Je donne 55 % de chances \u00e0 Bayonne de gagner, faire nul ou perdre de huit points au plus ; la cote de 1,90 chez 1xbet en promet un peu moins de 53 %.<\/p>\n<p>Concr\u00e8tement, pour 0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $ : Bayonne gagne, fait nul ou perd de huit points au plus, le pari est gagn\u00e9, 22,50 $ nets ; La Rochelle gagne de neuf points ou plus, il est perdu, moins 25 $. Pas de demi-mise ni de remboursement sur cette ligne.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;\u00e9cart que je vois est mince, et le march\u00e9 ne le nie pas : une fois ma probabilit\u00e9 confront\u00e9e \u00e0 la sienne, la mise tombe au minimum, 0,25 unit\u00e9. J&#8217;assume : deux bookmakers seulement cotent ce handicap, la marge y est plus large qu&#8217;ailleurs, et je ne lui confie que le minimum. La logique de la mise est dans le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> ; mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> enregistrera ce pari tel quel, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu. 18+ : ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le doublon international d\u00e9place la neuvi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e au dimanche soir. Favorite \u00e0 1,30, La Rochelle doit gagner de neuf points pour payer son handicap : je prends Bayonne +8,5 \u00e0 1,90, mise minimale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":16421,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic La Rochelle \u2013 Bayonne, 9e journ\u00e9e de Top 14 en doublon : La Rochelle favorite \u00e0 1,30. 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