{"id":2746,"date":"2026-09-30T14:42:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T12:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/grece-pays-bas-pronostic-2026-10-01\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T23:17:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:17:59","slug":"grece-pays-bas-pronostic-2026-10-01","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/grece-pays-bas-pronostic-2026-10-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Gr\u00e8ce &#8211; Pays-Bas : la Gr\u00e8ce en t\u00eate, les Pays-Bas favoris \u00e0 Thessalonique"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le stade Toumba a affich\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/athina984.gr\/2026\/09\/28\/sold-out-mesa-se-liges-ores-oi-agones-tis-elladas-me-ollandia-kai-germania\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">complet en moins de quatre heures<\/a> pour la venue des Pays-Bas, comme pour celle de l&#8217;Allemagne dimanche. La Gr\u00e8ce n&#8217;a encore rien l\u00e2ch\u00e9 dans cette Ligue des nations : six points, deux victoires \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur. Le march\u00e9 garde pourtant les N\u00e9erlandais favoris, et je vois ce match de l&#8217;autre c\u00f4t\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h2>Deux victoires \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur changent une \u00e9quipe<\/h2>\n<p>La Gr\u00e8ce a gagn\u00e9 2-1 en Serbie puis 1-0 en Allemagne, et Kourbelis a marqu\u00e9 le but de la victoire face aux Allemands. Ces deux matchs disent la m\u00eame chose : un bloc qui tient 90 minutes, ensemble. Cette Gr\u00e8ce de Jovanovic vit de son organisation, et elle joue ce match devant les siens, avec six jours et deux d\u00e9placements dans les jambes : repos lundi, reprise mardi soir, des changements limit\u00e9s pour g\u00e9rer la fatigue.<\/p>\n<h2>Une premi\u00e8re liste sans Depay ni Weghorst<\/h2>\n<p>Pour sa premi\u00e8re s\u00e9lection, Xavi Hern\u00e1ndez s&#8217;est pass\u00e9 de Depay, Weghorst, De Roon et De Vrij. Les autres forfaits sont tomb\u00e9s pendant la fen\u00eatre : Gakpo, bless\u00e9 \u00e0 la cheville en Serbie, Brobbey et Geertruida, apr\u00e8s Kluivert et Malen. En pointe, Meerdink, titularis\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois en Serbie, y a marqu\u00e9 les deux buts de la victoire.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.soccernews.nl\/news\/vermoedelijke-opstelling-oranje-tegen-griekenland-xavi-wisselt-tweetal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Le onze probable de mercredi<\/a> donne bien \u00e0 Van Bommel sa premi\u00e8re titularisation, avec Summerville \u00e0 droite et Veerman au milieu ; Gravenberch, lui, reste dehors : Til et Quinten Timber d\u00e9marrent. Van Dijk, Van Hecke et les deux Timber sont \u00e0 une carte d&#8217;une suspension.<\/p>\n<h2>Qui manque, qui revient<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Vagiannidis (Gr\u00e8ce) : forfait d\u00e9finitif ; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.skai.gr\/news\/sports\/ethniki-elladas-ektos-o-vagiannidis-me-ollandia-gia-to-nations-league\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Saliakas est favori au poste de lat\u00e9ral droit<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Rota, Giannoulis, Chatzidiakos (Gr\u00e8ce) : absents, cit\u00e9s par la presse grecque.<\/li>\n<li>Kostoulas (Gr\u00e8ce) : de nouveau disponible, mais ni lui ni Tetteh ne d\u00e9marrent : Pavlidis et Ioannidis forment la paire d&#8217;attaque.<\/li>\n<li>Van Hecke (Pays-Bas) : <a href=\"https:\/\/sportnieuws.nl\/nederlands-voetbal\/nieuws\/opvallende-afwezige-bij-training-oranje-basisspeler-haakt-al-vroeg-af-2026093010141448164\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sorti de la s\u00e9ance de mercredi au bout d&#8217;un quart d&#8217;heure<\/a> ; la feuille officielle le confirme absent, et Jurri\u00ebn Timber prend bien sa place, aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de van Dijk et van de Ven.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>L&#8217;absence de Vagiannidis se g\u00e8re : Saliakas d\u00e9marre comme pr\u00e9vu, et ce bloc a d\u00e9j\u00e0 gagn\u00e9 deux fois loin de ses bases. La d\u00e9fense n\u00e9erlandaise s&#8217;est fragilis\u00e9e cette semaine, et Timber n&#8217;a que dix minutes en Serbie dans les jambes.<\/p>\n<h2>Ce que racontent les cinq derniers matchs<\/h2>\n<p>La Gr\u00e8ce sort d&#8217;une fen\u00eatre parfaite, les Pays-Bas d&#8217;une Coupe du monde et de deux r\u00e9sultats serr\u00e9s.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>\u00c9quipe<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Gr\u00e8ce<\/td>\n<td>Allemagne<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Gr\u00e8ce<\/td>\n<td>Serbie<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>07\/06<\/td>\n<td>Gr\u00e8ce<\/td>\n<td>Italie<\/td>\n<td>Amical<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/06<\/td>\n<td>Gr\u00e8ce<\/td>\n<td>Su\u00e8de<\/td>\n<td>Amical<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>31\/03<\/td>\n<td>Gr\u00e8ce<\/td>\n<td>Hongrie<\/td>\n<td>Amical<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>Serbie<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>Allemagne<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>30\/06<\/td>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>Maroc<\/td>\n<td>Coupe du monde<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>25\/06<\/td>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>Tunisie<\/td>\n<td>Coupe du monde<\/td>\n<td>3-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>20\/06<\/td>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>Su\u00e8de<\/td>\n<td>Coupe du monde<\/td>\n<td>5-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Le march\u00e9 reste sur les Pays-Bas<\/h2>\n<p>Les Pays-Bas valent 2,17 chez 10BET, la Gr\u00e8ce 3,45 chez Betano au relev\u00e9 du 30 septembre, contre 4,02 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture : le march\u00e9 int\u00e8gre la fen\u00eatre grecque sans renverser son favori. L&#8217;histoire l&#8217;encourage : neuf victoires n\u00e9erlandaises sur onze confrontations, dont un 0-1 en Gr\u00e8ce en 2023.<\/p>\n<h2>Je prends la Gr\u00e8ce ou le nul \u00e0 1,80<\/h2>\n<p>Je donne 61 % de chances \u00e0 la Gr\u00e8ce de ne pas perdre ; \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365, le march\u00e9 en donne 55,6. L&#8217;\u00e9cart est net : 1,25 unit\u00e9, soit 125 $. La Gr\u00e8ce gagne ou accroche le nul, le pari rapporte 100 $ ; les Pays-Bas gagnent, il en co\u00fbte 125 $. La mise suit le quart de <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">Kelly<\/a> et le pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Rien depuis mardi ne renforce les Pays-Bas, et le 1X vaut toujours 1,80, le prix auquel le pari a \u00e9t\u00e9 pris. Le sc\u00e9nario gagnant : la Gr\u00e8ce tient son bloc, exploite une attaque n\u00e9erlandaise recompos\u00e9e et un Toumba qui pousse. Le sc\u00e9nario perdant : le collectif oranje garde assez de qualit\u00e9 entre les lignes pour d\u00e9cider d&#8217;une action.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le Toumba ne rend rien : 2-2<\/h2>\n<p>Gr\u00e8ce et Pays-Bas se quittent 2-2 au Toumba. La Gr\u00e8ce reste invaincue, sept points, en t\u00eate du groupe B ; les Pays-Bas (5) n&#8217;ont pas gagn\u00e9 l\u00e0 o\u00f9 ils avaient gagn\u00e9 0-1 en 2023. Le sc\u00e9nario que je prenais : un bloc grec qui tient, une attaque n\u00e9erlandaise recompos\u00e9e qui marque sans d\u00e9cider.<\/p>\n<p>Mon pari Gr\u00e8ce ou nul \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365 gagne : 1,25 unit\u00e9, 125 $ engag\u00e9s, 100 $ de gain. Je donnais 61 % \u00e0 la Gr\u00e8ce de ne pas perdre l\u00e0 o\u00f9 le march\u00e9 en promettait 55,6 : l&#8217;\u00e9cart \u00e9tait net, la mise l&#8217;a suivi, et le nul a suffi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Gr\u00e8ce accroche les Pays-Bas 2-2 au Toumba et reste en t\u00eate du groupe B : mon pari Gr\u00e8ce ou nul \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365 gagne, 100 $ de gain pour 1,25 unit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":3671,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Gr\u00e8ce \u2013 Pays-Bas : mon pronostic Gr\u00e8ce ou nul \u00e0 1,80 \u00e0 Toumba, face \u00e0 des Pays-Bas favoris mais priv\u00e9s de leurs attaquants. Mise de 1,25 unit\u00e9.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Gr\u00e8ce","ba_away_name":"Pays-Bas","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-01 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Toumba Stadium","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528918","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pqowwgjjbqa","author_id":4,"market":"Double chance","selection":"Gr\u00e8ce ou nul","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"dc","selection_key":"1x","line":null,"odds":1.8,"stake_units":1.25,"stake_amount":125,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":100,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-09-30 12:44:49","settled_at":"2026-10-01 20:45:04","probability":0.61,"p_market":0.5445,"p_used":0.5773,"edge":0.0391,"market_margin":0.0635,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":1.711,"p_close":0.57,"clv":0.026,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-2746","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gr\u00e8ce &#8211; Pays-Bas : la Gr\u00e8ce en t\u00eate, les Pays-Bas favoris \u00e0 Thessalonique &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Gr\u00e8ce \u2013 Pays-Bas : mon pronostic Gr\u00e8ce ou nul \u00e0 1,80 \u00e0 Toumba, face \u00e0 des Pays-Bas favoris mais priv\u00e9s de leurs attaquants. 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