{"id":17589,"date":"2026-11-06T08:42:54","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T07:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/ruud-borges-le-lucky-loser-qui-la-battu-a-bale-na-plus-lache-un-seul-set\/"},"modified":"2026-11-06T08:43:09","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T07:43:09","slug":"ruud-borges-pronostic-2026-11-06","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/ruud-borges-pronostic-2026-11-06\/","title":{"rendered":"Ruud &#8211; Borges : le lucky loser qui l&#8217;a battu \u00e0 B\u00e2le n&#8217;a plus l\u00e2ch\u00e9 un seul set"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le 1er novembre, Nuno Borges a perdu le dernier tour des qualifications contre Alex Molcan : 6-7 2-6. Rep\u00each\u00e9 lucky loser, il a depuis battu Kouame (6-3 6-1), Khachanov (6-3 6-4) puis Buse (6-0 6-2), sans l\u00e2cher un set : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.perfect-tennis.com\/paris-masters-2026-day-four-recap\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">aucun rep\u00each\u00e9 n&#8217;\u00e9tait all\u00e9 en quarts de ce tournoi avant lui<\/a>. Casper Ruud, lui, a attendu sagement : trois matchs, trois victoires, aucun set perdu.<\/p>\n<p>La semaine parisienne des deux hommes, qualifications comprises :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Joueur<\/th>\n<th>Tour<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>1er nov.<\/td>\n<td>Borges<\/td>\n<td>Dernier tour de qualifications<\/td>\n<td>Molcan<\/td>\n<td>6-7 2-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Ruud<\/td>\n<td>Premier tour<\/td>\n<td>Cerundolo<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Borges<\/td>\n<td>Premier tour<\/td>\n<td>Kouame<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Ruud<\/td>\n<td>Deuxi\u00e8me tour<\/td>\n<td>Jodar<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>4 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Borges<\/td>\n<td>Deuxi\u00e8me tour<\/td>\n<td>Khachanov<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>5 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Borges<\/td>\n<td>Huiti\u00e8mes<\/td>\n<td>Buse<\/td>\n<td>6-0 6-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>5 nov.<\/td>\n<td>Ruud<\/td>\n<td>Huiti\u00e8mes<\/td>\n<td>Struff<\/td>\n<td>6-3 6-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Ce que B\u00e2le raconte des deux<\/h2>\n<p>Le 28 octobre, en huiti\u00e8mes \u00e0 B\u00e2le, Borges a renvers\u00e9 Ruud : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atptour.com\/en\/scores\/stats-centre\/live\/2026\/328\/ms011\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1-6 6-3 6-4<\/a>, apr\u00e8s un premier set balay\u00e9. Le Norv\u00e9gien a repris la marche ensuite : sorti s\u00e8chement par Struff \u00e0 B\u00e2le (2-6 3-6), il a gagn\u00e9 ses trois matchs parisiens sans perdre un set, dont la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rolexparismasters.com\/en\/news\/article\/round-of-16-casper-ruud-success-jan-lennard-struff\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">revanche sur Struff jeudi<\/a> (6-3 6-3), huit aces et aucun jeu de service c\u00e9d\u00e9. Neuf jours apr\u00e8s ce huiti\u00e8me de finale, les deux se recroisent.<\/p>\n<h2>La fatigue, compt\u00e9e en sets<\/h2>\n<p>Le parcours de Borges ressemble \u00e0 un pi\u00e8ge de fatigue : cinq matchs en sept jours, dont une demi-finale de qualifications en trois sets contre Mannarino le 31 octobre, et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.raquetc.com\/2026\/11\/01\/nuno-borges-despede-se-de-paris-com-retrospetiva-positiva-a-um-2026-muito-consistente-e-com-grandes-vitorias\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">48 heures sans repos entre B\u00e2le et Paris, selon la presse portugaise<\/a>. Le d\u00e9tail rassurant : ses trois matchs du tableau principal ont tenu en deux sets, celui de jeudi s&#8217;est r\u00e9gl\u00e9 en 1 h 11, et il n&#8217;a pas perdu un set depuis son rep\u00eachage. La facture est plus l\u00e9g\u00e8re que le nombre de matchs.<\/p>\n<p>Les chiffres de service dessinent un match serr\u00e9 en jeux : sur dix matchs, Borges tient 81,6 % de ses jeux de service, Ruud 84,5 % ; en retour, 29,8 % pour Borges, 25 % pour Ruud. Mon estimation : autour de 25 jeux disput\u00e9s, pas une d\u00e9monstration.<\/p>\n<h2>Borges +2,5 jeux \u00e0 2,08 : mon pari<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 fait de Ruud un favori net : 1,50, environ deux chances sur trois. La victoire s\u00e8che de Borges paie 2,90, cher pour ce qu&#8217;elle demande contre un joueur de ce calibre. Entre les deux, le handicap en jeux dit mieux ce que je pense de l&#8217;\u00e9cart. \u00c0 2,08 chez Unibet ce vendredi, Borges +2,5 jeux gagne s&#8217;il remporte le match ou s&#8217;il perd avec deux jeux de retard au plus ; il perd si Ruud le distance de trois jeux ou plus.<\/p>\n<p>Mon mod\u00e8le donne 65,9 % \u00e0 Borges avec deux jeux et demi d&#8217;avance ; je le rabats nettement, \u00e0 54 % : ses trois victoires parisiennes sont tomb\u00e9es contre des adversaires moins solides que Ruud, et sa semaine compte cinq matchs. M\u00eame rabattu, le prix garde un avantage : le march\u00e9 place Borges un peu sous une chance sur deux. Le devis engage une mise pleine : 1 unit\u00e9, 100 $, pour 108 $ de gain potentiel. La logique de la mise est sur le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> ; ce pari rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Battu au dernier tour des qualifications puis rep\u00each\u00e9, Nuno Borges n&#8217;a plus perdu un set. Je prends Borges +2,5 jeux \u00e0 2,08 : mieux pay\u00e9 que sa victoire, et plus proche de ma lecture du match.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":17592,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Quart du Masters de Paris : mon pronostic sur Ruud et Borges. 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