{"id":3794,"date":"2026-10-01T23:49:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:49:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/pays-bas-serbie-pronostic-2026-10-04\/"},"modified":"2026-10-04T23:09:16","modified_gmt":"2026-10-04T21:09:16","slug":"pays-bas-serbie-pronostic-2026-10-04","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/pays-bas-serbie-pronostic-2026-10-04\/","title":{"rendered":"Pays-Bas \u2013 Serbie : l\u2019Oranje d\u00e9cim\u00e9 en attaque, la Serbie en qu\u00eate d\u2019un premier point"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00ab Il nous manque des automatismes \u00bb, a r\u00e9sum\u00e9 Veljko Paunovi\u0107 apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9faite 0-2 \u00e0 Munich. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.b92.net\/sport\/fudbal\/srpski-fudbal\/272591\/izjava-veljka-paunovica-nakon-poraza-od-nemacke-u-ligi-nacija\/vest\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Certaines choses se r\u00e9p\u00e8tent<\/a>, a-t-il encha\u00een\u00e9 ; la presse serbe voit dans les d\u00e9faites de la fen\u00eatre la chute au deuxi\u00e8me chapeau du tirage de l\u2019Euro 2028. Dimanche \u00e0 Eindhoven, pour le dernier match de la fen\u00eatre, sa Serbie joue sa quatri\u00e8me sortie en onze jours, toujours sans point. Face \u00e0 elle, l\u2019Oranje de Xavi Hern\u00e1ndez n\u2019a pas perdu depuis sa prise de fonction cet \u00e9t\u00e9 : 5 points en trois matchs, mais une infirmerie pleine.<\/p>\n<h2>Trois d\u00e9faites, et Milinkovi\u0107-Savi\u0107 en moins<\/h2>\n<p>La Serbie a perdu ses trois matchs de la campagne : 1-2 contre la Gr\u00e8ce, 1-2 contre ces Pays-Bas il y a une semaine \u00e0 Belgrade, 0-2 en Allemagne jeudi. En comptant le 1-5 au Mexique en juin et le 0-3 au Cap-Vert fin mai, la s\u00e9rie monte \u00e0 cinq d\u00e9faites de rang. Elle aborde Eindhoven sans Sergej Milinkovi\u0107-Savi\u0107, bless\u00e9 musculaire pour les deux d\u00e9placements ; Strahinja Pavlovi\u0107, incertain, tient finalement sa place. <a href=\"https:\/\/fss.rs\/a-tim-promene-u-sastavu-pred-nastavak-lige-nacija\/?script=lat\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">La f\u00e9d\u00e9ration serbe<\/a> a lib\u00e9r\u00e9 Nikoli\u0107 et Milo\u0161evi\u0107 et appel\u00e9 Mimovi\u0107 et le gardien Rosi\u0107 : le groupe est resserr\u00e9. La fen\u00eatre se ferme loin de Belgrade : entra\u00eenement samedi au complexe du Bayern, puis vol vers Eindhoven ; le Lituanien Donatas Rum\u0161as dirigera la rencontre.<\/p>\n<h2>L\u2019Oranje gagne en comptant ses absents<\/h2>\n<p>Les Pays-Bas ont battu cette Serbie 2-1 \u00e0 Belgrade, puis arrach\u00e9 le 2-2 en Gr\u00e8ce jeudi soir, men\u00e9s deux fois. Mais Xavi compose avec une cascade de blessures, et l\u2019attaque paie le plus lourd tribut :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gakpo, Brobbey, Geertruida et Van Hecke, tous rentr\u00e9s en club sur blessure ; seul Brobbey a un rempla\u00e7ant, Zirkzee ;<\/li>\n<li>Van Hecke (pied) \u00e9tait forfait pour toute la fen\u00eatre : la s\u00e9lection voyage \u00e0 23 ;<\/li>\n<li>Timber, remis, a \u00e9t\u00e9 titulaire contre la Gr\u00e8ce, et Zechi\u00ebl a \u00e9t\u00e9 rappel\u00e9 de la Jong Oranje ; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.onsoranje.nl\/nieuws\/nederlands-elftal-mannen\/82717\/oranje-vervolgt-nations-league-servi%C3%AB-elf-feiten\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Van Dijk f\u00eate sa 100e s\u00e9lection<\/a> : il est titulaire dimanche.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Les 23 restants se sont entra\u00een\u00e9s samedi \u00e0 Zeist, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.headliner.nl\/item\/nederlands-elftal-werkt-met-complete-selectie-naar-laatste-nations-league-duel-met-servie-toe-telegraaf-2251537\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">groupe au complet<\/a> ; la Telegraaf en compte d\u00e9sormais six d\u00e9parts sur blessure pour la fen\u00eatre, un d\u00e9compte plus large que les quatre noms ci-dessus. La feuille officielle confirme l\u2019attaque recompos\u00e9e : Summerville, Meerdink et Lang.<\/p>\n<p>Les trois rencontres de la fen\u00eatre, toutes en Ligue des nations :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u00c9quipe<\/th>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Adversaire<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Gr\u00e8ce (ext.)<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Serbie (ext.)<\/td>\n<td>2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Pays-Bas<\/td>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Allemagne (dom.)<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Serbie<\/td>\n<td>01\/10<\/td>\n<td>Allemagne (ext.)<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Serbie<\/td>\n<td>27\/09<\/td>\n<td>Pays-Bas (dom.)<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Serbie<\/td>\n<td>24\/09<\/td>\n<td>Gr\u00e8ce (dom.)<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,18, le favori ne se joue plus<\/h2>\n<p>La victoire n\u00e9erlandaise, ouverte \u00e0 1,28, cotait 1,22 jeudi ; elle est pass\u00e9e \u00e0 1,18 chez Betano ce samedi. La ligne de handicap principale, les Pays-Bas \u22122,25, s\u2019est resserr\u00e9e de 2,30 \u00e0 1,975. \u00c0 ce prix, la victoire n\u00e9erlandaise ne laisse rien \u00e0 prendre, et le march\u00e9 attend un \u00e9cart plus net qu\u2019\u00e0 la r\u00e9daction.<\/p>\n<p>Ma ligne a suivi le chemin inverse : prise \u00e0 2,375 chez Bet365, la Serbie +1,5 cote d\u00e9sormais 2,60. Le march\u00e9 croyait \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9cart plus qu\u2019au carton ; il y croit un peu plus aujourd\u2019hui.<\/p>\n<h2>Serbie +1,5 : une d\u00e9faite courte suffit<\/h2>\n<p>Le pari gagne si la Serbie gagne, fait nul ou perd d\u2019un but en 90 minutes (+34,38 $ pour 0,25 unit\u00e9 de mise) ; il perd si les Pays-Bas gagnent par deux buts ou plus (\u221225,00 $). La prise reste 2,375 chez Bet365 ; je donne 45 % \u00e0 l\u2019issue, la cote du jour un peu moins de deux fois sur cinq.<\/p>\n<p>Mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9 : cette ligne co\u00fbte pr\u00e8s de 9 % de marge malgr\u00e9 les cinq bookmakers qui la cotent, et mon \u00e9cart avec le march\u00e9 reste \u00e9troit. Le calcul de mise passe par le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> ; le pari rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<p>Le sc\u00e9nario qui fait gagner le pari : une Serbie regroup\u00e9e qui d\u00e9fend bas et tient l\u2019\u00e9cart \u00e0 un but, face \u00e0 une attaque priv\u00e9e de Gakpo et Brobbey. La feuille officielle serbe, un 5-3-2 avec Tadi\u0107, va dans ce sens. Celui qui le fait perdre : l\u2019Oranje retrouve devant la fluidit\u00e9 montr\u00e9e \u00e0 Belgrade et creuse l\u2019\u00e9cart d\u00e8s la premi\u00e8re mi-temps.<\/p>\n<h2>La d\u00e9faite courte, exactement le pari<\/h2>\n<p>Pays-Bas 2, Serbie 1. Le sc\u00e9nario d\u00e9crit avant le match est sorti : une Serbie regroup\u00e9e qui d\u00e9fend bas et tient l\u2019\u00e9cart \u00e0 un but, un Oranje recompos\u00e9 qui gagne sans jamais creuser deux fois. Mon handicap Serbie +1,5 est gagn\u00e9 : 2,375 chez Bet365, 0,25 unit\u00e9, +34,38 $. La fen\u00eatre serbe se referme sur quatre d\u00e9faites et aucun point ; l\u2019Oranje de Xavi Hern\u00e1ndez termine invaincu. L\u2019\u00e9cart avec le march\u00e9 \u00e9tait \u00e9troit, la mise minimale aussi ; le gain suit la m\u00eame \u00e9chelle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pays-Bas 2-1 Serbie : la d\u00e9faite courte, exactement le pari ; mon handicap Serbie +1,5 (2,375, Bet365) est gagn\u00e9, +34,38 $. La Serbie finit \u00e0 z\u00e9ro point.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":4882,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pays-Bas \u2013 Serbie : Oranje priv\u00e9 de Gakpo et Brobbey, handicap Serbie +1,5 pris \u00e0 2,375 chez Bet365. Analyse, cotes et mise du 4 octobre.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Pays-Bas","ba_away_name":"Serbie","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-04 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Philips Stadion","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528940","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pofc0mxdsr5","author_id":4,"market":"Handicap asiatique","selection":"Serbie +1,5","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":1.5,"odds":2.375,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":34.38,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-01 21:49:49","settled_at":"2026-10-04 20:45:03","probability":0.45,"p_market":0.4079,"p_used":0.429,"edge":0.0188,"market_margin":0.0896,"market_books":5,"closing_odds":2.75,"p_close":0.3848,"clv":-0.0861,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-3794","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pays-Bas \u2013 Serbie : l\u2019Oranje d\u00e9cim\u00e9 en attaque, la Serbie en qu\u00eate d\u2019un premier point &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pays-Bas \u2013 Serbie : Oranje priv\u00e9 de Gakpo et Brobbey, handicap Serbie +1,5 pris \u00e0 2,375 chez Bet365. 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