{"id":4684,"date":"2026-10-04T11:51:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-04T09:51:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/ecosse-slovenie-pronostic-2026-10-06\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T23:23:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T21:23:45","slug":"ecosse-slovenie-pronostic-2026-10-06","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/ecosse-slovenie-pronostic-2026-10-06\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9cosse &#8211; Slov\u00e9nie : la deuxi\u00e8me place en jeu, l&#8217;\u00c9cosse priv\u00e9e de cinq hommes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le 26 septembre \u00e0 Ljubljana, l&#8217;\u00c9cosse a eu le ballon et les positions de tir : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtvslo.si\/sport\/nogomet\/liga-narodov\/slovenija-se-je-dokaj-enakovredno-kosala-s-cetrtfinalisti-sp-ja\/795758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">17 tirs contre 4<\/a>, un 0-0 pour tout bilan. Les deux \u00e9quipes se retrouvent mardi \u00e0 Hampden Park, quatre points chacune, la deuxi\u00e8me place du groupe en jeu : la Suisse m\u00e8ne, et le vainqueur passera seul devant l&#8217;autre.<\/p>\n<h2>Une victoire \u00e0 Skopje, des absents qui s&#8217;accumulent<\/h2>\n<p>S\u00e9bastien Pocognoli a gagn\u00e9 son premier match sur le banc \u00e9cossais, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/football\/2026\/oct\/03\/north-macedonia-scotland-nations-league-match-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">samedi en Mac\u00e9doine du Nord<\/a> : 2-0, Bowie d\u00e8s la 7e minute, McGinn sur penalty \u00e0 l&#8217;heure de jeu. Devant son public, le successeur de Steve Clarke attend toujours : 0-3 contre la Suisse le 29 septembre, apr\u00e8s le rouge de Jack Hendry d\u00e8s la 10e minute, et 80 minutes \u00e0 dix.<\/p>\n<p>La <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scottishfa.co.uk\/en\/news\/sebastien-pocognoli-selects-first-scotland-squad-for-upcoming-uefa-nations-league-fixtures\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">liste des absents<\/a> s&#8217;allonge en plein mauvais moment :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Scott McKenna, expuls\u00e9 \u00e0 la 83e minute \u00e0 Skopje, suspendu ;<\/li>\n<li>Scott McTominay, qui r\u00e9cup\u00e8re d&#8217;une proc\u00e9dure cardiaque ;<\/li>\n<li>Che Adams, bless\u00e9 ;<\/li>\n<li>Kieran Tierney et Kenny McLean, forfaits de derni\u00e8re minute, remplac\u00e9s par Kristi Montgomery.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Andy Robertson a f\u00eat\u00e9 sa 100e s\u00e9lection en Mac\u00e9doine et Pocognoli promet \u00ab le m\u00eame visage \u00bb \u00e0 Hampden. La feuille officielle tient la promesse : Jack Hendry, suspension purg\u00e9e, revient dans une d\u00e9fense \u00e0 trois, Robertson et Doak tiennent les couloirs, McBurnie est seul en pointe avec Christie dans son dos, Gilmour et McGinn au milieu. Sans cinq hommes, le visage change quand m\u00eame.<\/p>\n<h2>La Slov\u00e9nie s&#8217;incline en Suisse, le plan ne change pas<\/h2>\n<p>Bo\u0161tjan Cesar, arriv\u00e9 apr\u00e8s Matja\u017e Kek, a perdu son premier d\u00e9placement <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rtvslo.si\/sport\/nogomet\/liga-narodov\/slovenija-ekspresno-povedla-a-vseeno-v-svici-ostala-praznih-rok\/795690\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">en Suisse<\/a> : 1-2 samedi, Vipotnik avait ouvert le score d\u00e8s la 2e minute ; un but contre son camp de Jan\u017ea puis une r\u00e9alisation de Ndoye ont renvers\u00e9 le match avant la pause. Trois jours plus t\u00f4t, sa Slov\u00e9nie avait battu la Mac\u00e9doine du Nord 2-0, et elle avait tenu l&#8217;\u00c9cosse en \u00e9chec au match aller.<\/p>\n<p>Benjamin \u0160e\u0161ko, touch\u00e9 au tibia, est rest\u00e9 \u00e0 la maison avec Benjamin Verbi\u010d et Andra\u017e \u0160porar. Vipotnik r\u00e9sume le plan pour Hampden : \u00ab tenir le premier assaut et saisir la premi\u00e8re occasion \u00bb ; la feuille officielle le place en pointe, avec Matko \u00e0 ses c\u00f4t\u00e9s. Neuf Slov\u00e8nes sont \u00e0 un avertissement d&#8217;une suspension pour le match de novembre : ce d\u00e9tail p\u00e8sera sur l&#8217;engagement dans les duels.<\/p>\n<p>Et un chiffre de l&#8217;histoire pour finir : six confrontations contre l&#8217;\u00c9cosse, quatre nuls, deux d\u00e9faites, aucune victoire.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>26\/09\/2026<\/td>\n<td>Slov\u00e9nie &#8211; \u00c9cosse<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des nations<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>08\/10\/2017<\/td>\n<td>Slov\u00e9nie &#8211; \u00c9cosse<\/td>\n<td>\u00c9liminatoires du Mondial<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>26\/03\/2017<\/td>\n<td>\u00c9cosse &#8211; Slov\u00e9nie<\/td>\n<td>\u00c9liminatoires du Mondial<\/td>\n<td>1-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,80, le march\u00e9 n&#8217;a pas fini de raccourcir<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;\u00c9cosse gagnante cote 1,80 chez 10BET, contre 2,26 \u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture : vingt pour cent de baisse, et elle valait encore 1,92 hier \u00e0 la publication de cette page. Le nul est \u00e0 3,60 chez Betway, la Slov\u00e9nie \u00e0 4,85 chez Betano. \u00c0 ce prix, le march\u00e9 donne un peu plus d&#8217;une chance sur deux \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00c9cosse, et je le trouve press\u00e9 : Skopje a masqu\u00e9 les absents, sans les faire dispara\u00eetre. La double chance Slov\u00e9nie ou nul reste au-dessus de 2 : 2,06 chez 1xbet.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : la Slov\u00e9nie ou le nul \u00e0 2,00<\/h2>\n<p>Je prends la double chance Slov\u00e9nie ou nul \u00e0 2,00 chez Bet365, et je donne 54 % de chances \u00e0 ce pari, l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la cote en promet 50. Le nul laisse la Slov\u00e9nie deuxi\u00e8me \u00e0 la diff\u00e9rence de buts : elle peut jouer le match qui lui r\u00e9ussit, regroup\u00e9e et patiente, comme \u00e0 Ljubljana.<\/p>\n<p>Ce qui me fait gagner : un bloc slov\u00e8ne qui absorbe le pressing \u00e9cossais une heure, et une attaque remani\u00e9e qui manque le dernier geste, comme au match aller. Ce qui me fait perdre : un but \u00e9cossais t\u00f4t, qui force la Slov\u00e9nie \u00e0 sortir de son sch\u00e9ma.<\/p>\n<p>Mise : 0,5 unit\u00e9, soit 50 $, une mise <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calcul\u00e9e pour \u00eatre juste<\/a> : mon avantage sur le march\u00e9 est court, la mise le suit. La Slov\u00e9nie gagne ou le match est nul : plus 50 $. L&#8217;\u00c9cosse gagne : mise perdue. Ce pari rejoint le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Christie ouvre, la Slov\u00e9nie retourne Hampden<\/h2>\n<p>L&#8217;\u00c9cosse a eu Hampden pendant une heure. Christie ouvre \u00e0 la 31e, du bout du pied gauche, apr\u00e8s une t\u00eate de Hendry venue heurter le poteau sur coup franc. Matko \u00e9galise \u00e0 la 56e en conclusion d&#8217;un contre rapide, \u0160turm retourne le match \u00e0 la 71e, \u00e0 la r\u00e9ception d&#8217;un centre en retrait de Matko. 1-2 : la Slov\u00e9nie passe seule deuxi\u00e8me, sept points contre quatre, et l&#8217;\u00c9cosse encaisse deux d\u00e9faites de suite \u00e0 domicile pour la premi\u00e8re fois depuis 2019.<\/p>\n<p>Mon pari couvrait la victoire slov\u00e8ne et le nul, et le nul n&#8217;a pas servi. Je lisais une \u00c9cosse priv\u00e9e de cinq hommes que le march\u00e9 suivait quand m\u00eame \u00e0 1,80 ; la Slov\u00e9nie patiente l&#8217;a pass\u00e9e devant au classement comme au score. Double chance Slov\u00e9nie ou nul \u00e0 2,00 chez Bet365, une demi-unit\u00e9 : 50 $ de gain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Slov\u00e9nie est venue gagner \u00e0 Hampden (1-2) et prend seule la deuxi\u00e8me place. Mon pari Slov\u00e9nie ou nul \u00e0 2,00 est gagn\u00e9 (+50 $), sans m\u00eame avoir besoin du nul.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5527,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic \u00c9cosse-Slov\u00e9nie : je prends la Slov\u00e9nie ou le nul \u00e0 2,00 face \u00e0 une \u00c9cosse priv\u00e9e de cinq hommes. Analyse, cotes et mise.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"\u00c9cosse","ba_away_name":"Slov\u00e9nie","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-06 18:45:00","ba_venue":"Hampden Park Stadium","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1545657","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pwcr8yqhc1u","author_id":4,"market":"Double chance","selection":"Slov\u00e9nie ou nul","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"dc","selection_key":"x2","line":null,"odds":2,"stake_units":0.5,"stake_amount":50,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":50,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-04 09:53:00","settled_at":"2026-10-06 20:45:05","probability":0.54,"p_market":0.4788,"p_used":0.5094,"edge":0.0188,"market_margin":0.0632,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":1.95,"p_close":0.4993,"clv":-0.0014,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-4684","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u00c9cosse &#8211; Slov\u00e9nie : la deuxi\u00e8me place en jeu, l&#8217;\u00c9cosse priv\u00e9e de cinq hommes &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic \u00c9cosse-Slov\u00e9nie : je prends la Slov\u00e9nie ou le nul \u00e0 2,00 face \u00e0 une \u00c9cosse priv\u00e9e de cinq hommes. 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