{"id":17025,"date":"2026-11-05T08:37:26","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T07:37:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/struff-ruud-le-marathonien-de-36-ans-face-a-la-fraicheur-norvegienne\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T08:37:40","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T07:37:40","slug":"struff-ruud-pronostic-2026-11-05","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/struff-ruud-pronostic-2026-11-05\/","title":{"rendered":"Struff \u2013 Ruud : le marathonien de 36 ans face \u00e0 la fra\u00eecheur norv\u00e9gienne"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Jan-Lennard Struff a quitt\u00e9 le court 1 mercredi soir au bout de 2 h 23 face \u00e0 Tirante, 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(3), sa deuxi\u00e8me balle de match transform\u00e9e. \u00ab C&#8217;\u00e9tait un combat brutal \u00bb, a r\u00e9sum\u00e9 l&#8217;Allemand de 36 ans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sport1.de\/news\/tennis\/atp\/2026\/11\/wieder-ein-marathon-struff-in-paris-weiter-dabei\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00e0 sa sortie du court<\/a>. Jeudi, en huiti\u00e8me de finale, il retrouve Casper Ruud, qui n&#8217;a disput\u00e9 que quatre sets en deux matchs cette semaine et n&#8217;en a pas perdu un seul.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux matchs en deux jours pour Struff, une semaine douce pour Ruud<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;automne de Struff est sa meilleure fin de saison depuis des ann\u00e9es : une finale \u00e0 Bruxelles perdue contre Griekspoor, une demi-finale \u00e0 B\u00e2le o\u00f9 il \u00e9limine Djokovic avant de c\u00e9der \u00e0 Lehecka. Puis deux tours pris en deux jours \u00e0 Paris, 7-6(3) 6-3 contre Gea mardi, le marathon de mercredi. \u00c0 36 ans, ce calendrier laisse des traces, et les traces se voient d&#8217;abord au service, en fin de troisi\u00e8me manche.<\/p>\n<p>Ruud a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 Jodar, neuvi\u00e8me t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie, mardi en 1 h 18, 6-3 6-4, le match conclu sur un ace. L&#8217;ancien num\u00e9ro deux mondial n&#8217;a pas conc\u00e9d\u00e9 un set de la semaine. Sur leurs dix derniers matchs, leurs chiffres de service racontent deux fa\u00e7ons de gagner :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Statistique sur dix matchs<\/th>\n<th>Struff<\/th>\n<th>Ruud<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de service gagn\u00e9s<\/td>\n<td>88,9 %<\/td>\n<td>84,3 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de retour gagn\u00e9s<\/td>\n<td>19,5 %<\/td>\n<td>27,3 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux moyens par match<\/td>\n<td>26,7<\/td>\n<td>24,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Le face-\u00e0-face dit Struff, la surface sert son service<\/h2>\n<p>Struff m\u00e8ne les confrontations directes 3-1, mais la plus r\u00e9cente est pour Ruud, 7-6(5) 6-3 \u00e0 P\u00e9kin en 2023 <a href=\"https:\/\/tennis-db.com\/rivalries\/casper-ruud-vs-jan-lennard-struff\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(comptes d\u00e9taill\u00e9s)<\/a>. P\u00e9kin se jouait en ext\u00e9rieur ; Paris joue en salle, sur un court que les joueurs jugent rapide.<\/p>\n<p>Struff tient 88,9 % de ses jeux de service sur ses dix derniers matchs et a d\u00e9j\u00e0 disput\u00e9 trois tie-breaks en deux rencontres ici. Sur un court rapide sous toit, son plan de match tient en une ligne : servir, tenir, pousser vers le tie-break. Il l&#8217;a dit, ces conditions rapides lui conviennent. Le mod\u00e8le du site, qui ne voit pas la fatigue, attend 25,6 jeux : des manches disput\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,53, la fra\u00eecheur est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans la cote<\/h2>\n<p>La cote de Ruud est tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 1,53 chez BetMGM jeudi matin, un peu moins de deux chances sur trois pour le Norv\u00e9gien. Celle de Struff a \u00e9t\u00e9 raccourcie de 2,75 \u00e0 2,62 chez Betano depuis le d\u00e9but de semaine. La ligne des jeux vit \u00e0 23,5, chaque camp autour de 2,00, avec 8 % de marge : mon sc\u00e9nario n&#8217;y laisse pas d&#8217;avantage net.<\/p>\n<h2>Pourquoi ce huiti\u00e8me se regarde sans pari<\/h2>\n<p>Je vois Ruud gagner ce match. Je ne le vois pas gagner assez souvent pour payer 1,53 : le service de Struff sur un court rapide fabrique des tie-breaks, et un tie-break se joue presque \u00e0 pile ou face. Sans avantage net, pas de pari : ce match ne rejoindra pas mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, je le regarde, je ne le joue pas.<\/p>\n<p>Troisi\u00e8me match sur le court 1 : l&#8217;horaire affich\u00e9 est un plancher, pas une promesse <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rolexparismasters.com\/en\/news\/article\/round-of-16-schedule-singles-doubles-france-usa-shelton-alcaraz-fils\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(programme du jour)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deux heures vingt-trois sur le court pour Struff mercredi, quatre sets en une semaine pour Ruud : \u00e0 36 ans, la r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration d\u00e9cide de ce huiti\u00e8me.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":17028,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Struff \u2013 Ruud, huiti\u00e8me du Masters de Paris : mon pronostic. La fra\u00eecheur du Norv\u00e9gien est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans la cote \u00e0 1,53, pas de valeur, pas de pari.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Jan-Lennard Struff","ba_away_name":"Casper Ruud","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-05 16:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12177621","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-17025","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Struff \u2013 Ruud : le marathonien de 36 ans face \u00e0 la fra\u00eecheur norv\u00e9gienne &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Struff \u2013 Ruud, huiti\u00e8me du Masters de Paris : mon pronostic. 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