{"id":2615,"date":"2026-09-30T11:45:57","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:45:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/panathinaikos-asvel-pronostic-2026-09-30\/"},"modified":"2026-09-30T23:12:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T21:12:21","slug":"panathinaikos-asvel-pronostic-2026-09-30","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/basket\/euroleague\/panathinaikos-asvel-pronostic-2026-09-30\/","title":{"rendered":"Panathina\u00efkos \u2013 ASVEL : \u00e0 9,50, l\u2019ASVEL n\u2019est pas l\u00e0 pour perdre de quinze"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le Panathina\u00efkos a ouvert sa saison par un 91-72 sur Paris ; l&#8217;ASVEL, par un 84-74 sur le Maccabi. Deux \u00e9quipes \u00e0 1-0, un favori \u00e9crasant, et une ligne \u00e0 14,5 points que je lis plus courte que le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h2>Cinq absents grecs, tous officiels<\/h2>\n<p>Le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/en\/euroleague\/news\/injury-report-round-2-el2627\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rapport m\u00e9dical de la deuxi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e<\/a> les liste d\u00e9sormais tous les cinq :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kendrick Nunn : m\u00e9nisque interne droit, retour envisag\u00e9 vers la journ\u00e9e 4 ;<\/li>\n<li>Kostas Sloukas : r\u00e9\u00e9ducation, jambe ;<\/li>\n<li>Nigel Hayes-Davis : fracture du quatri\u00e8me m\u00e9tacarpien gauche ;<\/li>\n<li>Moustapha Fall : ischios ;<\/li>\n<li>Juancho Hernangomez : spasme \u00e0 l&#8217;aine, forfait cette journ\u00e9e et la suivante.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Il reste du monde, et du lourd : Francisco, 18 points contre Paris, Grant, Lessort, Mitoglou, Yabusele, et un Rogkavopoulos pas encore \u00e0 cent pour cent. Sans Nunn ni Sloukas, la cr\u00e9ation passe surtout par Francisco et Grant, et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pagenews.gr\/2026\/09\/28\/athlitismos\/panathinaikos-i-dyskoli-eksisosi-omprantovits-poioi-menoun-gia-bilermpan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">la presse grecque a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait de la gestion des minutes<\/a> l&#8217;angle de la semaine : apr\u00e8s l&#8217;ASVEL, le Panathina\u00efkos re\u00e7oit le Maccabi d\u00e8s vendredi, et l&#8217;ASVEL retrouve Valence \u00e0 la maison le m\u00eame soir.<\/p>\n<h2>Ce que l&#8217;ASVEL a montr\u00e9, et ce qu&#8217;il lui manque<\/h2>\n<p>Contre le Maccabi, l&#8217;ASVEL a gagn\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/en\/euroleague\/news\/parker-proves-point-as-asvel-powers-past-maccabi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">avec trois joueurs chauds<\/a> : Crowder 19 points, Mills 15, Fodzo Dada 14. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/euroleague\/news\/tae2627-rs2-game-notes-pan-asv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Le Panathina\u00efkos a gagn\u00e9 les neuf derni\u00e8res confrontations<\/a>, et il en a fallu un point aux Grecs pour s&#8217;imposer en janvier \u00e0 Villeurbanne (78-79). C\u00f4t\u00e9 feuille lyonnaise, l&#8217;ouverture s&#8217;est jou\u00e9e sans Mathis Dossou-Yovo (adducteurs, jusqu&#8217;en novembre), Nate Sestina, Edwin Jackson ni TyTy Washington. Pas de rapport m\u00e9dical c\u00f4t\u00e9 ASVEL : Jackson et Washington restent incertains, les listes du jour se contredisent.<\/p>\n<p>Sur la journ\u00e9e 1, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/en\/euroleague\/game-center\/2026-27\/panathinaikos-aktor-athens-ldlc-asvel-villeurbanne\/E2026\/20\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">les chiffres des deux \u00e9quipes<\/a> ne racontent pas le m\u00eame match :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Statistique (J1)<\/th>\n<th>Panathina\u00efkos<\/th>\n<th>ASVEL<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Points marqu\u00e9s<\/td>\n<td>91<\/td>\n<td>84<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Rebonds<\/td>\n<td>45<\/td>\n<td>29<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>R\u00e9ussite \u00e0 3 points<\/td>\n<td>34,5 %<\/td>\n<td>47,1 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>La cote a boug\u00e9, la ligne a tenu<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 corrig\u00e9 une partie du probl\u00e8me grec : la cote de l&#8217;ASVEL est pass\u00e9e de 13,0 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture \u00e0 9,50 chez 888Sport, et le -14,5 du Panathina\u00efkos a l\u00e2ch\u00e9 du prix (2,08 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture, 2,04 ce mercredi matin chez Unibet). Le vainqueur, lui, n&#8217;a pas boug\u00e9 : 1,113 pour le Panathina\u00efkos chez 1xbet. Le march\u00e9 a gliss\u00e9 ailleurs : plus de 90,5 points c\u00f4t\u00e9 grec pass\u00e9 de 1,89 \u00e0 1,98 chez Unibet ce matin, plus de 75,5 points c\u00f4t\u00e9 ASVEL descendu de 1,90 \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365. Des points d\u00e9plac\u00e9s du favori vers l&#8217;outsider, sans toucher la ligne du pari : l&#8217;ASVEL +14,5 se paie toujours 2,00 chez 888Sport, depuis mardi.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 1,113, la victoire du Panathina\u00efkos ne paie rien : tout se joue sur l&#8217;\u00e9cart. Cinq joueurs en moins dans la rotation grecque, un calendrier qui resserre les minutes, face \u00e0 une \u00e9quipe adroite de loin et qui joue Ath\u00e8nes sans complexe. Le -14,5 me semble trop long pour un favori r\u00e9duit.<\/p>\n<h2>Le pari : l&#8217;ASVEL avec 14,5 points<\/h2>\n<p>Mon pari : ASVEL +14,5 points, \u00e0 2,00 chez 888Sport. Gagn\u00e9 si l&#8217;ASVEL s&#8217;impose ou perd de quatorze points ou moins : +150 $ pour 150 $ mis\u00e9s. Perdu si l&#8217;\u00e9cart monte \u00e0 quinze points ou plus : -150 $. Prolongations comprises.<\/p>\n<p>Je donne 55 % \u00e0 la couverture du +14,5, quand la cote \u00e0 2,00 la met exactement \u00e0 50. Cinq absences qui raccourcissent la rotation d&#8217;Ath\u00e8nes, une double semaine qui p\u00e8sera sur les minutes des titulaires, un ASVEL qui a commenc\u00e9 sa saison par une victoire nette : mon avantage vient de l\u00e0. Ma probabilit\u00e9, m\u00eal\u00e9e \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9, donne la mise : 1,5 unit\u00e9, 150 $. J&#8217;assume.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari saute si le Panathina\u00efkos creuse d\u00e8s le premier quart sur la profondeur de son banc, Francisco en rythme. Il tient si l&#8217;ASVEL reste dans les cordes apr\u00e8s dix minutes, comme en janvier \u00e0 Villeurbanne. Pour transformer votre propre probabilit\u00e9 en mise, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> fait le calcul ; mes r\u00e9sultats, gagn\u00e9s et perdus, sont sur le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. 18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>102-79 : cinq absents, vingt-trois points d&#8217;\u00e9cart<\/h2>\n<p>Score final : 102-79. Le Panathina\u00efkos gagne de vingt-trois points et mon pari ASVEL +14,5 \u00e0 2,00 chez 888Sport est perdu : -150 $.<\/p>\n<p>Mon angle tenait en une phrase : un favori priv\u00e9 de cinq joueurs gagne moins large. Il \u00e9tait faux. Ce qui restait \u00e0 Ath\u00e8nes a largement suffi, et l&#8217;\u00e9cart final d\u00e9passe de huit points et demi la ligne que je voulais couvrir. Mon 55 % sur la couverture \u00e9tait trop haut, la ligne de 14,5 points mieux plac\u00e9e que ma lecture. La perte va au bilan, enti\u00e8re.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Panathina\u00efkos 102-79, victoire de vingt-trois points : mon ASVEL +14,5 \u00e0 2,00 est perdu (-150 $). La ligne \u00e9tait mieux plac\u00e9e que ma lecture.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3186,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Panathina\u00efkos \u2013 ASVEL : pronostic EuroLeague. ASVEL +14,5 points \u00e0 2,00 chez 888Sport, mise de 1,5 u, un favori grec r\u00e9duit par les absences.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Panathina\u00efkos","ba_away_name":"ASVEL","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-09-30 18:15:00","ba_venue":"Telekom Center Athens","ba_match_key":"api-sports:basketball:508601","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[24,95],"class_list":["post-2615","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-basket","ba_sport-euroleague"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Panathina\u00efkos \u2013 ASVEL : \u00e0 9,50, l\u2019ASVEL n\u2019est pas l\u00e0 pour perdre de quinze &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Panathina\u00efkos \u2013 ASVEL : pronostic EuroLeague. 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