{"id":3752,"date":"2026-10-01T23:35:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/pays-de-galles-danemark-pronostic-2026-10-04\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T23:07:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T21:07:40","slug":"pays-de-galles-danemark-pronostic-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/pays-de-galles-danemark-pronostic-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Pays de Galles \u2013 Danemark : Riemer compte ses absents, le march\u00e9 ne les compte pas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Jeudi soir, Cardiff a gagn\u00e9 son premier match de l\u2019ann\u00e9e : 2-1 contre la Norv\u00e8ge, un but de Daniel James \u00e0 la 38e, un coup franc de Neco Williams au retour des vestiaires (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.skysports.com\/football\/wales-vs-norway\/report\/554040\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">compte rendu de Sky Sports<\/a>). La m\u00eame soir\u00e9e, Copenhague encaissait quatre buts du Portugal. Dimanche au Cardiff City Stadium, le Danemark reste favori, mais la cote s\u2019est d\u00e9tendue : 2,01 chez 10BET ce samedi, contre 2,15 \u00e0 l\u2019ouverture.<\/p>\n<h2>Bellamy tient sa premi\u00e8re victoire de 2026<\/h2>\n<p>Le succ\u00e8s change le climat du vestiaire gallois : Bellamy sortait de six matchs sans victoire en 2026 et avait pris sur lui le 0-2 du match aller, racont\u00e9 par le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/football\/2026\/sep\/27\/denmark-wales-nations-league-group-a4-match-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Guardian<\/a>. Sa s\u00e9lection n\u2019avait marqu\u00e9 aucun but lors des deux premi\u00e8res journ\u00e9es ; elle en a mis deux d\u2019un coup jeudi. Il faut lire ce match avec ses conditions : la Norv\u00e8ge a fini \u00e0 dix apr\u00e8s l\u2019expulsion de Heggem, et le but d\u00e9cisif est venu d\u2019un coup franc.<\/p>\n<p>Le Pays de Galles n\u2019est pas au complet pour autant : Rodon, Wilson, Broadhead et Colwill sont \u00e0 l\u2019infirmerie, selon la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/sport\/football\/articles\/c615877d389no\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BBC<\/a>, et Brooks, qui avait manqu\u00e9 la Norv\u00e8ge, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.livescore.com\/en\/news\/football\/uefa-nations-league\/wales-vs-denmark-predictions-dragons-can-avenge-copenhagen-defeat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a quitt\u00e9 le groupe selon LiveScore<\/a>, sans confirmation de la f\u00e9d\u00e9ration. Daniel James arrive avec quatre buts et une passe sur ses neuf derni\u00e8res s\u00e9lections. La feuille officielle galloise aligne Koumas en pointe du 4-2-3-1, avec James et Johnson.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00ab Sept \u00e0 huit joueurs \u00bb absents c\u00f4t\u00e9 danois<\/h2>\n<p>C\u2019est Riemer qui donne le chiffre, <a href=\"https:\/\/sport.tv2.dk\/fodbold\/2026-09-29-danske-erstatninger-burde-ikke-vaere-med-mener-bruun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">critiqu\u00e9 jusqu\u2019aux remplacements convoqu\u00e9s<\/a> : sept \u00e0 huit joueurs habituellement dans le groupe manquent \u00e0 l\u2019appel, et le camp a continu\u00e9 de se vider jusqu\u2019\u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/campo.dk\/2026\/10\/03\/nu-igen-landsholdet-ramt-af-endnu-et-afbud\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">un groupe de 22 joueurs pour Cardiff<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Christensen, Bah et Dolberg, forfaits ;<\/li>\n<li>Gr\u00f8nb\u00e6k, bless\u00e9 contre la Norv\u00e8ge, que Riemer a choisi de ne pas remplacer ;<\/li>\n<li>Dorgu, touch\u00e9 \u00e0 la cuisse au match aller et rentr\u00e9 \u00e0 son club ;<\/li>\n<li>Nartey, convoqu\u00e9 en renfort, reparti sur une rechute d\u2019une ancienne blessure ;<\/li>\n<li>Jensen, g\u00ean\u00e9 par un muscle, et Eriksen, sans club, n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 convoqu\u00e9s.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Le noyau reste solide : H\u00f8jlund, H\u00f8jbjerg, Froholdt et Isaksen, homme du match au match aller, d\u00e9butent, Damsgaard n\u2019est pas titulaire, et c\u2019est Hermansen qui prend les buts. Riemer \u00e9tait d\u00e9j\u00e0 sous pression depuis l\u2019\u00e9chec du Mondial ; le 2-4 contre le Portugal n\u2019a rien arrang\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h2>Quatre duels, quatre victoires danoises<\/h2>\n<p>La raison du favori tient l\u00e0 : le Danemark a gagn\u00e9 les quatre derni\u00e8res confrontations, sans un seul nul, et le classement FIFA dit le m\u00eame \u00e9cart, 21e contre 38e.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09\/2026<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>Danemark \u2013 Pays de Galles<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2021<\/td>\n<td>Euro<\/td>\n<td>Pays de Galles \u2013 Danemark<\/td>\n<td>0-4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2018 (nov.)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>Pays de Galles \u2013 Danemark<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2018 (sept.)<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>Danemark \u2013 Pays de Galles<\/td>\n<td>2-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Les deux \u00e9quipes comptent trois points apr\u00e8s trois journ\u00e9es. L\u2019histoire plaide pour Copenhague, la forme r\u00e9cente moins : deux victoires danoises seulement sur les onze derniers d\u00e9placements, et un Pays de Galles invaincu \u00e0 Cardiff depuis cinq matchs.<\/p>\n<h2>Pris \u00e0 2,029 jeudi, rejoint par le march\u00e9 depuis<\/h2>\n<p>J\u2019ai pris la double chance Pays de Galles ou nul \u00e0 2,029 chez 1xbet, avec 52 % ; la cote en promettait 49,3. Le march\u00e9 a suivi la m\u00eame lecture : cette double chance ne vaut plus que 1,88 chez Unibet ce samedi, le Danemark s\u2019est d\u00e9tendu de 2,15 \u00e0 2,01 chez 10BET et le nul s\u2019est resserr\u00e9 de 4,33 \u00e0 3,75. L\u2019\u00e9cart que je voyais s\u2019est referm\u00e9 ; le pari est pris, il reste tel quel.<\/p>\n<p>La mise reste 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $ : un petit \u00e9cart appelle une petite mise, et le d\u00e9tail du calcul est dans <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">le calculateur de Kelly<\/a>. Le pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. Pays de Galles gagne ou fait nul : +25,73 $ ; le Danemark gagne : -25,00 $.<\/p>\n<p>18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le noyau danois a suffi<\/h2>\n<p>Pays de Galles 0, Danemark 1. Priv\u00e9 de \u00ab sept \u00e0 huit joueurs \u00bb, le Danemark n\u2019a eu besoin que de son noyau : cinqui\u00e8me victoire d\u2019affil\u00e9e sur le pays de Galles, toujours sans nul, et une s\u00e9lection galloise qui n\u2019a pas trouv\u00e9 le chemin des filets \u00e0 Cardiff. Mon pari est perdu : Pays de Galles ou nul \u00e0 2,029 chez 1xbet, 0,25 unit\u00e9, \u221225 $. Les absents ont manqu\u00e9 au spectacle, pas au r\u00e9sultat ; le favori du d\u00e9part a gard\u00e9 sa place.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pays de Galles 0-1 Danemark : cinqui\u00e8me victoire danoise d\u2019affil\u00e9e, Cardiff n\u2019a pas marqu\u00e9 ; mon pari Pays de Galles ou nul (2,03, 1xbet) est perdu, \u221225 $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4867,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Pays de Galles \u2013 Danemark : Cardiff relanc\u00e9, le Danemark r\u00e9duit \u00e0 22. J\u2019ai pris le Pays de Galles ou nul \u00e0 2,029 chez 1xbet, mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Pays de Galles","ba_away_name":"Danemark","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-04 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Cardiff City Stadium","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528942","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pfxfhhxdm29","author_id":4,"market":"Double chance","selection":"Pays de Galles ou nul","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"dc","selection_key":"1x","line":null,"odds":2.029,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":25.72,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"lost","recorded_at":"2026-10-01 21:35:45","settled_at":"2026-10-04 20:45:03","probability":0.52,"p_market":0.4789,"p_used":0.4995,"edge":0.0134,"market_margin":0.0681,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":1.82,"p_close":0.536,"clv":0.0875,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-3752","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pays de Galles \u2013 Danemark : Riemer compte ses absents, le march\u00e9 ne les compte pas &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Pays de Galles \u2013 Danemark : Cardiff relanc\u00e9, le Danemark r\u00e9duit \u00e0 22. 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