{"id":3766,"date":"2026-10-01T23:36:54","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:36:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/republique-irlande-israel-pronostic-2026-10-04\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T23:08:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T21:08:19","slug":"republique-irlande-israel-pronostic-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/republique-irlande-israel-pronostic-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"R\u00e9publique d&rsquo;Irlande \u2013 Isra\u00ebl : \u00e0 huis clos en Serbie, je joue les buts irlandais"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le match retour se joue \u00e0 huis clos \u00e0 la TSC Arena de Ba\u010dka Topola, en Serbie, loin de l&rsquo;Aviva : d\u00e9cision de la FAI valid\u00e9e par l&rsquo;UEFA, annonc\u00e9e d\u00e8s juin par la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fai.ie\/latest\/fai-confirms-venue-uefa-nations-league-fixture-against-israel\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">f\u00e9d\u00e9ration irlandaise<\/a>. L&rsquo;Irlande reste l&rsquo;\u00e9quipe \u00ab \u00e0 domicile \u00bb sur la feuille de match ; l&rsquo;avantage du terrain, lui, a disparu avec le public.<\/p>\n<h2>Sans O&rsquo;Shea ni Bazunu, la feuille irlandaise se recompose<\/h2>\n<p>La conf\u00e9rence de presse de samedi a \u00e9t\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishmirror.ie\/sport\/soccer\/soccer-news\/heimir-hallgrimsson-press-conference-ends-37730710\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00e9court\u00e9e<\/a> : une question sur l&rsquo;attaque d&rsquo;un avion Duba\u00ef\u2013Tel-Aviv, puis une accusation d&rsquo;insulte raciste \u00e0 l&rsquo;aller que la FAI d\u00e9ment. Hallgr\u00edmsson n&rsquo;a pas d\u00e9voil\u00e9 son onze samedi ; la feuille officielle du dimanche donne un 3-5-1-1 avec Idah en pointe et Parrott dans son dos.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Le capitaine suppl\u00e9ant Dara O&rsquo;Shea, rest\u00e9 chez lui : son enfant doit na\u00eetre ;<\/li>\n<li>Gavin Bazunu, indisponible \u00ab par principe \u00bb comme pour l&rsquo;aller : c&rsquo;est C. Kelleher qui garde les buts ;<\/li>\n<li>James Abankwah suspendu, Jason Knight titulaire ;<\/li>\n<li>Le capitaine Nathan Collins, forfait pour toute la fen\u00eatre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finn Azaz, \u00ab un poste diff\u00e9rent des autres joueurs \u00bb selon son s\u00e9lectionneur, est rest\u00e9 dans le groupe apr\u00e8s avoir \u00e9t\u00e9 align\u00e9 plus bas contre l&rsquo;Autriche.<\/p>\n<h2>Isra\u00ebl : un point, un entra\u00eeneur maintenu, une d\u00e9fense \u00e0 bricoler<\/h2>\n<p>Ran Ben-Shimon garde son poste apr\u00e8s le 0-0 du jeudi, premier point isra\u00e9lien de la fen\u00eatre ; la presse de son pays le r\u00e9clamait dehors depuis le 0-3. Dia Saba a \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9cart\u00e9 de la liste, Noam Steifman <a href=\"https:\/\/news.itsbaba.com\/156494\/israel-national-football-team-squad-announced-for-nations-le-156494\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">appel\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois<\/a> : derri\u00e8re, les corps manquent.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>S\u00e9lection<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Irlande<\/td>\n<td>Autriche<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Irlande<\/td>\n<td>en Isra\u00ebl<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Irlande<\/td>\n<td>au Kosovo<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Isra\u00ebl<\/td>\n<td>Kosovo<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Isra\u00ebl<\/td>\n<td>Irlande<\/td>\n<td>0-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Isra\u00ebl<\/td>\n<td>en Autriche<\/td>\n<td>1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Le march\u00e9 a rel\u00e2ch\u00e9 l&rsquo;Irlande<\/h2>\n<p>La victoire irlandaise, ouverte vers 2,06, \u00e9tait tomb\u00e9e \u00e0 1,95 apr\u00e8s le 3-0 de l&rsquo;aller ; elle est repartie \u00e0 2,25 chez Betano ce samedi. Le handicap \u22120,25 a suivi, de 1,65 \u00e0 1,825 chez Bet365. Les books ont dig\u00e9r\u00e9 les forfaits, la fatigue de quatre matchs en dix jours et l&rsquo;absence de public ; ils n&rsquo;ont pas chang\u00e9 d&rsquo;avis sur le fond.<\/p>\n<p>Ma ligne y gagne : plus de 1,5 but irlandais, pris \u00e0 2,02 chez Unibet, s&rsquo;\u00e9change d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 2,25 chez BetMGM. Le march\u00e9 a rejoint ma lecture, dans le sens du pari d\u00e9j\u00e0 enregistr\u00e9.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : l&rsquo;Irlande plus de 1,5 but, mise minimale<\/h2>\n<p>Je donne 52 % \u00e0 deux buts irlandais ou plus : trois buts contre Isra\u00ebl il y a une semaine, deux contre l&rsquo;Autriche jeudi, trois encaiss\u00e9s par Isra\u00ebl dans le match aller. Le 0-0 contre le Kosovo est le sc\u00e9nario qui fait perdre le pari, et il a exist\u00e9 jeudi. La prise reste 2,02 chez Unibet, la mise la minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9, 25 $ : l&rsquo;avantage \u00e0 la prise \u00e9tait infime, la hausse du week-end ne change rien au pari enregistr\u00e9. L&rsquo;Irlande marque deux buts ou plus : +25,50 $ ; elle en marque z\u00e9ro ou un : \u221225,00 $. La m\u00e9thode est dans <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">le calculateur de Kelly<\/a>, le pari rejoint mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Un seul but irlandais<\/h2>\n<p>R\u00e9publique d\u2019Irlande 1, Isra\u00ebl 1. Le pari est perdu : l\u2019Irlande n\u2019a pas trouv\u00e9 le second but, et Isra\u00ebl repart de Ba\u010dka Topola avec un deuxi\u00e8me point dans la fen\u00eatre, apr\u00e8s celui du Kosovo. La ligne des buts irlandais, prise \u00e0 2,02 chez Unibet, termine du mauvais c\u00f4t\u00e9 : 0,25 unit\u00e9, \u221225 $. La cote montait contre les buts irlandais d\u00e8s samedi ; le march\u00e9 a mieux lu cette attaque que moi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>R\u00e9publique d\u2019Irlande 1-1 Isra\u00ebl : un seul but irlandais, Isra\u00ebl prend un deuxi\u00e8me point ; mon pari plus de 1,5 buts irlandais (2,02, Unibet) est perdu, \u221225 $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4872,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic R\u00e9publique d'Irlande \u2013 Isra\u00ebl : huis clos \u00e0 Ba\u010dka Topola, Irlande plus de 1,5 but pris \u00e0 2,02 chez Unibet, mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"R\u00e9publique d'Irlande","ba_away_name":"Isra\u00ebl","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-04 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Gradski Stadion","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528943","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pocgzyxsiqx","author_id":4,"market":"Total de l'\u00e9quipe \u00e0 domicile","selection":"Irlande plus de 1,5 but","bookmaker":"Unibet","market_key":"tt_home","selection_key":"over","line":1.5,"odds":2.02,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":25.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"lost","recorded_at":"2026-10-01 21:37:14","settled_at":"2026-10-04 20:45:03","probability":0.52,"p_market":0.473,"p_used":0.4965,"edge":0.0029,"market_margin":0.0842,"market_books":5,"closing_odds":2.1,"p_close":0.473,"clv":-0.0445,"stake_rule":"min"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-3766","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>R\u00e9publique d&#039;Irlande \u2013 Isra\u00ebl : \u00e0 huis clos en Serbie, je joue les buts irlandais &#183; 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