{"id":17064,"date":"2026-11-05T08:42:41","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T07:42:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/fils-fritz-six-jours-apres-labandon-de-bale-la-revanche-a-la-maison\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T08:43:20","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T07:43:20","slug":"fils-fritz-pronostic-2026-11-05","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/fils-fritz-pronostic-2026-11-05\/","title":{"rendered":"Fils \u2013 Fritz : six jours apr\u00e8s l&#8217;abandon de B\u00e2le, la revanche \u00e0 la maison"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Il y a six jours, \u00e0 B\u00e2le, Arthur Fils s&#8217;est arr\u00eat\u00e9 contre Taylor Fritz sur un score de 6-2 2-0 : une g\u00eane au bas du dos, puis une douleur \u00e0 la jambe gauche, et l&#8217;abandon par pr\u00e9caution <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/news\/fils-fritz-basel-2026-friday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(le compte rendu)<\/a>. Jeudi soir, derni\u00e8re rotation du court central, il retrouve le m\u00eame adversaire. \u00ab Je suis \u00e0 la maison, c&#8217;est l&#8217;avantage \u00bb, a r\u00e9sum\u00e9 Fils <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/ici-cest-paris-fils-beats-machac-in-paris-on-the-day-he-qualifies-for-turin-sets-up-fritz-rematch-865703.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(ses mots de mercredi)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Six jours apr\u00e8s B\u00e2le, le corps de Fils a r\u00e9pondu<\/h2>\n<p>Les examens du samedi avaient rassur\u00e9 ; dimanche, en conf\u00e9rence de presse, il se disait \u00ab \u00e0 100 %, tout va bien, mon corps va bien \u00bb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/fils-will-play-the-rolex-paris-masters-everything-is-fine-i-feel-good-864825.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(la d\u00e9claration)<\/a>. Mercredi, contre Machac, la preuve par le terrain : 6-3 7-6(4) en 1 h 29, aucune balle de break conc\u00e9d\u00e9e, onze jeux de service tenus, 92 % de points gagn\u00e9s derri\u00e8re la premi\u00e8re balle <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/unbroken-fils-beats-machac-to-set-up-fritz-rematch-in-paris-865718.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(le match)<\/a>. Trois balles de set sauv\u00e9es par le Tch\u00e8que \u00e0 2-5, et la manche r\u00e9gl\u00e9e au tie-break sans le moindre break.<\/p>\n<h2>Fritz joue son troisi\u00e8me match en trois jours, et le service tient toujours<\/h2>\n<p>Mercredi, Taylor Fritz a sorti Molcan au bout de 2 h 31, 6-7(6) 7-5 7-6(5), avec 37 aces et un seul break conc\u00e9d\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sports.fr\/tennis\/paris-masters-fils-la-journee-parfaite-1060172.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(la journ\u00e9e de mercredi)<\/a> : 38 jeux au total. Son coude droit l&#8217;avait fait souffrir apr\u00e8s Bonzi mardi ; 37 aces le lendemain, voil\u00e0 la r\u00e9ponse du corps. Sur leurs dix derniers matchs, les chiffres des deux hommes se ressemblent plus qu&#8217;ils ne s&#8217;opposent :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Statistique sur dix matchs<\/th>\n<th>Fils<\/th>\n<th>Fritz<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de service gagn\u00e9s<\/td>\n<td>85,1 %<\/td>\n<td>91,2 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux de retour gagn\u00e9s<\/td>\n<td>22,1 %<\/td>\n<td>16,2 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jeux moyens par match<\/td>\n<td>24,9<\/td>\n<td>24,1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Le vainqueur est ind\u00e9cis, le nombre de jeux l&#8217;est moins<\/h2>\n<p>Le face-\u00e0-face tient la revanche : une victoire chacun, Tokyo 2024 pour Fils 6-4 3-6 6-3, B\u00e2le la semaine derni\u00e8re pour Fritz. Le march\u00e9 voit les deux joueurs \u00e0 peine s\u00e9par\u00e9s, Fils \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365, Fritz \u00e0 2,10 chez Betano. Les enjeux, eux, ne s&#8217;\u00e9quilibrent pas : Fils est d\u00e9j\u00e0 qualifi\u00e9 pour le Masters de Turin, premi\u00e8re qualification fran\u00e7aise depuis Monfils en 2016, et vise la sixi\u00e8me place mondiale ; Fritz doit atteindre au minimum les demi-finales pour rester dans la course <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/fritz-recovers-from-a-set-down-against-bonzi-to-stay-in-the-race-for-turin-865390.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">(le point Turin)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Sur cette surface rapide favorable aux services, deux jeux de service qui tiennent \u00e0 ce point font des manches longues : le mod\u00e8le attend 26,4 jeux, et le match de Fritz en a d\u00e9j\u00e0 produit 38 mercredi.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : plus de 24,5 jeux \u00e0 1,90<\/h2>\n<p>La ligne qui m&#8217;int\u00e9resse vit sur le total de jeux du match : plus de 24,5, \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet jeudi matin. Je donne 57 % de chances \u00e0 un match d&#8217;au moins 25 jeux, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la cote juste en promet 50 : un avantage r\u00e9el, mais modeste, et je ne le fais pas passer pour plus qu&#8217;il n&#8217;est. La mise suit : une demi-unit\u00e9, 50 $ ; avec un avantage de cet ordre, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> ne recommande pas davantage.<\/p>\n<p>Les issues exactes : 25 jeux ou plus, le pari gagne et rapporte 45 $ nets ; 24 jeux ou moins, il perd, 50 $. Abandon ou forfait, quel que soit le c\u00f4t\u00e9 : pari rembours\u00e9. Ce pronostic suivra son chemin dans mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, quel qu&#8217;il arrive.<\/p>\n<p>Derni\u00e8re rotation du central, apr\u00e8s Berrettini &#8211; Alcaraz : l&#8217;horaire affich\u00e9 est un plancher. 18+ : ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fils avait abandonn\u00e9 contre Fritz \u00e0 B\u00e2le la semaine derni\u00e8re. Jeudi soir, \u00e0 Paris, je prends la revanche par les jeux : plus de 24,5 \u00e0 1,90.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":17067,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Fils \u2013 Fritz, huiti\u00e8me du Masters de Paris : mon pronostic est plus de 24,5 jeux \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, une demi-unit\u00e9 sur deux gros services.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Arthur Fils","ba_away_name":"Taylor Fritz","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-05 19:30:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12177663","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pfjrgo0flii","author_id":6,"market":"Total de jeux","selection":"Plus de 24,5 jeux","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"games_totals","selection_key":"over","line":24.5,"odds":1.9,"stake_units":0.5,"stake_amount":50,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":45,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-05 07:43:00","settled_at":"","probability":0.57,"p_market":0.5,"p_used":0.535,"edge":0.0165,"market_margin":0.0827,"market_books":4,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-17064","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fils \u2013 Fritz : six jours apr\u00e8s l&#8217;abandon de B\u00e2le, la revanche \u00e0 la maison &#183; 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