{"id":2688,"date":"2026-09-30T12:13:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T10:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/irlande-autriche-pronostic-2026-10-01\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T23:16:42","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:16:42","slug":"irlande-autriche-pronostic-2026-10-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/irlande-autriche-pronostic-2026-10-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Irlande &#8211; Autriche : quelle Autriche se pr\u00e9sentera \u00e0 l&#8217;Aviva ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Six points, la premi\u00e8re place, deux victoires construites \u00e0 domicile : l&#8217;Autriche a ouvert sa fen\u00eatre sans trembler. L&#8217;Irlande est all\u00e9e chercher trois points en deux d\u00e9placements et joue jeudi son premier match \u00e0 l&#8217;Aviva. Sur le classement, l&#8217;\u00e9cart est net ; sur les feuilles m\u00e9dicales et le carnet disciplinaire, il se referme de jour en jour.<\/p>\n<h2>L&#8217;axe autrichien se recompose sans Danso<\/h2>\n<p>La nouvelle du jour p\u00e8se : Kevin Danso, patron de la d\u00e9fense autrichienne, est suspendu \u00e0 Dublin apr\u00e8s un deuxi\u00e8me avertissement du groupe, pris contre le Kosovo (<a href=\"https:\/\/sport.orf.at\/stories\/3162880\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ORF<\/a>). Baumgartner manque \u00e9galement le d\u00e9placement, sans qu&#8217;une blessure soit confirm\u00e9e. Dans l&#8217;axe, la presse citait Bacher et Friedl ; la feuille de match en d\u00e9cide autrement : Lienhart et Affengruber d\u00e9marrent, devant Wiegele, avec Kalajdzic en pointe.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Wanner (plante du pied gauche) et Veratschnig (genou droit) : l\u00e9sions confirm\u00e9es par IRM, rentr\u00e9s dans leurs clubs.<\/li>\n<li>Horvath : l&#8217;examen de la cuisse n&#8217;a rien r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 de structurel, mais il n&#8217;est pas du onze de d\u00e9part.<\/li>\n<li>Laimer : de retour \u00e0 l&#8217;entra\u00eenement collectif lundi, disponible, mais pas titulaire \u00e0 Dublin ; la presse le projetait capitaine (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.oe24.at\/a\/kapitaen-laimer-vor-irland-hit-zurueck-im-training-900119028\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">oe24<\/a>).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Le staff autrichien dit remplacer ses cadres \u00ab en \u00e9quipe \u00bb, pas un par un.<\/p>\n<h2>Bazunu revient, l&#8217;Aviva guette<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00f4t\u00e9 irlandais, le groupe s&#8217;\u00e9toffe au lieu de se r\u00e9duire : Gavin Bazunu, retir\u00e9 avant le d\u00e9placement en Isra\u00ebl pour raisons personnelles, est de retour pour l&#8217;Autriche, et Hallgr\u00edmsson fait l&#8217;\u00e9loge de Finn Azaz, rest\u00e9 en s\u00e9lection. Le onze irlandais donne Kelleher dans les buts et Azaz titulaire ; Bazunu regarde. Bosun Lawal a rejoint le rassemblement sans \u00eatre apte pour jeudi, et le gardien de Luton Josh Keeley porte le nombre de portiers \u00e0 quatre (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishnews.com\/sport\/soccer\/ireland-boss-blasts-lies-told-about-his-squad-and-praises-finn-azaz-as-israel-objector-bazunu-returns-for-austria-clash-DCGZGCCUFVB7XHDS7TFYQGWRXQ\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Irish News<\/a>). Collins, le capitaine, reste forfait pour tout le rassemblement, avec Coleman, Taylor, Johnston, Ferguson, McGrat et Cullen.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;ambiance ne se r\u00e8gle pas sur une feuille de match. Hallgr\u00edmsson d\u00e9nonce \u00ab a lot of lies \u00bb sur son groupe, affiche un \u00ab mood is good \u00bb et voit en l&#8217;Autriche \u00ab the highest-ranked team in the group \u00bb ; ses joueurs n&#8217;ont rien dit \u00e0 la presse depuis le vote suivi du match en Isra\u00ebl. Le rendez-vous sert de test pour l&#8217;Euro 2028, premi\u00e8res rang\u00e9es des tribunes ferm\u00e9es (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/sport\/soccer\/2026\/09\/29\/long-week-ahead-as-ireland-players-brace-for-emotional-fan-reaction-at-aviva-stadium\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Irish Times<\/a>). Sur les deux derni\u00e8res confrontations, l&#8217;Irlande tient la route : 1-1 \u00e0 Dublin en 2017, victoire 1-0 \u00e0 Vienne en 2016, en \u00e9liminatoires du Mondial.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>\u00c9quipe<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Irlande<\/td>\n<td>Isra\u00ebl (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Irlande<\/td>\n<td>Kosovo (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Autriche<\/td>\n<td>Kosovo (domicile)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>3-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Autriche<\/td>\n<td>Isra\u00ebl (domicile)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>3-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>02\/07<\/td>\n<td>Autriche<\/td>\n<td>Espagne (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\n<td>Coupe du monde<\/td>\n<td>0-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>28\/06<\/td>\n<td>Autriche<\/td>\n<td>Alg\u00e9rie (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\n<td>Coupe du monde<\/td>\n<td>3-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Le march\u00e9 a gliss\u00e9 vers peu de buts<\/h2>\n<p>Au relev\u00e9 de mercredi : Autriche 2,21, Irlande 3,60, nul 3,30. Le mouvement de la semaine s&#8217;est fait sur le total : moins de 2,25 buts est pass\u00e9 de 2,08 \u00e0 1,85. Sur le handicap principal, l&#8217;Irlande +0,25 vaut toujours 2,00 chez Bet365, l&#8217;Autriche -0,25 1,80.<\/p>\n<h2>Irlande +0,25 : le nul rapporte la moiti\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>La ligne coupe la mise en deux : moiti\u00e9 sur Irlande 0, moiti\u00e9 sur Irlande +0,5. Victoire irlandaise : pari gagn\u00e9, 25 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s. Match nul : gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 moiti\u00e9, la moiti\u00e9 de la mise pay\u00e9e \u00e0 2,00, l&#8217;autre rembours\u00e9e, 12,50 $. Victoire autrichienne : perdu.<\/p>\n<p>Je vois la couverture \u00e0 50 %, le march\u00e9 la chiffre \u00e0 47,4 %. Une fois les deux lectures rapproch\u00e9es, l&#8217;avantage dispara\u00eet : le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match, et la veille ne me fait pas changer d&#8217;avis. La suspension de Danso et le retour de Bazunu penchent du m\u00eame c\u00f4t\u00e9 que mon pari, sans le transformer en valeur : mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9 (25 $). Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> d\u00e9taille les mises en unit\u00e9s, ce pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Un nul \u00e0 Dublin, comme en 2017 : 2-2<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;Irlande et l&#8217;Autriche se quittent 2-2 \u00e0 l&#8217;Aviva, comme ce 1-1 de 2017 au m\u00eame stade. L&#8217;Autriche laisse \u00e9chapper ses premiers points de la fen\u00eatre et garde la t\u00eate du groupe (7), devant l&#8217;Irlande et le Kosovo (4). Pour son premier match \u00e0 domicile, l&#8217;Irlande tient le leader.<\/p>\n<p>Mon pari Irlande +0,25 \u00e0 2,00 chez Bet365 gagne \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 : le nul paie la moiti\u00e9 de la mise \u00e0 2,00 et rembourse l&#8217;autre, 12,50 $ de gain sur 25 $ engag\u00e9s. Le march\u00e9 avait lu ce match aussi bien que moi ; la mise minimale le disait avant le coup d&#8217;envoi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nul 2-2 entre l&#8217;Irlande et l&#8217;Autriche \u00e0 l&#8217;Aviva, comme en 2017 : mon pari Irlande +0,25 \u00e0 2,00 chez Bet365 gagne \u00e0 moiti\u00e9, 12,50 $ de gain sur 25 $ engag\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3661,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Irlande &#8211; Autriche, Ligue des nations : mon pronostic Irlande +0,25 \u00e0 2,00. Autriche leader mais diminu\u00e9e, Aviva sous tension : mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Irlande","ba_away_name":"Autriche","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-01 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Aviva Stadium","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528921","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pbmswpnmsjm","author_id":4,"market":"Handicap asiatique","selection":"Irlande +0,25","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"home","line":0.25,"odds":2,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":25,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"half_won","recorded_at":"2026-09-30 10:14:23","settled_at":"2026-10-01 20:45:04","probability":0.5,"p_market":0.4737,"p_used":0.4869,"edge":-0.0263,"market_margin":0.0556,"market_books":1,"closing_odds":1.95,"p_close":0.4868,"clv":-0.0264,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-2688","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Irlande &#8211; Autriche : quelle Autriche se pr\u00e9sentera \u00e0 l&#8217;Aviva ? &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Irlande &#8211; Autriche, Ligue des nations : mon pronostic Irlande +0,25 \u00e0 2,00. 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