{"id":3738,"date":"2026-10-01T23:33:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:33:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/portugal-norvege-pronostic-2026-10-04\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T23:06:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T21:06:56","slug":"portugal-norvege-pronostic-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/portugal-norvege-pronostic-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Portugal \u2013 Norv\u00e8ge : Jesus tourne au Drag\u00e3o, la Norv\u00e8ge encaisse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cristiano Ronaldo a quitt\u00e9 le stage portugais \u00e0 Copenhague pour Madrid, et la f\u00e9d\u00e9ration a r\u00e9pondu en une phrase : la pr\u00e9paration du match contre la Norv\u00e8ge continue avec les 24 joueurs restants. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.publico.pt\/2026\/10\/01\/desporto\/noticia\/pressa-tirarme-casos-ronaldo-queiroz-paulo-bento-fernando-santos-2189945\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">P\u00fablico<\/a> confirme ce que le vestiaire savait d\u00e9j\u00e0 : Jorge Jesus ne l\u2019avait pr\u00e9vu ni pour la Norv\u00e8ge ni pour le Danemark, et il n\u2019a pas jou\u00e9 une minute \u00e0 Ullevaal. L\u2019embrouille a occup\u00e9 les unes ; elle ne change rien \u00e0 l\u2019affiche du Drag\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p>Rien, parce que la lecture du match reste la m\u00eame : une \u00e9quipe \u00e0 neuf points sur neuf re\u00e7oit une s\u00e9lection qui vient de perdre deux fois de suite, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fpf.pt\/pt\/News\/Todas-as-not%C3%ADcias\/Not%C3%ADcia\/news\/58047\/contextid\/172\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">devant un Drag\u00e3o affich\u00e9 complet<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Un nul suffirait au Portugal pour les quarts de finale<\/h2>\n<p>Le s\u00e9lectionneur l\u2019avait dit le 30\/09 : trois ou quatre changements par match, parce que quatre matchs en onze jours ne se jouent pas avec le m\u00eame onze. Les rotations n\u2019ont pas cass\u00e9 l\u2019attaque : sept buts en trois sorties, un 1-0 contre le Pays de Galles, un 2-1 en Norv\u00e8ge, un 4-2 au Danemark jeudi. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.correiodamanhacanada.com\/liga-nacoes-portugal-treina-no-dragao-antes-do-duelo-com-a-noruega\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance a eu lieu samedi au Drag\u00e3o<\/a>, et un nul suffirait au Portugal pour valider sa place en quarts de finale. La feuille officielle confirme la rotation : Palhinha tient la sentinelle du 4-1-3-2, Bruno Fernandes \u00e9volue derri\u00e8re Gon\u00e7alo Ramos, et la Norv\u00e8ge aligne \u00d8degaard, Nusa et Schjelderup autour de Haaland.<\/p>\n<h3>\u00c0 surveiller dimanche<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Les coups de pied arr\u00eat\u00e9s offensifs, que Jesus disait ne pas avoir encore travaill\u00e9s ;<\/li>\n<li>La fra\u00eecheur de Concei\u00e7\u00e3o et Jo\u00e3o F\u00e9lix : l\u2019un a manqu\u00e9 le 4-2 de Copenhague, l\u2019autre n\u2019a fait que du travail sp\u00e9cifique vendredi ; tous deux sont titulaires ;<\/li>\n<li>Le but norv\u00e9gien : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtp.pt\/noticias\/desporto\/noruega-e-proximo-adversario-jorge-jesus-acarinhado-por-adeptos-no-porto_e1769193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Solbakken a confirm\u00e9 Selvik titulaire<\/a>, un choix pr\u00e9par\u00e9 de longue main et sans lien avec les r\u00e9sultats ; Nyland l\u2019a appris par la t\u00e9l\u00e9vision ;<\/li>\n<li>La d\u00e9fense centrale norv\u00e9gienne priv\u00e9e de Heggem, absent dimanche ;<\/li>\n<li>L\u2019arbitrage, confi\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019Italien Maurizio Mariani.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Deux buts encaiss\u00e9s dans chacun des trois derniers matchs<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 Cardiff, la Norv\u00e8ge a ouvert le score \u00e0 la 11e sur une combinaison entre Berge, Bobb et \u00d8degaard, et men\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la 38e. Puis elle a craqu\u00e9 : Daniel James avant la pause, Neco Williams juste apr\u00e8s. Solbakken a parl\u00e9 d\u2019une \u00e9quipe \u00ab joli-joli en premi\u00e8re p\u00e9riode, trop faible d\u00e9fensivement \u00bb, et le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fotball.no\/landslag\/norge-a-herrer\/2026\/disse-starter-mot-wales\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rapport de la f\u00e9d\u00e9ration norv\u00e9gienne<\/a> raconte le m\u00eame match. Trois sorties, six buts encaiss\u00e9s, deux par match, sans exception.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>S\u00e9lection<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>au Danemark<\/td>\n<td>4-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>en Norv\u00e8ge<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>Pays de Galles<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Norv\u00e8ge<\/td>\n<td>au pays de Galles<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Norv\u00e8ge<\/td>\n<td>Portugal<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Norv\u00e8ge<\/td>\n<td>Danemark<\/td>\n<td>3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>La Norv\u00e8ge a marqu\u00e9 dans chacun de ces trois matchs ; ce qui l\u00e2che, c\u2019est l\u2019arri\u00e8re-garde.<\/p>\n<h2>Depuis jeudi, le march\u00e9 a rebascul\u00e9 sur le Portugal<\/h2>\n<p>J\u2019ai pris la victoire portugaise \u00e0 1,88 chez 10BET jeudi soir, quand le march\u00e9 doutait encore des jambes. Le 4-2 de Copenhague a invers\u00e9 le mouvement : la meilleure cote est redescendue \u00e0 1,68 chez Bwin ES ce samedi, contre 1,80 \u00e0 l\u2019ouverture, et le handicap \u00e0 -0,75 est pass\u00e9 de 2,025 \u00e0 1,75 chez Bet365. \u00c0 1,68, le march\u00e9 donne au Portugal pr\u00e8s de 60 % de chances ; \u00e0 ma prise, il en donnait \u00e0 peine 53.<\/p>\n<h2>Je garde le Portugal vainqueur, pris \u00e0 1,88<\/h2>\n<p>Portugal vainqueur dans le temps r\u00e9glementaire, pris \u00e0 1,88 chez 10BET, une unit\u00e9, soit 100 $. Je lui donne 57 % de chances de gagner ; le march\u00e9 en donne aujourd\u2019hui pr\u00e8s de 60 \u00e0 1,68. Le prix de jeudi n\u2019existe plus, le pari est pris. Le handicap \u00e0 -0,75 demanderait deux buts d\u2019\u00e9cart pour \u00eatre pay\u00e9 en entier ; contre une \u00e9quipe qui marque \u00e0 chaque sortie, je pr\u00e9f\u00e8re la victoire simple. La mise suit <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">le calculateur de Kelly<\/a>. Ce pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. Portugal gagne : +88,00 $ ; nul ou victoire norv\u00e9gienne : -100,00 $.<\/p>\n<p>18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Quatri\u00e8me victoire en quatre, les quarts en poche<\/h2>\n<p>Portugal 2, Norv\u00e8ge 1. Le nul qui aurait suffi n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9cessaire, et la Norv\u00e8ge a termin\u00e9 la fen\u00eatre comme elle l\u2019avait commenc\u00e9e : un but marqu\u00e9, deux encaiss\u00e9s, la s\u00e9rie port\u00e9e \u00e0 quatre matchs. Mon pari est gagn\u00e9 : victoire portugaise \u00e0 1,88 chez 10BET, une unit\u00e9, +88 $. La cote avait bascul\u00e9 vers le Portugal apr\u00e8s le 4-2 de Copenhague ; la lecture de jeudi suffisait.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Portugal 2-1 Norv\u00e8ge : quatri\u00e8me victoire en quatre, les quarts valid\u00e9s ; mon pari victoire portugaise (1,88, 10BET) est gagn\u00e9, +88 $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4862,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Portugal \u2013 Norv\u00e8ge : sans Ronaldo au Drag\u00e3o, j\u2019ai pris le Portugal vainqueur \u00e0 1,88 chez 10BET. Forme, rotations et mise en unit\u00e9s.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Portugal","ba_away_name":"Norv\u00e8ge","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-04 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Est\u00e1dio do Drag\u00e3o","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528941","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pvfb6y4bx7g","author_id":4,"market":"Vainqueur (temps r\u00e9glementaire)","selection":"Portugal vainqueur","bookmaker":"10BET","market_key":"ml","selection_key":"home","line":null,"odds":1.88,"stake_units":1,"stake_amount":100,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":88,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-01 21:34:10","settled_at":"2026-10-04 20:45:03","probability":0.57,"p_market":0.528,"p_used":0.549,"edge":0.0321,"market_margin":0.0623,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":1.75,"p_close":0.5769,"clv":0.0846,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-3738","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Portugal \u2013 Norv\u00e8ge : Jesus tourne au Drag\u00e3o, la Norv\u00e8ge encaisse &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Portugal \u2013 Norv\u00e8ge : sans Ronaldo au Drag\u00e3o, j\u2019ai pris le Portugal vainqueur \u00e0 1,88 chez 10BET. 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