{"id":17459,"date":"2026-11-05T22:37:24","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T21:37:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/shelton-paul-vingt-huit-minutes-decart-dans-les-jambes-un-billet-de-turin-en-jeu\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T23:12:31","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T22:12:31","slug":"shelton-paul-pronostic-2026-11-06","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/shelton-paul-pronostic-2026-11-06\/","title":{"rendered":"Shelton &#8211; Paul : vingt-huit minutes d&#8217;\u00e9cart dans les jambes, un billet de Turin en jeu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Jeudi soir, Tommy Paul a quitt\u00e9 le court Central au bout d&#8217;une heure trente-cinq, son quart en poche. Ben Shelton y est rest\u00e9 vingt-huit minutes de plus et a eu besoin d&#8217;un tie-break au troisi\u00e8me set pour sortir Arthur Rinderknech. Vendredi, les deux Am\u00e9ricains se retrouvent en quart de finale du Masters de Paris, pour ce qui serait la premi\u00e8re demi-finale parisienne de chacun. Vingt-huit minutes d&#8217;\u00e9cart dans les jambes p\u00e8sent plus, ce vendredi-l\u00e0, que dix places de classement.<\/p>\n<h2>Un Central plus rapide que Shanghai<\/h2>\n<p>Le court a \u00e9t\u00e9 refait plus rapide cet automne : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.puntodebreak.com\/en\/2026\/11\/03\/the-m1000-of-paris-sets-the-fastest-tracks-in-nearly-20-years\">un indice de vitesse de 47,9<\/a> relev\u00e9 lundi, le plus rapide des Masters 1000 de la saison, devant les 43,3 de Shanghai. C\u00e9dric Pioline le juge \u00ab nettement plus rapide que l&#8217;an dernier \u00bb. Ben Shelton, lui, n&#8217;est pas de cet avis : B\u00e2le, la semaine derni\u00e8re, allait plus vite selon lui, Cincinnati aussi, et il pr\u00e9f\u00e8re de toute fa\u00e7on \u00ab un court dur plus lent, qui rebondit haut \u00bb. L&#8217;indice mesure la vitesse, pas le rebond. Sur une pareille surface, les jeux de service tiennent longtemps et les tie-breaks d\u00e9cident. Sur leurs dix derniers matchs, Paul tient son service \u00e0 84,9 % et prend celui d&#8217;en face dans 25,2 % de ses jeux de retour ; Shelton tient \u00e0 82,2 % et casse \u00e0 15,8 %. L&#8217;\u00e9cart au retour est l&#8217;\u00e9cart du match.<\/p>\n<h2>Trois matchs, six sets, aucun l\u00e2ch\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>La semaine de Paul se r\u00e9sume vite : Holger Rune 7-5 6-4, Merida Aguilar 6-1 6-1 en 48 minutes, puis <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/paul-ends-halys-run-in-paris-to-keep-his-turin-hopes-alive-865766.html\">Quentin Halys battu<\/a> 7-6 6-4 jeudi. Contre Halys, il a gagn\u00e9 43 de ses 45 points derri\u00e8re sa premi\u00e8re balle et ne s&#8217;est vu opposer qu&#8217;une balle de break, sauv\u00e9e. C&#8217;est d\u00e9j\u00e0 son dixi\u00e8me quart de Masters 1000, le quatri\u00e8me de la saison. Shelton, t\u00eate de s\u00e9rie num\u00e9ro 3, a b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 d&#8217;un tour d&#8217;exemption : deux matchs, deux victoires, Cameron Norrie puis Rinderknech.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Joueur<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Tour<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Paul<\/td>\n<td>H. Rune<\/td>\n<td>1er tour<\/td>\n<td>7-5 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Paul<\/td>\n<td>D. Merida Aguilar<\/td>\n<td>2e tour<\/td>\n<td>6-1 6-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Paul<\/td>\n<td>Q. Halys<\/td>\n<td>8es de finale<\/td>\n<td>7-6 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Shelton<\/td>\n<td>C. Norrie<\/td>\n<td>2e tour<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Shelton<\/td>\n<td>A. Rinderknech<\/td>\n<td>8es de finale<\/td>\n<td>3-6 6-4 7-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Paul joue en plus sa saison : 13e de la Race, il lui faut la finale dimanche pour passer devant Jodar et prendre le dernier billet des Masters de Turin, vacant depuis le forfait de Sinner. Jeudi encore, interrog\u00e9 sur Turin, il r\u00e9pond \u00ab pas grand-chose \u00bb : il ne savait m\u00eame pas qui il jouerait ensuite, et prend \u00ab un jour \u00e0 la fois \u00bb.<\/p>\n<h2>Shelton, la forme pour Turin, les jambes de jeudi<\/h2>\n<p>D\u00e9j\u00e0 qualifi\u00e9 pour le Masters, Shelton est venu \u00e0 Paris chercher du rythme, sur un court dont les conditions se rapprochent de celles de Turin. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/atp\/rolex-paris-masters-1000-atp\/everyone-is-probably-cooked-shelton-feels-100-per-cent-for-the-first-time-since-the-us-open-865813.html\">Il se dit \u00e0 100 %<\/a> pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis l&#8217;US Open, o\u00f9 il a disput\u00e9 la finale. Jeudi lui a laiss\u00e9 des traces : 2 h 03 de jeu, un set de retard renvers\u00e9 contre Rinderknech, et sa propre lucidit\u00e9 sur la fin de saison, \u00ab je pense que tout le monde est probablement cuit \u00bb. Son service de gaucher reste l&#8217;arme la plus lourde du tournoi, et ses quatre duels avec Paul, tous sur dur, sont partag\u00e9s : le dernier, \u00e0 Dallas en f\u00e9vrier 2024, est pour Paul. Il parle de Paul comme d&#8217;\u00ab un grand joueur, un grand ami \u00bb, qu&#8217;il dit avoir soutenu toute l&#8217;ann\u00e9e dans sa course \u00e0 Turin, et promet \u00ab un feu d&#8217;artifice \u00bb vendredi.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Paul vainqueur, 0,75 unit\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 1,78 chez Betano, le march\u00e9 donne Paul gagnant un peu plus d&#8217;une fois sur deux ; je le vois \u00e0 60 %. Plus frais, meilleur retourneur, une finale \u00e0 aller chercher : tout pointe du m\u00eame c\u00f4t\u00e9 ; la fra\u00eecheur reste l&#8217;argument le plus fragile des trois, aucun compte rendu de jeudi ne montre Shelton touch\u00e9. La cote a d\u00e9j\u00e0 boug\u00e9, de 1,925 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture, et l&#8217;argent est all\u00e9 vers Paul en deux sets, de 3,40 \u00e0 3,00 : le march\u00e9 voit le m\u00eame match que moi. La valeur que je calcule est r\u00e9elle sans \u00eatre \u00e9norme : <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">le site en tire une mise<\/a> de 0,75 unit\u00e9, 75 $. Gagn\u00e9 : 58,50 $ de gain net. Perdu : la mise enti\u00e8re, 75 $.<\/p>\n<p>Le sc\u00e9nario du pari tient en une phrase : si Paul sert comme jeudi, Shelton devra le prendre au retour, et c&#8217;est l\u00e0 que l&#8217;\u00e9cart est le plus net. Mon pronostic rejoint le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 comme perdu. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tommy Paul a quitt\u00e9 le court Central jeudi au bout d&#8217;une heure trente-cinq, Ben Shelton apr\u00e8s deux heures trois : sur le court le plus rapide des Masters 1000 de la saison, je prends Paul \u00e0 1,78 pour le dernier billet de Turin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":17460,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Quart de finale du Masters de Paris : Paul, plus frais et meilleur retourneur, d\u00e9fie Shelton, d\u00e9j\u00e0 qualifi\u00e9 pour Turin. Pronostic : Paul \u00e0 1,78.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"B. Shelton","ba_away_name":"T. Paul","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-06 13:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12177788","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pcdfj6c5xc4","author_id":6,"market":"Vainqueur du match","selection":"Tommy Paul","bookmaker":"Betano","market_key":"ml","selection_key":"away","line":null,"odds":1.78,"stake_units":0.75,"stake_amount":75,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":58.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-05 21:37:40","settled_at":"","probability":0.6,"p_market":0.5497,"p_used":0.5749,"edge":0.0232,"market_margin":0.0552,"market_books":7,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-17459","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Shelton &#8211; Paul : vingt-huit minutes d&#8217;\u00e9cart dans les jambes, un billet de Turin en jeu &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Quart de finale du Masters de Paris : Paul, plus frais et meilleur retourneur, d\u00e9fie Shelton, d\u00e9j\u00e0 qualifi\u00e9 pour Turin. 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