{"id":16815,"date":"2026-11-04T18:41:27","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T17:41:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/paul-halys-quatre-balles-de-match-sauvees-un-quart-de-masters-1000-en-jeu\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T20:05:30","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T19:05:30","slug":"paul-halys-pronostic-2026-11-05","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/paul-halys-pronostic-2026-11-05\/","title":{"rendered":"Paul &#8211; Halys : quatre balles de match sauv\u00e9es, un quart de Masters 1000 en jeu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mercredi soir, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/defiant-halys-saves-four-match-points-to-topple-tiafoe-in-paris-865540.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Quentin Halys a sauv\u00e9 quatre balles de match<\/a> avant de renverser Frances Tiafoe dans un tie-break d\u00e9cisif gagn\u00e9 11-9. Et ce commentaire, juste apr\u00e8s la balle de match : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennisactu.net\/news-rolex-paris-masters-quentin-halys-je-ne-pensais-pas-que-tiafoe-etait-top-10-128067.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab Je ne pensais pas que Tiafoe \u00e9tait Top 10. \u00bb<\/a> Quelques heures plus t\u00f4t, Tommy Paul <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/ruthless-paul-routs-merida-to-reach-the-paris-round-of-16-865548.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">avait exp\u00e9di\u00e9 D. M\u00e9rida en quarante-huit minutes<\/a>. Jeudi, les deux hommes se croisent en huiti\u00e8mes du Masters de Paris, sur le court couvert de la Plenitude Arena.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;enjeu n&#8217;est pas sym\u00e9trique. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/paul-beats-2022-champion-rune-to-keep-his-turin-hopes-alive-in-paris-865340.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul doit au moins atteindre la finale \u00e0 Paris pour rester vivant dans la course aux Finales de Turin<\/a> ; Halys, lui, joue son premier quart de Masters 1000. L&#8217;\u00e9limination de Tiafoe a d\u00e9j\u00e0 valid\u00e9 le billet turinois d&#8217;Arthur Fils : ce huiti\u00e8me d\u00e9cide encore beaucoup de la fin de saison.<\/p>\n<h2>La premi\u00e8re balle de Halys, le retour de Paul<\/h2>\n<p>Sur leurs dix derniers matchs, Halys gagne 84,6 % de ses jeux de service, Paul 83,5 %. Le Fran\u00e7ais vit dans les tie-breaks : 0,37 par set, contre 0,13 \u00e0 Paul, qui traverse les manches sans d\u00e9tour. Mardi contre A. Fery, 17 aces et 87 % de points gagn\u00e9s derri\u00e8re la premi\u00e8re balle. Le contraste se joue au retour : Paul gagne un jeu de service adverse sur quatre, Halys moins d&#8217;un sur cinq. Quand la premi\u00e8re balle de Halys passe, l&#8217;\u00e9change meurt ; quand elle baisse, le retour de Paul prend le dessus. Leurs seuls duels datent des Challenger, un partout, le dernier gagn\u00e9 par Halys \u00e0 Bordeaux en 2017, sur terre : neuf ans plus tard, \u00e7a ne d\u00e9cide rien.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux semaines diff\u00e9rentes dans les jambes<\/h2>\n<p>Paul n&#8217;a pass\u00e9 qu&#8217;une heure vingt et une sur le court mardi contre H. Rune, puis quarante-huit minutes mercredi ; la semaine pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente, il s&#8217;\u00e9tait inclin\u00e9 en quart \u00e0 Vienne contre C. Alcaraz, deux manches serr\u00e9es. Halys a jou\u00e9 une heure cinquante-sept mercredi, plus le double avec P.-H. Herbert : victoire lundi, un deuxi\u00e8me tour encore possible jeudi, l&#8217;ordre du jeu n&#8217;\u00e9tant pas publi\u00e9. Lui-m\u00eame se disait \u00ab miracul\u00e9 \u00bb et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rolexparimasters.com\/en\/news\/article\/second-round-halys-rinderknech-paul-success\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">admettait avoir \u00ab compl\u00e8tement disparu, mentalement, physiquement et tennistiquement, pendant environ un set et demi \u00bb<\/a>. Un simple et peut-\u00eatre un double le m\u00eame jour, apr\u00e8s l&#8217;effort de la veille : ce genre de semaine se paie en fin de troisi\u00e8me manche, quand les appuis tra\u00eenent.<\/p>\n<h2>La quinzaine des deux hommes<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Joueur<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/11<\/td>\n<td>Tommy Paul<\/td>\n<td>D. M\u00e9rida<\/td>\n<td>6-1 6-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>03\/11<\/td>\n<td>Tommy Paul<\/td>\n<td>H. Rune<\/td>\n<td>7-5 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/11<\/td>\n<td>Quentin Halys<\/td>\n<td>F. Tiafoe<\/td>\n<td>6-3 1-6 7-6(9)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>03\/11<\/td>\n<td>Quentin Halys<\/td>\n<td>A. Fery<\/td>\n<td>7-6(6) 7-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,31, le prix a d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9 la fatigue<\/h2>\n<p>Ce mercredi soir, Paul s&#8217;affiche \u00e0 1,31 chez Betano, Halys \u00e0 3,60 chez Unibet : le prix de l&#8217;Am\u00e9ricain a durci depuis l&#8217;ouverture (1,35), celui du Fran\u00e7ais a recul\u00e9 (3,50). \u00c0 1,31, le march\u00e9 donne environ trois victoires sur quatre \u00e0 l&#8217;Am\u00e9ricain. Le total de jeux, \u00e0 22,5, s&#8217;affiche autour de 1,90 des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s ; le handicap de jeux, moins 3,5 pour Paul, \u00e0 1,90. Chaque ligne que je regarde para\u00eet juste.<\/p>\n<h2>Pourquoi ce match ne se parie pas<\/h2>\n<p>Ma lecture penche pour Paul, comme la cote : plus frais, meilleur retourneur, un plan simple contre un serveur. Je lui donne environ trois victoires sur quatre, le prix en promet autant : rien \u00e0 prendre c\u00f4t\u00e9 favori. Prendre Halys \u00e0 3,60, c&#8217;est croire que le thriller de mercredi et un \u00e9ventuel double de jeudi ne co\u00fbteront rien \u00e0 sa premi\u00e8re balle ; c&#8217;est possible, et c&#8217;est exactement ce que je ne sais pas chiffrer. Les lignes de jeux m&#8217;ont tent\u00e9e une seconde : 22,5 jeux au total, face \u00e0 un joueur qui en joue 29,5 par match en moyenne. Puis la fatigue d&#8217;un c\u00f4t\u00e9, la fra\u00eecheur de l&#8217;autre : le march\u00e9 les a d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans ses prix.<\/p>\n<p>Sans \u00e9cart net, <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">la mise de notre m\u00e9thode tombe \u00e0 z\u00e9ro<\/a> : je ne parie pas. Ce huiti\u00e8me n&#8217;ira pas au <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> ; je le regarde pour le tennis, pour voir si la premi\u00e8re balle de Halys tient deux heures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quentin Halys a sauv\u00e9 quatre balles de match contre Tiafoe pendant que Tommy Paul exp\u00e9diait M\u00e9rida en quarante-huit minutes. \u00c0 1,31 contre 3,60, je ne trouve pas de ligne \u00e0 prendre : pas de pari.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16948,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Huiti\u00e8mes du Masters de Paris : Tommy Paul (1,31) face \u00e0 Quentin Halys, sorti d&#8217;un thriller contre Tiafoe. 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