{"id":16795,"date":"2026-11-04T18:38:26","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T17:38:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/shelton-rinderknech-a-131-le-favori-ne-laisse-rien-a-prendre\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T20:03:47","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T19:03:47","slug":"shelton-rinderknech-pronostic-2026-11-05","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/shelton-rinderknech-pronostic-2026-11-05\/","title":{"rendered":"Shelton &#8211; Rinderknech : \u00e0 1,30, le favori ne laisse rien \u00e0 prendre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Il a fallu une heure et six minutes \u00e0 Arthur Rinderknech, mercredi apr\u00e8s-midi \u00e0 Nanterre, pour \u00e9carter Mattia Bellucci <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/rinderknech-never-faces-a-break-point-as-he-sweeps-past-bellucci-to-be-the-first-in-the-round-of-16-in-paris-865529.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sans conc\u00e9der la moindre balle de break<\/a> : 88 % de premi\u00e8res balles, six aces. La r\u00e9compense tombe au tour suivant : Ben Shelton, num\u00e9ro 4 mondial, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/the-french-crowd-has-some-of-the-best-energy-in-tennis-shelton-beats-norrie-in-paris-865419.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 Cameron Norrie en une heure douze mardi<\/a>. Huiti\u00e8mes de finale du Masters de Paris, jeudi, sur le court couvert de la Plenitude Arena.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;enjeu n&#8217;est pas le m\u00eame des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s du filet. Shelton joue lib\u00e9r\u00e9 : qualifi\u00e9 pour les Finales ATP de Turin, quatre titres cette saison, exempt\u00e9 du premier tour, il n&#8217;a disput\u00e9 qu&#8217;un match en six jours. Il venait pourtant de saluer \u00ab l&#8217;une des meilleures \u00e9nergies du tennis \u00bb chez le public fran\u00e7ais ; jeudi, ce public sera dans l&#8217;autre camp. Rinderknech, lui, \u00e9gale d\u00e9j\u00e0 sa meilleure performance parisienne, un huiti\u00e8me en 2024, et vise son premier quart de Masters 1000 de la saison.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux services au-dessus de 79 %, un seul duel, sur gazon<\/h2>\n<p>Sur leurs dix derni\u00e8res sorties, Shelton a gagn\u00e9 80,3 % de ses jeux de service, Rinderknech 79,8 %. Sur dur couvert, la premi\u00e8re balle commande, et les deux en ont beaucoup : le gaucher am\u00e9ricain ouvre le court c\u00f4t\u00e9 revers, le Fran\u00e7ais ne laisse presque rien derri\u00e8re sa premi\u00e8re, dans une salle que Rinderknech jugeait \u00ab raisonnablement rapide \u00bb pour un indoor. Leurs trajectoires ne se sont crois\u00e9es qu&#8217;une fois, au Queen&#8217;s en 2025, sur gazon : 7-6(5) 7-6(4) pour Rinderknech, deux manches finies au tie-break. La FFT le notait avant ce tournoi : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fft.fr\/actualites\/rolex-paris-masters-halys-rinderknech-fils-humbert-van-assche\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab une autre surface et un autre Ben Shelton, qui n&#8217;\u00e9tait pas encore un finaliste en Grand Chelem \u00bb<\/a>. Un duel sur gazon ne vaut pas d\u00e9cision sur dur couvert, pas quand l&#8217;un des deux a disput\u00e9 une finale de l&#8217;US Open depuis.<\/p>\n<h2>Un mois d&#8217;arr\u00eat, trois matchs en quatre jours<\/h2>\n<p>La vraie inconnue est physique. D\u00e9but octobre, \u00e0 P\u00e9kin, une s\u00e9rieuse d\u00e9chirure musculaire, contract\u00e9e d\u00e8s son premier match de double, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisactu.net\/news-atp-blessure-rinderknech-j-espere-vous-retrouver-au-rolex-paris-masters-127423.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">lui a co\u00fbt\u00e9 la tourn\u00e9e asiatique<\/a> : P\u00e9kin, Shanghai, et les 650 points de sa finale de Shanghai 2025 envol\u00e9s. Il est sorti du top 50, 68e au classement du 2 novembre. Depuis lundi, il a jou\u00e9 le double avec Bonzi, puis deux simples en deux jours, et un deuxi\u00e8me tour de double peut encore s&#8217;ajouter jeudi : l&#8217;ordre du jeu n&#8217;est pas encore publi\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Le service n&#8217;a rien perdu ; la facture arrive sur les appuis. Un tie-break long, un \u00e9change qui encha\u00eene les changements de direction, et la semaine commence \u00e0 peser. Si les points restent courts, Rinderknech tient deux heures ; si chaque manche passe par un tie-break disput\u00e9, la fra\u00eecheur de Shelton fera la diff\u00e9rence dans les jeux de retour.<\/p>\n<h2>La forme des deux hommes depuis fin octobre<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Joueur<\/th>\n<th>Tournoi<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>03\/11<\/td>\n<td>Ben Shelton<\/td>\n<td>Paris<\/td>\n<td>C. Norrie<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>29\/10<\/td>\n<td>Ben Shelton<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e2le<\/td>\n<td>J. Kym<\/td>\n<td>3-6 7-6 6-7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/10<\/td>\n<td>Ben Shelton<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e2le<\/td>\n<td>A. Kovacevic<\/td>\n<td>6-7 7-6 7-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/11<\/td>\n<td>Arthur Rinderknech<\/td>\n<td>Paris<\/td>\n<td>M. Bellucci<\/td>\n<td>6-4 6-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>03\/11<\/td>\n<td>Arthur Rinderknech<\/td>\n<td>Paris<\/td>\n<td>F. Cerundolo<\/td>\n<td>3-6 7-6(2) 2-0 ab.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/10<\/td>\n<td>Arthur Rinderknech<\/td>\n<td>B\u00e2le<\/td>\n<td>J. Kym<\/td>\n<td>6-7 4-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,30, le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9pondu<\/h2>\n<p>Ce mercredi soir, Shelton s&#8217;affiche \u00e0 1,30 chez Betway, Rinderknech \u00e0 3,75 chez Bet365, et la cote de l&#8217;Am\u00e9ricain a gliss\u00e9 depuis l&#8217;ouverture (1,31). \u00c0 1,30, le march\u00e9 donne environ trois victoires sur quatre \u00e0 l&#8217;Am\u00e9ricain. Le total de jeux est cot\u00e9 \u00e0 23, autour de 1,85 des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s : des manches serr\u00e9es en perspective.<\/p>\n<h2>Sans \u00e9cart net, pas de pari<\/h2>\n<p>Ma lecture rejoint la cote, presque au chiffre pr\u00e8s. Pour prendre Rinderknech \u00e0 3,75, il me faudrait savoir que le service de mercredi tiendra deux heures contre un joueur plus frais ; c&#8217;est un espoir, pas une probabilit\u00e9 que je peux placer au-dessus de celle du march\u00e9. Pour prendre Shelton \u00e0 1,30, il faudrait lui donner mieux que trois chances sur quatre, et je n&#8217;y arrive pas quand je repense aux deux tie-breaks du Queen&#8217;s. Les autres lignes, handicap de jeux ou total, demandent de mesurer la r\u00e9ponse d&#8217;un corps sorti d&#8217;une d\u00e9chirure un mois plus t\u00f4t \u00e0 un troisi\u00e8me match en quatre jours : je ne sais pas faire.<\/p>\n<p>Sans \u00e9cart avec le march\u00e9, <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">la mise que donne notre m\u00e9thode tombe \u00e0 z\u00e9ro<\/a> : pas de pari. Ce huiti\u00e8me n&#8217;aura pas sa ligne dans le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> ; je le regarderai comme un match de tennis, ce qui est d\u00e9j\u00e0 une belle fa\u00e7on de passer une soir\u00e9e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Rinderknech n&#8217;a pas conc\u00e9d\u00e9 la moindre balle de break face \u00e0 Bellucci ; Ben Shelton, frais et d\u00e9j\u00e0 qualifi\u00e9 pour Turin, attend en huiti\u00e8mes du Masters de Paris. \u00c0 1,30, le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match : je le regarde sans parier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16943,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Huiti\u00e8mes du Masters de Paris : Ben Shelton \u00e0 1,30 face \u00e0 Arthur Rinderknech et son service retrouv\u00e9. Ma lecture du match, et pourquoi je ne parie pas.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Ben Shelton","ba_away_name":"Arthur Rinderknech","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-05 09:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12177392","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-16795","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Shelton &#8211; Rinderknech : \u00e0 1,30, le favori ne laisse rien \u00e0 prendre &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Huiti\u00e8mes du Masters de Paris : Ben Shelton \u00e0 1,30 face \u00e0 Arthur Rinderknech et son service retrouv\u00e9. 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