{"id":3035,"date":"2026-09-30T18:08:29","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:08:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/deux-defaites-treize-absents-la-rochelle-reste-a-120-face-a-clermont\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T19:10:52","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T17:10:52","slug":"stade-rochelais-clermont-pronostic-2026-10-03","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/stade-rochelais-clermont-pronostic-2026-10-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Deux d\u00e9faites, treize absents : La Rochelle reste \u00e0 1,19 face \u00e0 Clermont"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>M\u00eame bilan de deux victoires et deux d\u00e9faites de chaque c\u00f4t\u00e9, et un classement invers\u00e9 : Clermont sixi\u00e8me, La Rochelle onzi\u00e8me. \u00c0 Deflandre samedi, c&#8217;est pourtant La Rochelle qu&#8217;on trouve \u00e0 1,19 vendredi chez Betano, un prix qui n&#8217;a cess\u00e9 de durcir depuis l&#8217;ouverture \u00e0 1,25 ; il \u00e9tait \u00e0 1,20 quand j&#8217;ai \u00e9crit ces lignes. Clermont n&#8217;a pas gagn\u00e9 un match hors du Michelin, deux d\u00e9placements, deux d\u00e9faites. Le march\u00e9 a tranch\u00e9 pour le terrain. Il me semble surtout avoir mis un prix fort sur une \u00e9quipe qui vient de perdre deux fois de suite.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont publie ses bless\u00e9s, La Rochelle laisse courir les listes<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 quatre jours du match, La Rochelle a ouvert une s\u00e9ance d&#8217;entra\u00eenement au public \u00e0 Deflandre. Ce qui frappe, c&#8217;est la liste \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 : Latu suspendu, et douze bless\u00e9s annonc\u00e9s, de Danty \u00e0 Skelton en passant par Moerat et Bourgarit.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Latu, suspendu ;<\/li>\n<li>Danty, Skelton, Kriel, Moerat, Berjon, Lagivala, Moala, Tuifua, Fraissenon, Bourgarit, Seuteni et Loustalot, bless\u00e9s ;<\/li>\n<li>toutes ces absences circulent sans communiqu\u00e9 du club.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Clermont est plus transparent : Kremer suspendu quatre semaines, Ojovan, Tolofua, Ratuva et Muarua \u00e0 l&#8217;infirmerie, AJ Lam en reprise. C&#8217;est le club qui le dit, dans son point m\u00e9dical du 25 septembre, avant de recevoir Castres. Vendredi, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lamontagne.fr\/clermont-ferrand-63000\/sports\/asm-clermont-un-cadre-du-paquet-d-avants-forfait-pour-le-deplacement-a-la-rochelle_15056796\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La Montagne annonce en un titre le forfait d&#8217;un cadre du paquet d&#8217;avants<\/a> pour ce d\u00e9placement, sans le nommer ; l&#8217;ASM n&#8217;a rien confirm\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Les <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/feuille-de-match\/2026-2027\/j5\/11851-la-rochelle-clermont\/compositions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">compositions officielles<\/a> ne sont toujours pas publi\u00e9es \u00e0 la veille du match ; Jonathan Gasnier aura le sifflet, et le club rochelais a annonc\u00e9 un <a href=\"https:\/\/www.staderochelais.com\/actualites\/news\/au-complet-pour-clermont-le-point-sur-les-anim\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Deflandre complet<\/a> pour la venue de Clermont.<\/p>\n<h2>Clermont marque quatre essais par match, mais seulement au Michelin<\/h2>\n<p>Dans le jeu, Clermont est la formation la plus prolifique : 26 points et quatre essais de moyenne, contre 20 points et deux essais pour La Rochelle. Mais les deux sorties clermontoises se sont sold\u00e9es par des revers, de quatre points \u00e0 Lyon et de vingt-deux \u00e0 Bayonne. Le Michelin p\u00e8se : neuf points sur dix pris \u00e0 la maison, aucun \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur.<\/p>\n<p>La Rochelle vit l&#8217;inverse : victoire contre Toulouse (30-27), victoire \u00e0 Toulon (21-20), puis l&#8217;effondrement, 10-20 contre le Racing 92 \u00e0 domicile et 17-39 \u00e0 Pau samedi, une correction.<\/p>\n<p>Deux Rochelais tiennent la barque : Tixeront, meilleur voleur de ballons du Top 14 avec huit ballons gratt\u00e9s, et Darricarr\u00e8re. Dans un match o\u00f9 La Rochelle reste favorite, ce sont eux qui feront la conqu\u00eate.<\/p>\n<p>Les quatre premi\u00e8res journ\u00e9es, c\u00f4te \u00e0 c\u00f4te :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Journ\u00e9e<\/th>\n<th>Stade Rochelais<\/th>\n<th>Clermont<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>J1<\/td>\n<td>victoire 30-27 sur Toulouse<\/td>\n<td>battu 36-40 \u00e0 Lyon<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J2<\/td>\n<td>victoire 21-20 \u00e0 Toulon<\/td>\n<td>victoire 25-16 sur le Stade Fran\u00e7ais<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J3<\/td>\n<td>battu 10-20 par le Racing 92<\/td>\n<td>battu 24-46 \u00e0 Bayonne<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J4<\/td>\n<td>battu 17-39 \u00e0 Pau<\/td>\n<td>victoire 20-6 sur Castres<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 20 points de moyenne, on ne gagne pas de douze points<\/h2>\n<p>Les derniers face-\u00e0-face ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tranch\u00e9s : Clermont 32-27 en janvier, La Rochelle 34-16 en septembre 2025, Clermont 33-19 en mars, La Rochelle 20-15 en d\u00e9cembre 2024. Deux fois sur quatre, l&#8217;\u00e9cart a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 onze points. C&#8217;est le vrai d\u00e9bat de ce pari : La Rochelle, \u00e0 20 points de moyenne, doit en marquer 33 pour couvrir une victoire bonifi\u00e9e. Une \u00e9quipe qui vient d&#8217;en prendre 39 \u00e0 Pau, avec l&#8217;infirmerie pleine, n&#8217;est pas lanc\u00e9e dans ce festival.<\/p>\n<p>La ligne principale est \u00e0 11,5 points : Clermont +11,5 \u00e0 1,85 chez Unibet, et un handicap rochelais qui a durci, de 2,00 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture \u00e0 1,90 vendredi chez 1xbet. Le march\u00e9 voit un score serr\u00e9 dans un match contr\u00f4l\u00e9 par La Rochelle. Moi aussi, et je prends la protection.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Clermont avec onze points et demi d&#8217;avance<\/h2>\n<p>Je prends Clermont +11,5 points \u00e0 1,85 chez Unibet. Gagn\u00e9 si l&#8217;ASM gagne, fait nul ou perd de onze points ou moins ; perdu si elle perd de douze points ou plus. Je donne 58 % de chances \u00e0 ce pari, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 le march\u00e9 en implique \u00e0 peine plus d&#8217;une sur deux. L&#8217;\u00e9cart est net mais mince, et la mise le dit : 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $, pour 21,25 $ de gain potentiel. Pour refaire le calcul, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> donne la m\u00eame mise.<\/p>\n<p>Ce pari, gagnant ou perdant, rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Deflandre n&#8217;a laiss\u00e9 aucune protection<\/h2>\n<p>La Rochelle a battu Clermont 38-13. Vingt-cinq points d&#8217;\u00e9cart : les onze points et demi de protection n&#8217;ont jamais tenu. J&#8217;attendais un match contr\u00f4l\u00e9 sur un prix de favori \u00e0 1,19 ; Deflandre a vu autre chose.<\/p>\n<p>J&#8217;avais \u00e9crit qu&#8217;\u00e0 20 points de moyenne, La Rochelle n&#8217;irait pas au-del\u00e0 du match serr\u00e9 : elle en a marqu\u00e9 38, avec l&#8217;infirmerie pleine annonc\u00e9e. Clermont, lui, reste sans victoire hors du Michelin. Clermont +11,5 points \u00e0 1,85 chez Unibet est perdu : 25 $ de mise minimale, et le handicap rochelais qui durcissait depuis l&#8217;ouverture avait vu ce match avant moi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Rochelle a battu Clermont 38-13, par vingt-cinq points : mon pari Clermont +11,5 points \u00e0 1,85 est perdu, 25 $ de mise minimale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4401,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"La Rochelle &#8211; Clermont, Top 14 : deux bilans identiques, treize absents rochelais. Pronostic du samedi : Clermont +11,5 points \u00e0 1,85 chez Unibet.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Stade Rochelais","ba_away_name":"Clermont","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-03 14:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54111","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pdjgpmlrpso","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap","selection":"Clermont +11,5 points","bookmaker":"Unibet","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":11.5,"odds":1.85,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":21.25,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"lost","recorded_at":"2026-09-30 16:09:37","settled_at":"2026-10-03 16:30:07","probability":0.58,"p_market":0.509,"p_used":0.5445,"edge":0.0073,"market_margin":0.0811,"market_books":3,"closing_odds":2.25,"p_close":0.4297,"clv":-0.2051,"stake_rule":"min"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-3035","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Deux d\u00e9faites, treize absents : La Rochelle reste \u00e0 1,19 face \u00e0 Clermont &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Rochelle &#8211; Clermont, Top 14 : deux bilans identiques, treize absents rochelais. 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