{"id":17569,"date":"2026-11-06T08:41:32","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T07:41:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/fritz-alcaraz-sur-un-court-plus-rapide-le-service-de-fritz-vaut-au-moins-un-set\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T08:41:44","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T07:41:44","slug":"fritz-alcaraz-pronostic-2026-11-06","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/fritz-alcaraz-pronostic-2026-11-06\/","title":{"rendered":"Fritz &#8211; Alcaraz : sur un court plus rapide, le service de Fritz vaut au moins un set"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Un favori qui dort, un serveur qui joue tous les jours<\/h2>\n<p>Jeudi soir, Taylor Fritz a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 Arthur Fils en 71 minutes : 6-3 6-4, quatorze aces, pas un jeu de service abandonn\u00e9 face au dernier Fran\u00e7ais du tableau. Sa <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/news\/fils-fritz-paris-2026-thursday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">centi\u00e8me victoire en Masters 1000<\/a>, prise devant un public acquis \u00e0 Fils. Au m\u00eame moment, Carlos Alcaraz passait son huiti\u00e8me sans jouer : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rfi.fr\/en\/sports\/20261105-alcaraz-into-paris-masters-quarters-after-berrettini-withdraws\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matteo Berrettini a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 forfait<\/a>, une douleur au bras. Vendredi, Fritz disputera son quatri\u00e8me match en quatre jours ; Alcaraz arrivera avec un jour de repos de plus et le titre de Vienne gagn\u00e9 dimanche contre De Minaur (6-1 6-4).<\/p>\n<h2>Un service \u00e0 92 %, un court plus rapide que l&#8217;an dernier<\/h2>\n<p>Le service de Fritz d\u00e9cide de ce quart. Sur ses dix derniers matchs, il a gagn\u00e9 92,3 % de ses jeux de service ; contre Fils, il n&#8217;en a c\u00e9d\u00e9 aucun. Le court de la Pl\u00e9nitude Arena joue plus rapide que l&#8217;an dernier ; <a href=\"https:\/\/tennishead.net\/carlos-alcaraz-shares-what-other-players-have-told-him-about-the-courts-at-the-paris-masters-this-year\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">c&#8217;est Alcaraz lui-m\u00eame qui le constatait<\/a> apr\u00e8s son premier match. Salle ferm\u00e9e, surface rapide, gros serveur en confiance : l&#8217;endroit classique o\u00f9 un outsider arrache un set \u00e0 un favori, m\u00eame en perdant.<\/p>\n<p>Sa <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/scores\/current\/paris\/352\/results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">semaine parisienne<\/a> tient en trois lignes :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Tour<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>3 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Premier tour<\/td>\n<td>Bonzi<\/td>\n<td>3-6 6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>4 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Deuxi\u00e8me tour<\/td>\n<td>Molcan<\/td>\n<td>6-7 7-5 7-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>5 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Huiti\u00e8mes<\/td>\n<td>Fils<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>L&#8217;enjeu d\u00e9passe le quart : onzi\u00e8me de la course \u00e0 Turin, Fritz pointe \u00e0 184 points de Jodar, et chaque victoire ici le rapproche du Masters de fin de saison.<\/p>\n<p>Trois choses \u00e0 surveiller vendredi soir :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>La charge : dix sets jou\u00e9s sur sept jours pour Fritz, six pour Alcaraz, et un seul match disput\u00e9 ici.<\/li>\n<li>Le retour d&#8217;Alcaraz : il gagne 35,8 % de ses jeux de retour sur ses dix derniers matchs, le moteur de ses victoires rapides.<\/li>\n<li>Les tie-breaks : Alcaraz en joue environ un tous les trois sets ; Fritz en a disput\u00e9 deux contre Molcan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Six d\u00e9faites en sept duels, des sets pris quand m\u00eame<\/h2>\n<p>Alcaraz m\u00e8ne six duels \u00e0 un, un chiffre qui fait le favori : \u00e0 1,35, le march\u00e9 lui donne environ trois chances sur quatre. Pour mon pari, un autre d\u00e9tail compte plus. \u00c0 la Laver Cup fin septembre, Fritz a pris un set (3-6 6-4 11-13). Aux ATP Finals de Turin en novembre 2025, un autre (7-6 5-7 3-6). En demi-finale de Wimbledon 2025, un troisi\u00e8me (4-6 7-5 3-6 6-7), pour un match \u00e0 quatre sets. Et Paris n&#8217;a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 le meilleur terrain d&#8217;Alcaraz : cinq victoires, cinq d\u00e9faites, jamais mieux que les quarts.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Fritz +1,5 set \u00e0 1,85<\/h2>\n<p>Je ne prends pas la victoire de Fritz ; \u00e0 3,50, elle demande un exploit complet. Je prends ce qu&#8217;il fait le plus souvent contre Alcaraz : prendre un set. \u00c0 1,85 chez BetMGM ce vendredi, le march\u00e9 met Fritz un peu au-dessus d&#8217;une chance sur deux pour en prendre au moins un ; mon mod\u00e8le donne 63,1 % \u00e0 ce pari, et je le rabats \u00e0 59 %, parce qu&#8217;un Alcaraz repos\u00e9 par un forfait vaut mieux que d&#8217;habitude.<\/p>\n<p>La mise calcul\u00e9e est de 0,75 unit\u00e9, soit 75 $, pour un gain potentiel de 63,75 $ : une mise de prudence. Fritz prend au moins un set, le pari gagne ; Alcaraz l&#8217;emporte 2-0, il perd. La logique de la mise se voit sur le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a>, et ce pari rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alcaraz est favori, plus frais, et m\u00e8ne six duels \u00e0 un : je prends pourtant Fritz +1,5 set \u00e0 1,85, parce que son service tient trop bien en salle pour un 2-0 sec.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":17572,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Quart du Masters de Paris : mon pronostic sur Fritz et Alcaraz. Un service \u00e0 92 % et un court plus rapide me font prendre Fritz +1,5 set \u00e0 1,85.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Taylor Fritz","ba_away_name":"Carlos Alcaraz","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-11-06 18:00:00","ba_venue":"Paris","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12177878","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pwyjsi5iv1r","author_id":6,"market":"Handicap en sets","selection":"Taylor Fritz +1,5 set","bookmaker":"BetMGM","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"home","line":1.5,"odds":1.85,"stake_units":0.75,"stake_amount":75,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":63.75,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"pending","recorded_at":"2026-11-06 07:41:49","settled_at":"","probability":0.59,"p_market":0.5174,"p_used":0.5537,"edge":0.0243,"market_margin":0.0737,"market_books":3,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[125,29],"class_list":["post-17569","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-atp","ba_sport-tennis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fritz &#8211; Alcaraz : sur un court plus rapide, le service de Fritz vaut au moins un set &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Quart du Masters de Paris : mon pronostic sur Fritz et Alcaraz. 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