{"id":2996,"date":"2026-09-30T17:42:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T15:42:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-pronostic-2026-10-03\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:09:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T17:09:55","slug":"aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-pronostic-2026-10-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/aviron-bayonnais-stade-francais-paris-pronostic-2026-10-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Handicap \u00e0 Jean Dauger : Bayonne a la forme, le Stade Fran\u00e7ais n&#8217;a pas de victoire \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Quatre journ\u00e9es, trois victoires, treize points : l&#8217;Aviron est quatri\u00e8me et re\u00e7oit samedi le Stade Fran\u00e7ais \u00e0 Jean Dauger, avec Vincent Blasco Baque au sifflet. Paris n&#8217;a pas encore gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur. Le vrai match est le handicap.<\/p>\n<h2>Coly reprend la m\u00eal\u00e9e, Tuilagi garde le brassard<\/h2>\n<p>Sorti d\u00e8s la premi\u00e8re journ\u00e9e contre Toulon, touch\u00e9 aux ischio-jambiers, Coly revient : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sudouest.fr\/sport\/rugby\/aviron-bayonnais\/aviron-bayonnais-leo-coly-de-retour-comme-titulaire-manu-tuilagi-capitaine-face-au-stade-francais-30848848.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sud Ouest<\/a> et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ici.fr\/nouvelle-aquitaine\/pyrenees-atlantiques-64\/bayonne\/aviron-bayonnais-leo-coly-de-retour-contre-le-stade-francais-la-compo-probable-4496104\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ICI publient la m\u00eame \u00e9quipe probable<\/a>, la charni\u00e8re Coly-Segonds, Tuilagi capitaine et Fischer de retour en troisi\u00e8me ligne. Les <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/feuille-de-match\/2026-2027\/j5\/11847-bayonne-paris\/compositions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">compositions officielles<\/a> ne sont toujours pas publi\u00e9es : je lis cette \u00e9quipe comme une probable, pas comme une affich\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tilloles, alert\u00e9 \u00e0 la cuisse gauche mardi, est pressenti sur le banc ;<\/li>\n<li>Jantjies est bien rentr\u00e9 d&#8217;Afrique du Sud, vol annul\u00e9 la veille et escale \u00e0 Paris, mais il est seulement venu saluer le groupe en civil : pas de premi\u00e8res minutes annonc\u00e9es, il n&#8217;est pas sur le banc probable ;<\/li>\n<li>infirmerie inchang\u00e9e : Orab\u00e9 purge sa suspension, Leota (genou) manque deux \u00e0 trois semaines, Castillon, Iturria, Cormenier et Alainu&#8217;uese restent sur le flanc ;<\/li>\n<li>Iturria, Cormenier et Alainu&#8217;uese sont esp\u00e9r\u00e9s pour les Cheetahs le 18\/10, Erbinartegaray (commotion) doit reprendre l&#8217;entra\u00eenement lundi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Un Paris qui ne tient pas ses d\u00e9placements<\/h2>\n<p>Huiti\u00e8me avec neuf points, le Stade Fran\u00e7ais a battu Perpignan et Lyon \u00e0 domicile, perdu \u00e0 Clermont et \u00e0 Bordeaux. Vingt et un points marqu\u00e9s par match, trente pour l&#8217;Aviron. Le club garde le souvenir du 35-34 conc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 Jean-Dauger le 27 d\u00e9cembre : Hirigoyen, Delbouis et Kockott parlent de revanche.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.minutesports.fr\/2026\/09\/29\/stade-francais-paul-gustard-a-tranche-pour-son-avenir\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul Gustard, prolong\u00e9 jusqu&#8217;en 2029<\/a>, compose sans Monin, Koffi, Briatte (\u00e9paule, pas avant novembre), Alo-Emile (\u00ab pas encore pr\u00eat \u00bb), McLean, Dakuwaqa, Abadie, Lodjro et Duguivalu. Le dossier Macalou reste flou : retraite annonc\u00e9e puis d\u00e9mentie, op\u00e9ration lourde \u00e9voqu\u00e9e, rien d&#8217;officialis\u00e9 par le club. Il ne joue pas samedi.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">\u00c9quipe<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Adversaire<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Lieu<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Toulon<\/td>\n<td>Domicile<\/td>\n<td>27-26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Clermont<\/td>\n<td>Domicile<\/td>\n<td>46-24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Pau<\/td>\n<td>Ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>28-70<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Aviron Bayonnais<\/td>\n<td>Racing 92<\/td>\n<td>Ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>20-17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>Domicile<\/td>\n<td>28-26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Lyon<\/td>\n<td>Domicile<\/td>\n<td>31-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Clermont<\/td>\n<td>Ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>16-25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<td>Bordeaux B\u00e8gles<\/td>\n<td>Ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>10-40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,90, l&#8217;Aviron moins sept points et demi<\/h2>\n<p>Le vainqueur se lit d\u00e9j\u00e0 : 1,34 chez Betano vendredi pour l&#8217;Aviron, rentr\u00e9 depuis l&#8217;ouverture (1,38). \u00c0 ce prix, rien \u00e0 prendre. Je passe au handicap principal, Bayonne \u22127,5 \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, une ligne qui n&#8217;a pas boug\u00e9 ; c&#8217;est Paris +7,5 qui est rentr\u00e9, de 1,91 \u00e0 1,85. Deux des trois victoires bayonnaises se sont jou\u00e9es \u00e0 un point et \u00e0 trois : le march\u00e9 le sait, et moi aussi. Je donne 51 % \u00e0 Bayonne passant les huit points d&#8217;\u00e9cart ; la cote en promet 53. Sans avantage net : mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9 (25 $), au quart de <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">Kelly<\/a>. Bayonne gagne de huit points ou plus : +22,50 $. Il gagne de sept ou moins, il y a nul ou Paris s&#8217;impose : \u221225 $.<\/p>\n<p>Ce pronostic rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, quel qu&#8217;en soit le r\u00e9sultat. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Trois points d&#8217;\u00e9cart, encore<\/h2>\n<p>Bayonne a battu le Stade Fran\u00e7ais 35-32. Trois points d&#8217;\u00e9cart, comme la victoire \u00e0 Cr\u00e9teil sur le Racing 92 la semaine d&#8217;avant : le sc\u00e9nario que le march\u00e9 connaissait est revenu, et c&#8217;est lui qui a fait tomber le pari. La victoire bayonnaise se voyait de loin ; les huit points d&#8217;\u00e9cart, jamais.<\/p>\n<p>Bayonne \u22127,5 points \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet est perdu : 25 $ de mise minimale. J&#8217;\u00e9crivais que cette ligne me laissait sans avantage net ; la mise \u00e9tait \u00e0 la mesure de ce pronostic, et le score final lui donne raison.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bayonne a battu le Stade Fran\u00e7ais 35-32, par trois points : mon pari Bayonne \u22127,5 points \u00e0 1,90 est perdu, 25 $ de mise minimale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4406,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Aviron Bayonnais et Stade Fran\u00e7ais en Top 14 \u00e0 Jean Dauger : analyse et cotes. Je prends Bayonne \u22127,5 points \u00e0 1,90 chez 1xbet, mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Aviron Bayonnais","ba_away_name":"Stade Fran\u00e7ais Paris","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-03 14:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54109","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"ptwrpcufalm","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Aviron Bayonnais \u22127,5 points","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"home","line":-7.5,"odds":1.9,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":22.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"lost","recorded_at":"2026-09-30 15:43:33","settled_at":"2026-10-03 16:45:06","probability":0.51,"p_market":0.491,"p_used":0.5005,"edge":-0.0491,"market_margin":0.0811,"market_books":3,"closing_odds":1.85,"p_close":0.5,"clv":-0.05,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-2996","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Handicap \u00e0 Jean Dauger : Bayonne a la forme, le Stade Fran\u00e7ais n&#8217;a pas de victoire \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Aviron Bayonnais et Stade Fran\u00e7ais en Top 14 \u00e0 Jean Dauger : analyse et cotes. 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