{"id":3054,"date":"2026-09-30T18:11:41","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:11:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/a-la-mosson-montpellier-favori-dun-toulon-qui-la-battu-cinq-fois-de-suite\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T00:06:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T22:06:13","slug":"montpellier-rc-toulonnais-pronostic-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/montpellier-rc-toulonnais-pronostic-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c0 la Mosson, Montpellier favori d&#8217;un Toulon qui l&#8217;a battu cinq fois de suite"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dimanche soir, le MHR joue \u00e0 la Mosson. La pelouse du Septeo Stadium a \u00e9t\u00e9 jug\u00e9e impraticable, des \u00ab facteurs pathog\u00e8nes \u00bb favoris\u00e9s par les canicules, et la LNR comme la m\u00e9tropole ont valid\u00e9 la d\u00e9localisation, la premi\u00e8re depuis quinze ans. Montpellier ne rejouera chez lui que le 31 octobre, contre Castres. En attendant, le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 tranch\u00e9 : Montpellier devant, et large.<\/p>\n<h2>Montpellier garde son cr\u00e9dit de finaliste<\/h2>\n<p>Sans son stade, le MHR garde sa forme : septi\u00e8me du Top 14, deux victoires, dont un 50-13 inflig\u00e9 \u00e0 Perpignan. Finaliste du dernier championnat, battu 20-28 par Toulouse en juin, le club a prolong\u00e9 son manager Joan Caudullo jusqu&#8217;en 2029 \u00e0 mi-septembre.<\/p>\n<p>Apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9faite 18-40 \u00e0 Toulouse, Caudullo a assum\u00e9 le score et point\u00e9 un trou physique entre la 40e et la 70e minute. C&#8217;est pile le moment o\u00f9 les bancs entrent en jeu, et le banc toulonnais n&#8217;est pas un banc comme les autres.<\/p>\n<p>Et un homme revient : Lenni Nouchi. Grave entorse \u00e0 la cheville gauche mi-juillet au Japon, deux mois et demi d&#8217;arr\u00eat, l&#8217;op\u00e9ration a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9vit\u00e9e. Vendredi, Caudullo a tranch\u00e9 : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbypass.com\/fr\/news\/montpellier-toulon-mosson-nouchi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00ab Lenni sera dans le groupe face \u00e0 Toulon. \u00bb<\/a> Sans doute sur le banc.<\/p>\n<h2>Toulon perd tout par petits \u00e9carts<\/h2>\n<p>Trois d\u00e9faites toulonnaises, pour un point, pour un point, pour deux points : 26-27 \u00e0 Bayonne, 20-21 contre La Rochelle, 27-29 \u00e0 Castres. Aucune victoire en deux d\u00e9placements, mais aucune d\u00e9b\u00e2cle non plus. Contre Vannes, le RCT a sauv\u00e9 sa premi\u00e8re victoire 28-10 avec un banc de cinq internationaux fran\u00e7ais : Gros, Rebbadj, Ollivon, Serin, Fickou. La premi\u00e8re mi-temps avait \u00e9t\u00e9 indigne, une dizaine d&#8217;en-avant et un bronca \u00e0 la pause ; Franck Az\u00e9ma parle d&#8217;une \u00e9quipe \u00ab en apprentissage \u00bb, pr\u00e9par\u00e9e \u00ab avec de la frustration et de la col\u00e8re \u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Et puis il y a l&#8217;histoire : Toulon a battu Montpellier cinq fois de suite, dont 27-17 \u00e0 Montpellier en septembre 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Le flou est lev\u00e9 : Toulon a publi\u00e9 vendredi son <a href=\"https:\/\/rctoulon.com\/infirmerie-le-point-sur-les-blesses-avant-montpellier-toulon-3\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">point m\u00e9dical<\/a>, et il confirme neuf des dix noms qui couraient depuis plusieurs jours. Le dixi\u00e8me, Tuicuvu, n&#8217;y figure pas : une compo probable de presse le donne titulaire, et rien du club ne l&#8217;\u00e9carte.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>forfait : Cancoriet (c\u00f4te) ;<\/li>\n<li>plusieurs semaines : Slimani (pouce fractur\u00e9 face \u00e0 Castres) ;<\/li>\n<li>bless\u00e9s : Frisch (mollet, depuis une semaine), Rebbadj (clavicule), Abadie (protocole commotion), Keletaona (musculaire) ;<\/li>\n<li>en r\u00e9tablissement : Gigashvili, Villi\u00e8re, Domon, Dr\u00e9an, Halagahu, Priso.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Le club a publi\u00e9 son <a href=\"https:\/\/rctoulon.com\/montpellier-toulon-top-14-j5-le-groupe-rouge-noir\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">groupe<\/a> vendredi, sa <a href=\"https:\/\/rctoulon.com\/montpellier-toulon-top-14-j5-la-composition-toulonnaise\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">composition<\/a> samedi, sous forme de visuels. Montpellier n&#8217;a rien publi\u00e9 pour la J5 : ni point m\u00e9dical, ni XV, et les neuf noms qui couraient c\u00f4t\u00e9 montpelli\u00e9rain, B\u00e9zy et Haouas compris, restent non confirm\u00e9s. Pierre Brousset sifflera dimanche, Julien Castaign\u00e8de \u00e0 la vid\u00e9o.<\/p>\n<p>Les quatre premi\u00e8res journ\u00e9es, c\u00f4te \u00e0 c\u00f4te :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Journ\u00e9e<\/th>\n<th>Montpellier<\/th>\n<th>RC Toulonnais<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>J1<\/td>\n<td>battu 19-27 par Pau<\/td>\n<td>battu 26-27 \u00e0 Bayonne<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J2<\/td>\n<td>vainqueur 26-12 \u00e0 Vannes<\/td>\n<td>battu 20-21 par La Rochelle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J3<\/td>\n<td>vainqueur 50-13 de Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>battu 27-29 \u00e0 Castres<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J4<\/td>\n<td>battu 18-40 \u00e0 Toulouse<\/td>\n<td>vainqueur 28-10 de Vannes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>La ligne glisse \u00e0 onze points et demi<\/h2>\n<p>La cote du MHR est pass\u00e9e de 1,25 \u00e0 1,19 depuis l&#8217;ouverture. La ligne principale a gliss\u00e9 de 12,5 \u00e0 11,5 points : le march\u00e9 voit Montpellier gagner, mais moins largement. Avec l&#8217;infirmerie toulonnaise qui s&#8217;allonge et le retour de Nouchi, je ne comprends pas ce mouvement.<\/p>\n<p>Le prix dit une domination montpelli\u00e9raine ; les donn\u00e9es disent autre chose : un Toulon qui n&#8217;a pas perdu un match de plus de deux points cette saison, et qui gagne cette affiche depuis cinq \u00e9ditions. Mon doute tenait aux absences toulonnaises : le point m\u00e9dical de vendredi les confirme, elles p\u00e8sent sur Toulon.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Toulon avec douze points et demi d&#8217;avance<\/h2>\n<p>Le pari est pris et il ne bouge plus : RC Toulonnais +12,5 points, pris \u00e0 1,85 chez Unibet ; la seule maison qui affiche encore cette ligne la cote 1,80 ce samedi. Un pari enregistr\u00e9 vit \u00e0 sa cote et \u00e0 sa mise d&#8217;origine : 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $, pour 21,25 $ de gain potentiel. Gagn\u00e9 si Toulon gagne, fait nul ou perd de douze points ou moins ; perdu si le RCT perd de treize points ou plus. Je donne 55 % de chances \u00e0 ce pari, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la cote en promet \u00e0 peine plus d&#8217;une sur deux. Mon avantage est nul sur le papier : le march\u00e9 a bien lu ce match, la mise est minimale, et le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> donne la m\u00eame mise de r\u00e9serve.<\/p>\n<p>Ce pari, gagnant ou perdant, rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>28-0 : Montpellier n&#8217;a rien l&#226;ch&#233;<\/h2>\n<p>Score final : 28-0. Montpellier gagne sans encaisser le moindre point, et la s&#233;rie de cinq victoires toulonnaises dans cette affiche s&#8217;arr&#234;te l&#224;. Le Toulon des petits &#233;carts, celui qui perdait d&#8217;un point, d&#8217;un point, de deux, n&#8217;est pas venu &#224; la Mosson : il a rendu vingt-huit points d&#8217;un coup, et le glissement de ligne que je n&#8217;avais pas compris avait vu juste avant moi.<\/p>\n<p>Mon pari tombe sans discussion : Toulon a perdu de 28, le +12,5 est d&#233;pass&#233; de loin, et les 25 $ de mise partent au bilan. J&#8217;avais lu un Toulon capable de rester dans le coup jusqu&#8217;au bout ; il n&#8217;a rien tenu. Le march&#233; avait fait glisser sa ligne vers 11,5 : c&#8217;est lui qui avait raison.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Montpellier a gagn&#233; 28-0 sans encaisser le moindre point : le pari Toulon +12,5 &#224; 1,85 chez Unibet est perdant, 25 $ partent au bilan. La s&#233;rie toulonnaise s&#8217;arr&#234;te et le march&#233; avait mieux lu que moi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":4912,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Montpellier &#8211; RC Toulonnais, Top 14 : match d\u00e9localis\u00e9 \u00e0 la Mosson. 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