{"id":17044,"date":"2026-11-05T08:40:19","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T07:40:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/berrettini-alcaraz-vienne-dans-les-jambes-et-un-tableau-degage\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T08:43:21","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T07:43:21","slug":"berrettini-alcaraz-pronostic-2026-11-05","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/berrettini-alcaraz-pronostic-2026-11-05\/","title":{"rendered":"Berrettini \u2013 Alcaraz : Vienne dans les jambes et un tableau d\u00e9gag\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"

Carlos Alcaraz n’a plus grand-chose \u00e0 prouver en salle. Champion \u00e0 Vienne dimanche sans perdre un set de la semaine, il a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 Michelsen mercredi apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 men\u00e9 1-4 dans le jeu d\u00e9cisif du premier set : six points de suite, 26 coups gagnants contre 12, le match pli\u00e9 7-6(4) 6-3 en 1 h 41 (compte rendu)<\/a>. Jeudi, en session de nuit sur le central, il retrouve Matteo Berrettini en huiti\u00e8me de finale, pour leur premi\u00e8re confrontation depuis Wimbledon 2023.<\/p>\n

Un tableau d\u00e9gag\u00e9 pour un joueur qui n’a jamais d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les quarts ici<\/h2>\n

Mercredi a fait le m\u00e9nage : Zverev, Djokovic, Medvedev, De Minaur et Tiafoe sont sortis le m\u00eame soir (la soir\u00e9e de mercredi)<\/a>. Alcaraz dispute son quatri\u00e8me huiti\u00e8me \u00e0 Paris sans y avoir jamais d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les quarts, et il n’a jamais vu le tableau aussi ouvert. Revenu en ao\u00fbt apr\u00e8s plus de quatre mois d’arr\u00eat (poignet), il encha\u00eene six victoires en salle, affiche 38 victoires pour 5 d\u00e9faites cette saison, 33-4 sur dur, et jouera les Masters de Turin dans dix jours.<\/p>\n

Berrettini vit sur son service, et le court l’aide<\/h2>\n

Berrettini a sign\u00e9 \u00e0 Paris la premi\u00e8re victoire de sa carri\u00e8re dans le tournoi : deux balles de match sauv\u00e9es contre Nakashima, 6-4 3-6 7-6(8) mardi (le match)<\/a>, puis Humbert exp\u00e9di\u00e9 7-6(3) 7-5 en 1 h 13 mercredi. Sur ses dix derniers matchs, il tient 81,2 % de ses jeux de service et joue un tie-break toutes les trois manches environ.<\/p>\n

La surface fait le reste : resurfac\u00e9s pour 2026, les courts affichaient lundi un indice de vitesse de 47,9 sur le central, contre 43,3 \u00e0 Shanghai, et selon le directeur du tournoi l’une des surfaces les plus rapides depuis pr\u00e8s de vingt ans (les mesures)<\/a>. Le service de Berrettini adore \u00e7a.<\/p>\n

Reste le corps. Berrettini a abandonn\u00e9 son quart de finale \u00e0 Roland-Garros (haut de la cuisse), et il le dit lui-m\u00eame : \u00ab quand on a mal, l’esprit s’emballe \u00bb (ses mots de mercredi)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u00c0 1,15, le march\u00e9 a tout mis dans la main d’Alcaraz<\/h2>\n

Alcaraz se paie 1,154 chez Betway jeudi matin, un peu plus de quatre chances sur cinq. Berrettini a \u00e9t\u00e9 raccourci de 6,50 \u00e0 5,75 depuis l’ouverture chez Unibet : des mises continuent d’arriver sur l’Italien. Le mod\u00e8le du site donne l’Espagnol \u00e0 85 %, le march\u00e9 juste \u00e0 82 % : la m\u00eame lecture des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Les march\u00e9s secondaires ne donnent rien de mieux : la ligne des jeux vit \u00e0 21,5 chez un seul op\u00e9rateur, avec 10 % de marge. Sur le handicap en jeux, ligne \u00e0 4,5, le service de Berrettini me fait reculer : un seul set accroch\u00e9 en tie-break et la ligne saute.<\/p>\n

Pourquoi je regarde ce match sans pari<\/h2>\n

Je vois Alcaraz l’emporter, comme le march\u00e9, comme le mod\u00e8le : \u00e0 ce prix, il n’y a rien \u00e0 prendre. Sans avantage net sur le vainqueur, les jeux ou les handicaps, pas de pari : ce huiti\u00e8me ne rejoindra pas mon bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n

18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Champion \u00e0 Vienne dimanche, Alcaraz profite mercredi d’un tableau d\u00e9cim\u00e9 : \u00e0 1,15 face au service de Berrettini, le prix a tout dit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":17047,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Berrettini \u2013 Alcaraz, huiti\u00e8me du Masters de Paris : mon pronostic. \u00c0 1,15, la cote d’Alcaraz a tout int\u00e9gr\u00e9 : pas de pari sur ce match.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Matteo Berrettini","ba_away_name":"Carlos Alcaraz","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-05 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