{"id":2476,"date":"2026-09-30T05:33:39","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T03:33:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/castres-toulouse-pronostic-2026-10-03\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T23:09:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T21:09:25","slug":"castres-toulouse-pronostic-2026-10-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/castres-toulouse-pronostic-2026-10-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Castres &#8211; Toulouse : vingt bless\u00e9s pour le champion, Pierre-Fabre invaincue"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Thomas Ramos s&#8217;est bless\u00e9 \u00e0 la cuisse \u00e0 l&#8217;entra\u00eenement cette semaine : deux \u00e0 trois semaines d&#8217;arr\u00eat, et le derby perd son ouvreur pressenti. <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/feuille-de-match\/2026-2027\/j5\/11850-castres-toulouse\/compositions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La feuille de match de la LNR n&#8217;affichait toujours aucune composition vendredi<\/a>. Le leader du Top 14 arrive quand m\u00eame \u00e0 Pierre-Fabre avec quatre victoires en quatre matchs : ce derby se lit dans la feuille des absents, et elle s&#8217;allonge.<\/p>\n<h2>Quatre sur quatre, et une infirmerie qui grossit encore<\/h2>\n<p>Toulouse n&#8217;a rien l\u00e2ch\u00e9 depuis la reprise : quatre victoires, la premi\u00e8re place, et un bonus pris contre Montpellier (40-18) en quatri\u00e8me journ\u00e9e. Le reste se joue \u00e0 l&#8217;infirmerie : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lerugbynistere.fr\/news\/toulouse-penurie-en-2eme-ligne-dupont-et-ntamack-au-repos-quelle-compo-probable-pour-le-derby-a-castres\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">vingt-deux bless\u00e9s dimanche selon le staff, vingt-trois selon Gourgues<\/a>, plus <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/02\/top-14-toulouse-touche-a-une-cuisse-thomas-ramos-forfait-pour-le-deplacement-a-castres-13580549.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ramos, forfait annonc\u00e9 vendredi<\/a>. La p\u00e9nurie se loge en deuxi\u00e8me ligne : Verg\u00e9 et Meafou sont absents pour longtemps, Elias d\u00e9panne en troisi\u00e8me, et Flament reste incertain. Sans Meafou ni Verg\u00e9, je vois mal le ruck toulousain rester rapide, et un ruck lent \u00e0 Pierre-Fabre, \u00e7a se paie.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Meafou, genou op\u00e9r\u00e9, absent plusieurs mois ;<\/li>\n<li>Jelonch (\u00e9paule), Verg\u00e9 (genou), Banos (dos) ;<\/li>\n<li>Mauvaka (cheville), Hawkes (tendon d&#8217;Achille), Kinghorn, \u00c9p\u00e9e ;<\/li>\n<li>Castro-Ferreira et Barassi (cheville), Ainu&#8217;u, Mallez, Delpy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00c0 la charni\u00e8re, la presse annonce Mallia \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture, de retour le 19 septembre d&#8217;une grave blessure au genou, et Graou \u00e0 la m\u00eal\u00e9e. Dupont et Ntamack sont au repos au titre de la liste des 33 prot\u00e9g\u00e9s, Cros et Willis restent incertains au genou, et le num\u00e9ro 13 se joue, dans la presse, entre Menoncello et Teddy Thomas.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00c0 la maison le CO tient, dehors il plie<\/h2>\n<p>Deux victoires, deux d\u00e9faites : le bilan castrais se lit sur une carte.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Journ\u00e9e<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Lieu<\/th>\n<th>R\u00e9sultat<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>1<\/td>\n<td>Vannes<\/td>\n<td>Pierre-Fabre<\/td>\n<td>victoire 29-20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>d\u00e9faite 43-29<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>Toulon<\/td>\n<td>Pierre-Fabre<\/td>\n<td>victoire 29-27<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>Clermont<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>d\u00e9faite 20-6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>C\u00f4t\u00e9 CO, Collier, Sokobale et Tukino sont les absents annonc\u00e9s ; le point m\u00e9dical officiel n&#8217;est toujours pas publi\u00e9, et Papali&#8217;i, donn\u00e9 absent en d\u00e9but de semaine, revient sur le banc dans une composition probable. La presse locale voit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lejournaldici.com\/actualite-26070-une-charniere-le-brun-arata-pour-lancer-le-derby\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">la charni\u00e8re Le Brun-Arata lancer le derby<\/a>, avec Vanverberghe en pointe du combat.<\/p>\n<p>En avril, Toulouse avait gagn\u00e9 42-25 \u00e0 Pierre-Fabre, sa premi\u00e8re victoire ici depuis sept ans. La forteresse a d\u00e9j\u00e0 pris ; l&#8217;emporter avec une \u00e9quipe remani\u00e9e, c&#8217;est une autre histoire.<\/p>\n<h2>Vendredi, le march\u00e9 a invers\u00e9 le derby<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 l&#8217;ouverture, Toulouse valait 1,444 et Castres 3,145. Vendredi matin, le CO cote 1,67 chez Betano et le champion d\u00e9rive \u00e0 2,375 chez Betway : le derby a chang\u00e9 de favori. Les absences toulousaines sont publiques depuis des jours ; laquelle a fait pencher le prix, rien ne le dit.<\/p>\n<p>La ligne principale du handicap a suivi le mouvement : elle donne d\u00e9sormais Castres -1,5 \u00e0 2,00 chez Bet365, contre Toulouse +1,5 \u00e0 2,05 chez 1xbet. Pour le march\u00e9, ce derby se joue sur un point d&#8217;\u00e9cart. La ligne de +4,5, elle, n&#8217;a presque pas boug\u00e9 : 1,85 chez Unibet, contre 1,90 \u00e0 la prise.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Castres +4,5 \u00e0 1,90<\/h2>\n<p>Un favori amoindri dans un chaudron, je pr\u00e9f\u00e8re la ligne au vainqueur, et je l&#8217;ai prise avant le renversement. Je donne 55 % de chances au CO de finir \u00e0 quatre points ou moins de Toulouse ; \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, la cote en promet 52,6. Mercredi, la victoire du CO valait 2,77 et demandait l&#8217;exploit complet ; vendredi, le march\u00e9 la paie 1,67. Le pari a vieilli dans le bon sens : un match ferm\u00e9, perdu de peu ou pas du tout, reste le sc\u00e9nario le plus vraisemblable.<\/p>\n<p>0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $ : une fois ma lecture m\u00eal\u00e9e \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9, l&#8217;avantage dispara\u00eet, et la mise reste minimale. Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> fait ce calcul sur n&#8217;importe quelle cote.<\/p>\n<p>Concr\u00e8tement, Castres +4,5 passe si le CO gagne, fait nul ou perd de quatre points au plus ; il est perdu si le CO s&#8217;incline de cinq points ou plus. Le pari rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>7-8, le match ferm\u00e9 jusqu&#8217;au bout<\/h2>\n<p>Castres s&#8217;incline d&#8217;un point, 7-8, \u00e0 Pierre-Fabre. Le sc\u00e9nario du texte s&#8217;est jou\u00e9 au point pr\u00e8s : un match ferm\u00e9, perdu de peu, quinze points en tout, loin sous le total de 55,5 points affich\u00e9 avant le coup d&#8217;envoi. Castres +4,5 passe sans \u00eatre inqui\u00e9t\u00e9, plus 22,50 $ sur la mise minimale.<\/p>\n<p>Le favori, lui, est tomb\u00e9 : le march\u00e9 mettait Castres \u00e0 1,67, Toulouse a gagn\u00e9 quand m\u00eame, et le handicap positif a couvert exactement ce qu&#8217;il devait couvrir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Castres s&#8217;est inclin\u00e9 7-8 \u00e0 Pierre-Fabre : Castres +4,5 passe sans \u00eatre inqui\u00e9t\u00e9, plus 22,50 $. Le match ferm\u00e9 annonc\u00e9 s&#8217;est jou\u00e9 au point pr\u00e8s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4496,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Castres \u2013 Toulouse (Top 14) : Ramos forfait, Dupont au repos, Castres favori \u00e0 1,67. Mon pari : Castres +4,5 \u00e0 1,90.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Castres Olympique","ba_away_name":"Stade Toulousain","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-03 19:00:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54113","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"prrtqsyzlp0","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Castres +4,5 points","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"home","line":4.5,"odds":1.9,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":22.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-09-30 03:34:23","settled_at":"2026-10-03 21:00:06","probability":0.55,"p_market":0.5,"p_used":0.525,"edge":-0.0025,"market_margin":0.0811,"market_books":3,"closing_odds":1.8,"p_close":0.7174,"clv":0.3631,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-2476","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Castres &#8211; Toulouse : vingt bless\u00e9s pour le champion, Pierre-Fabre invaincue &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Castres \u2013 Toulouse (Top 14) : Ramos forfait, Dupont au repos, Castres favori \u00e0 1,67. 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