{"id":2635,"date":"2026-09-30T11:52:45","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T09:52:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/danemark-portugal-pronostic-2026-10-01\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T23:14:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:14:21","slug":"danemark-portugal-pronostic-2026-10-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/danemark-portugal-pronostic-2026-10-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Danemark \u2013 Portugal : neuf absents \u00e0 Copenhague, Ronaldo en suspens"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Neuf. Le Danemark pr\u00e9sente neuf forfaits jeudi soir au Parken, \u00e0 guichets ferm\u00e9s quand m\u00eame. \u00ab On n&#8217;a jamais vu \u00e7a \u00bb, a l\u00e2ch\u00e9 Brian Riemer mardi devant la presse ; \u00ab on est tr\u00e8s bas sur la liste. \u00bb Et le s\u00e9lectionneur de conclure : son \u00e9quipe n&#8217;est pas favorite, m\u00eame \u00e0 domicile, quatre jours apr\u00e8s avoir domin\u00e9 le Pays de Galles.<\/p>\n<h2>Neuf forfaits danois, des rappels de fortune<\/h2>\n<p>La colonne vert\u00e9brale y passe :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/bold.dk\/fodbold\/nyheder\/riemer-efter-ni-afbud-vi-er-langt-nede-pa-listen\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">huit bless\u00e9s<\/a> : Dolberg, dont \u00ab le genou a explos\u00e9 \u00bb selon Riemer ; Dorgu, sorti bless\u00e9 contre le Pays de Galles et renvoy\u00e9 \u00e0 Manchester United sans doublure directe ; Osula, Mathias Jensen, Andreas Christensen, Bah, Gr\u00f8nb\u00e6k ; et Eriksen, non convoqu\u00e9 et sans club selon TV2, bless\u00e9 selon bold.dk ;<\/li>\n<li>Victor Bak, malade, rentr\u00e9 \u00e0 FC Midtjylland ;<\/li>\n<li>Skov Olsen et Nartey, rappel\u00e9s en renfort, le second tout juste remis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Cinq joueurs ont quitt\u00e9 le stage depuis lundi. Mardi, Riemer pr\u00e9parait des changements, chiffres \u00e0 l&#8217;appui : \u00ab 11 joueurs ne peuvent pas jouer quatre matchs en 11 jours. \u00bb Mercredi, il a ferm\u00e9 la porte \u00e0 la rotation massive : \u00ab on ne change pas dix joueurs pour un match comme \u00e7a \u00bb, la meilleure \u00e9quipe possible, \u00ab le plus de minutes possible \u00bb, 23 joueurs \u00ab \u00e0 100 % pr\u00eats \u00bb. Le meilleur onze danois jouera ; il reste un onze amput\u00e9 de neuf hommes. La presse danoise aligne toujours <a href=\"https:\/\/www.plbold.dk\/nyhed\/forventede-startopstillinger-danmark-portugal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">un 4-2-3-1<\/a> avec Damsgaard, Daramy et Daghim derri\u00e8re H\u00f8jlund, Isaksen restant dehors : un bloc reconstruit \u00e0 la veille d&#8217;un sommet se voit au premier ballon.<\/p>\n<h2>Le vestiaire portugais bouge, la profondeur reste<\/h2>\n<p>Ronaldo, 41 ans, a regard\u00e9 la Norv\u00e8ge depuis le banc, une premi\u00e8re depuis 2008, et est rentr\u00e9 sans saluer les supporters. Il n&#8217;a plus suivi d&#8217;entra\u00eenement collectif complet depuis samedi : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtp.pt\/noticias\/ligadasnacoes\/cristiano-ronaldo-nao-treinou-com-a-equipa-na-preparacao-do-dinamarca-portugal_d1768479\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mardi, il a quitt\u00e9 la pelouse de Malm\u00f6 pour du travail en salle<\/a>, la FPF parlant d&#8217;un \u00e9quipement manquant dans le gymnase du stade et d&#8217;aucun probl\u00e8me physique. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abola.pt\/noticias\/dois-dias-sem-treinar-e-a-dinamarca-ai-a-porta-tudo-sobre-o-caso-ronaldo-2026092922162634958\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A Bola, depuis Copenhague, voit Gon\u00e7alo Ramos en t\u00eate<\/a> pour la pointe. Le onze officiel lui donne raison : Gon\u00e7alo Ramos d\u00e9marre, avec Cancelo et Vitinha ; Dalot reste sur le banc. Le d\u00e9saccord avec Jorge Jesus s&#8217;est rejou\u00e9 en discussion mardi soir, \u00ab \u00e9tapes positives \u00bb selon la presse ; le pr\u00e9sident de la FPF, lui, a fait le voyage jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 Copenhague.<\/p>\n<p>Le fond tient mieux que la forme. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ligaportugal.pt\/noticias\/28688\/os-convocados-para-os-proximos-quatro-jogos-da-selecao-nacional\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bruno Fernandes est de retour<\/a> et titulaire apr\u00e8s avoir manqu\u00e9 la Norv\u00e8ge. \u00c0 Oslo, la paire F\u00e9lix et Gon\u00e7alo Ramos a marqu\u00e9, et le Portugal a gagn\u00e9 sans Ronaldo titulaire. Le seul forfait confirm\u00e9 c\u00f4t\u00e9 portugais : Francisco Concei\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<h2>La cote a d\u00e9j\u00e0 dig\u00e9r\u00e9 la crise danoise<\/h2>\n<p>Six r\u00e9sultats \u00e0 garder en t\u00eate avant ce Parken :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u00c9quipe<\/th>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Danemark<\/td>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Pays de Galles (dom.)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Danemark<\/td>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Norv\u00e8ge (ext.)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Danemark<\/td>\n<td>07\/06<\/td>\n<td>Ukraine (dom.)<\/td>\n<td>Amical<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Norv\u00e8ge (ext.)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Pays de Galles (dom.)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>06\/07<\/td>\n<td>Espagne (dom.)<\/td>\n<td>Coupe du monde<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Deux victoires en deux sorties pour le Portugal dans cette Ligue des nations, une d\u00e9faite et une victoire pour le Danemark : le classement, six points contre trois, suit la m\u00eame pente. En mars 2025, ces \u00e9quipes se sont partag\u00e9 les honneurs, 1-0 \u00e0 Copenhague puis 5-2 au retour ; l&#8217;\u00e9cart de ce mois-l\u00e0 ne vaut plus pour octobre.<\/p>\n<p>Le march\u00e9, lui, avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 boug\u00e9 avant cette mise \u00e0 jour : le Danemark a gliss\u00e9 de 3,70 \u00e0 3,50 chez Bet365, le Portugal a d\u00e9riv\u00e9 de 2,10 \u00e0 2,15 chez Bwin ES, le nul tient \u00e0 3,90 ; au relev\u00e9 de ce mercredi, les trois prix n&#8217;ont pas boug\u00e9. \u00c0 2,15, le march\u00e9 donne un peu moins d&#8217;une chance sur deux au Portugal en 90 minutes : l&#8217;h\u00e9catombe danoise est dans le prix, l&#8217;incertitude autour du onze portugais aussi. Le seul mouvement du jour va vers les buts : plus de 2,75 est pass\u00e9 de 2,33 \u00e0 1,875 chez Bet365, \u00ab les deux \u00e9quipes marquent \u00bb de 1,83 \u00e0 1,62 chez Unibet.<\/p>\n<h2>Le pari : le Portugal en 90 minutes<\/h2>\n<p>Mon pari : la victoire du Portugal dans le temps r\u00e9glementaire, \u00e0 2,15 chez Bwin ES. Gagn\u00e9 : +86,25 $ pour 75 $ mis\u00e9s. Nul ou victoire danoise : \u221275 $.<\/p>\n<p>Je donne 50 % au Portugal l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la cote en promet 46,5. Le Danemark alignera son meilleur onze, Riemer l&#8217;a promis mercredi, mais ce meilleur onze reste amput\u00e9 de neuf hommes. Riemer le dit lui-m\u00eame : le Portugal, c&#8217;est du tr\u00e8s haut niveau \u00e0 chaque poste ; Ronaldo, sur le banc pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois de suite, n&#8217;y change rien. La double chance \u00e0 1,33 ne paie plus rien ; le vainqueur sec paie. Ma probabilit\u00e9, m\u00eal\u00e9e \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9, donne la mise : 0,75 unit\u00e9, 75 $.<\/p>\n<p>Le danger, c&#8217;est le nul \u00e0 3,90 : un Parken debout, un bloc danois regroup\u00e9 bas, un Portugal qui g\u00e8re son avance au classement. Il tient si le Portugal garde le ballon et des solutions au banc, comme \u00e0 Oslo.<\/p>\n<p>Pour transformer votre propre probabilit\u00e9 en mise, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> fait le calcul ; mes r\u00e9sultats, gagn\u00e9s et perdus, sont sur le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. 18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le Portugal gagne l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il avait perdu : 4-2<\/h2>\n<p>Le Portugal s&#8217;impose 4-2 au Parken, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 il avait perdu 1-0 en mars 2025, et prend seul la t\u00eate du groupe D, neuf points sur neuf. Le Danemark a align\u00e9 son meilleur onze, comme Riemer l&#8217;avait promis ; amput\u00e9 de neuf joueurs, il a encaiss\u00e9 quatre buts devant son public. L&#8217;h\u00e9catombe danoise \u00e9tait dans le prix avant le match, elle a fini dans le score.<\/p>\n<p>Mon pari, victoire du Portugal en 90 minutes \u00e0 2,15 chez Bwin ES, gagne : 0,75 unit\u00e9, 75 $ engag\u00e9s, 86,25 $ de gain. Je donnais 50 % au Portugal l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la cote en promettait 46,5 : l&#8217;\u00e9cart \u00e9tait mince, il a suffi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le Portugal gagne 4-2 au Parken et prend seul la t\u00eate du groupe D : mon pari victoire \u00e0 2,15 chez Bwin ES gagne, 86,25 $ de gain pour 0,75 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3646,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Danemark \u2013 Portugal : pronostic Ligue des nations. 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