{"id":4261,"date":"2026-10-03T12:05:01","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T10:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/bosnie-herzegovine-pologne-la-favorite-arrive-sans-son-buteur\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T23:10:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T21:10:45","slug":"bosnie-herzegovine-pologne-pronostic-2026-10-05","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/bosnie-herzegovine-pologne-pronostic-2026-10-05\/","title":{"rendered":"Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine \u2013 Pologne : la favorite arrive sans son buteur"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Vendredi \u00e0 Varsovie, Lewandowski a sign\u00e9 un <a href=\"https:\/\/legia.net\/news\/demolka-na-narodowym-wysokie-zwyciestwo-polski-z-rumunia\/105388\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tripl\u00e9 dans le 6-0<\/a> contre la Roumanie. Dans la foul\u00e9e, Jan Urban a confirm\u00e9 que son attaquant, pris par les cartons, <a href=\"https:\/\/legia.net\/news\/jan-urban-mecz-z-bosnia-kolejnym-krokiem\/105391\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ne jouera pas lundi \u00e0 Zenica<\/a>. La Pologne arrive donc au Bilino Polje avec le 6-0 de Varsovie en t\u00eate, sans son buteur, devant <a href=\"https:\/\/reprezentacija.ba\/530615-rasprodate-ulaznice-za-utakmicu-bih-poljska\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">15 600 places vendues<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Un 6-0 \u00e0 lire \u00e0 dix contre onze<\/h2>\n<p>La Roumanie a jou\u00e9 \u00e0 dix d\u00e8s la 22e minute vendredi, et le score en dit plus sur la punition que sur l&#8217;\u00e9cart entre les deux \u00e9quipes. Le reste de la fen\u00eatre dessine une autre Pologne : 0-0 contre cette Bosnie \u00e0 Varsovie, puis d\u00e9faite 3-1 en Su\u00e8de. Vendredi, tout est rentr\u00e9 ; partout ailleurs, la Pologne cherche.<\/p>\n<p>Ce que Lewandowski change, \u00e0 mes yeux : le point de fixation dans la surface. Sans lui, l&#8217;attaque polonaise se joue au sol, et un bloc bas comme celui de la Bosnie ferme l&#8217;axe bien plus facilement. Zieli\u0144ski et Bednarek, titulaires lundi, ont marqu\u00e9 vendredi ; les solutions restent, la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence devant, non : l&#8217;onze officiel donne \u017bukowski seul en pointe, \u015awiderski et Szyma\u0144ski derri\u00e8re lui.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lewandowski, suspendu apr\u00e8s son deuxi\u00e8me jaune, re\u00e7u contre la Roumanie ; il a quitt\u00e9 le groupe samedi et <a href=\"https:\/\/sport.interia.pl\/pilka-nozna\/reprezentacja-polski\/news-media-potwierdzilo-sie-ws-lewandowskiego-jest-decyzja-po-zaw,nId,23552943\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rentre \u00e0 Chicago Fire<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Benedyczak (poignet cass\u00e9) et R\u00f3zga (muscle), forfaits annonc\u00e9s avant la fen\u00eatre.<\/li>\n<li>Zi\u00f3\u0142kowski, bless\u00e9, sorti du groupe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Une Bosnie invaincue, d\u00e9j\u00e0 en deuil de son capitaine<\/h2>\n<p>C\u00f4t\u00e9 bosnien, la dynamique est inverse : cinq points et toujours pas de d\u00e9faite dans ce groupe, un nul arrach\u00e9 \u00e0 la Su\u00e8de vendredi au Bilino Polje. Barbarez parle de grande confiance, la presse locale appelle \u00e0 ne pas s&#8217;enflammer. Vendredi soir, le stade a surtout dit au revoir \u00e0 Edin D\u017eeko, 40 ans, 151 s\u00e9lections, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goal.com\/en\/lists\/dzeko-leaves-the-national-team-and-leaves-the-whole-of-bosnia-in-tears-farewell-to-the-greatest-of-all-time\/bltf001c818434af168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">salu\u00e9 \u00e0 la 11e minute<\/a>, son num\u00e9ro, par une tribune debout. La c\u00e9r\u00e9monie a eu lieu sur un nul ; lundi, la Bosnie joue sa premi\u00e8re grande affaire sans lui, Demirovi\u0107 et Tabakovi\u0107 en attaque. Au Bilino Polje, elle compte une seule d\u00e9faite sur ses huit derniers matchs \u00e0 domicile, mais les trois derniers s&#8217;y sont tous termin\u00e9s \u00e0 \u00e9galit\u00e9 ; la Pologne n&#8217;a gagn\u00e9 que deux de ses huit derniers d\u00e9placements, contre Malte et la Lituanie.<\/p>\n<p>Trois confrontations r\u00e9centes entre les deux :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Match<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>25\/09\/2026<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>Pologne \u2013 Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>14\/10\/2020<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>Pologne \u2013 Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine<\/td>\n<td>3-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>07\/09\/2020<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine \u2013 Pologne<\/td>\n<td>1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Un pari pris avant que le march\u00e9 ne suive<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 a tourn\u00e9 vers la Bosnie et le nul : la Pologne a gliss\u00e9 de 2,27 \u00e0 2,37 au meilleur prix, la Bosnie s&#8217;est resserr\u00e9e de 3,40 \u00e0 3,20 chez 10BET, et la double chance Bosnie ou nul ne vaut plus que 1,63 chez Unibet, contre 1,75 quand j&#8217;ai pris le pari samedi. \u00c0 1,75, le march\u00e9 donnait 57,1 % \u00e0 l&#8217;id\u00e9e que la Bosnie ne perd pas. Je la vois toujours \u00e0 62 %.<\/p>\n<h2>La Bosnie ou le nul \u00e0 1,75<\/h2>\n<p>Ce qui fait gagner ce pari : un bloc bosnien qui ferme l&#8217;axe, une Pologne sans point de fixation qui s&#8217;\u00e9nerve devant ; un match qui se referme finit nul, et le nul est d\u00e9j\u00e0 dans le pari. Ce qui le fait perdre : une soir\u00e9e polonaise comme vendredi, o\u00f9 tout rentre m\u00eame sans le patron. Mise : 1,25 unit\u00e9, soit 125 $, sur la double chance \u00e0 1,75 chez 888Sport. Bosnie ou nul \u00e0 la fin du temps r\u00e9glementaire : +93,75 $. Victoire polonaise : -125 $.<\/p>\n<p>Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> recalcule les mises en unit\u00e9s, et le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a> garde mes pronostics, gagn\u00e9s comme perdus. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le penalty de Ba\u0161i\u0107 \u00e0 la 84e<\/h2>\n<p>La Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine a battu la Pologne 1-0 au Bilino Polje, sur un penalty d&#8217;Ivan Ba\u0161i\u0107 \u00e0 la 84e minute. Le match s&#8217;est tenu comme je l&#8217;avais lu : la Pologne sans Lewandowski a tourn\u00e9 au sol devant un bloc ferm\u00e9, sans jamais trouver l&#8217;axe, et Zenica a attendu la faute dans la surface. La Bosnie, seule \u00e9quipe encore invaincue de ce groupe, prend la deuxi\u00e8me place derri\u00e8re la Su\u00e8de.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari, la Bosnie ou le nul \u00e0 1,75, est gagn\u00e9, et le nul n&#8217;a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9cessaire : 1,25 unit\u00e9, 93,75 $, la plus grosse mise de ma fen\u00eatre, pay\u00e9e comme les autres. La Pologne, elle, repart avec le souvenir du 6-0 et une seule victoire en quatre matchs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Bosnie a battu la Pologne 1-0 sur un penalty de Ba\u0161i\u0107 \u00e0 la 84e. Mon pari Bosnie ou nul \u00e0 1,75 est gagn\u00e9, 1,25 unit\u00e9, la plus grosse mise de la fen\u00eatre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5271,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine \u2013 Pologne : Lewandowski rentr\u00e9 \u00e0 Chicago, la Bosnie invaincue \u00e0 Zenica. Je maintiens la Bosnie ou le nul \u00e0 1,75, 1,25 unit\u00e9.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine","ba_away_name":"Pologne","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-05 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Stadion Bilino Polje","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528948","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"p1grnj0pa38","author_id":4,"market":"Double chance","selection":"Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine ou nul","bookmaker":"888Sport","market_key":"dc","selection_key":"1x","line":null,"odds":1.75,"stake_units":1.25,"stake_amount":125,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":93.75,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-03 10:06:18","settled_at":"2026-10-05 20:45:05","probability":0.62,"p_market":0.563,"p_used":0.5915,"edge":0.0351,"market_margin":0.064,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":1.667,"p_close":0.5807,"clv":0.0162,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-4261","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine \u2013 Pologne : la favorite arrive sans son buteur &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Bosnie-Herz\u00e9govine \u2013 Pologne : Lewandowski rentr\u00e9 \u00e0 Chicago, la Bosnie invaincue \u00e0 Zenica. 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