{"id":4999,"date":"2026-10-05T11:36:39","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T09:36:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/estonie-islande-pronostic-2026-10-06\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T23:24:11","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T21:24:11","slug":"estonie-islande-pronostic-2026-10-06","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-des-nations\/estonie-islande-pronostic-2026-10-06\/","title":{"rendered":"Estonie &#8211; Islande : la leader voyage sans ses cr\u00e9ateurs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le 26 septembre, l&#8217;Estonie est sortie de Reykjav\u00edk avec un 1-1. Depuis, l&#8217;Islande a empil\u00e9 un 3-0 au Luxembourg puis un 3-0 contre la Bulgarie, et le march\u00e9 l&#8217;a durcie de 1,73 \u00e0 1,65, avant un l\u00e9ger retour \u00e0 1,67 ce lundi. Cette forme-l\u00e0, je ne la conteste pas. Je joue ce que l&#8217;Islande laisse \u00e0 la maison : mardi \u00e0 Tallinn, elle voyage sans une partie de ce qui la fait gagner, et son bilan \u00e0 l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur dans cette comp\u00e9tition ne la prot\u00e8ge pas, sept d\u00e9placements de phase de groupe perdus sur onze.<\/p>\n<h2>Cinq buts islandais sur sept passent par \u00d3skarsson<\/h2>\n<p>Cinq des sept buts islandais de la fen\u00eatre ont \u00d3skarsson au bout : trois buts, deux passes. Autour de lui, la feuille de match s&#8217;est d\u00e9chir\u00e9e :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Mikael Egill Ellertsson, suspendu apr\u00e8s son deuxi\u00e8me jaune contre la Bulgarie, ne fait pas le <a href=\"https:\/\/www.visir.is\/g\/20262943574d\/arnar-bregst-vid-banni-og-meidslum-thrir-nyir-med-landslidinu-til-tallinn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">voyage \u00e0 Tallinn<\/a> ;<\/li>\n<li>Albert Gu\u00f0mundsson, bless\u00e9 depuis le premier match, et Stef\u00e1n Teitur \u00de\u00f3r\u00f0arson, bless\u00e9 depuis le Luxembourg, non plus ;<\/li>\n<li>Gylfi \u00de\u00f3r Sigur\u00f0sson, touch\u00e9 aux c\u00f4tes contre la Bulgarie, est <a href=\"https:\/\/www.visir.is\/g\/20262943490d\/gylfi-sarkvalinn-missti-andann-og-fer-i-myndatoku\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pass\u00e9 au scanner<\/a> : son s\u00e9lectionneur juge sa pr\u00e9sence improbable, une partie de la presse le croit pourtant titulaire ;<\/li>\n<li>quatre renforts ont \u00e9t\u00e9 convoqu\u00e9s pour boucher les trous : Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason, Alfons Sampsted, S\u00e6var Atli Magn\u00fasson et \u00de\u00f3rir J\u00f3hann Helgason, appel\u00e9 pour pallier Albert Gu\u00f0mundsson.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Un jeu qui passe par un seul homme se d\u00e9fend avec un plan : doublez sur lui, coupez les passes vers lui. Priv\u00e9e de ses autres cr\u00e9ateurs, l&#8217;Islande devient plus facile \u00e0 lire pour un bloc bas qui tient.<\/p>\n<h2>L&#8217;Estonie marque t\u00f4t et ferme la porte<\/h2>\n<p>Cinq matchs sans d\u00e9faite, quatre fois sans encaisser, trois victoires de rang \u00e0 domicile. Vendredi contre le Luxembourg, Rasmus Peetson a marqu\u00e9 t\u00f4t et fini <a href=\"https:\/\/jalgpall.ee\/koondis\/1\/uudised\/eesti-koondise-parimaks-luksemburgi-vastu-valiti-rasmus-peetson-n26458\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">homme du match de sa f\u00e9d\u00e9ration<\/a> (1-0). Le plan estonien ne va pas changer : marquer t\u00f4t, tenir derri\u00e8re, laisser l&#8217;adversaire courir apr\u00e8s.<\/p>\n<p>Le capitaine Karol Mets, suspendu, manque \u00e0 la charni\u00e8re ; Erko Jonne T\u00f5ugjas est candidat pour le remplacer. Selon la presse, le gardien Karl Hein a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsmole.co.uk\/football\/estonia\/uefa-nations-league\/preview\/estonia-vs-iceland-prediction-team-news-lineups_606234.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">quitt\u00e9 le groupe<\/a> samedi, touch\u00e9 aux adducteurs, et le milieu Vlasiy Sinyavskiy est indisponible : <a href=\"https:\/\/balticfootballnews.com\/karl-jakob-hein-leaves-estonia-squad-with-adductor-injury\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Evert Gr\u00fcnvald a \u00e9t\u00e9 convoqu\u00e9<\/a> en renfort. La feuille officielle a confirm\u00e9 la charni\u00e8re remani\u00e9e : T\u00f5ugjas d\u00e9bute, et Matvei Igonen, sorti inviol\u00e9 face au Luxembourg, gardera les buts. C\u00f4t\u00e9 islandais, \u00d3skarsson et Gu\u00f0johnsen m\u00e8nent l&#8217;attaque.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00ab Les Estoniens ont la recette contre l&#8217;Islande \u00bb<\/h2>\n<p>C&#8217;est le consultant K\u00e1ri \u00c1rnason qui le dit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.visir.is\/g\/20262943479d\/-eistar-eru-med-uppskriftina-gegn-islandi-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dans la presse islandaise<\/a>, et les deux seules confrontations entre ces \u00e9quipes lui donnent raison : 1-1 la semaine derni\u00e8re en Islande, 1-1 en amical en 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Un nul arrange d&#8217;ailleurs l&#8217;Islande au classement : sept points contre cinq avant le coup d&#8217;envoi, huit contre six apr\u00e8s. La leader n&#8217;a pas besoin de forcer le match, et c&#8217;est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment ce que le pari couvre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le pari : Estonie ou nul \u00e0 2,375<\/h2>\n<p>Je donne 47 % \u00e0 l&#8217;Estonie ou au nul. \u00c0 2,375 chez Bet365, la cote en affiche \u00e0 peine plus de deux sur cinq, et elle a d\u00e9riv\u00e9 de 2,20 : le march\u00e9 croit l&#8217;Islande davantage qu&#8217;\u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture. C&#8217;est cette confiance que je joue contre.<\/p>\n<p>La double chance couvre le nul, le r\u00e9sultat que les deux s\u00e9ries dessinent le mieux. Mise : 1 unit\u00e9 (100 $). L&#8217;Estonie gagne ou accroche : +137,50 $. L&#8217;Islande gagne : &#8722;100 $. La mise est calcul\u00e9e au plus pr\u00e8s du risque, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> la refait avec vous ; le pari rejoindra <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">mon bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Le deuxi\u00e8me nul d&#8217;affil\u00e9e entre les deux<\/h2>\n<p>Aucun but \u00e0 Tallinn, et l&#8217;Islande amoindrie ne s&#8217;en est jamais approch\u00e9e : 62 % de possession, deux tirs cadr\u00e9s, une frappe de Haraldsson \u00e0 la 82e et une de Willumsson dans le temps additionnel. L&#8217;Estonie, regroup\u00e9e en 3-5-2 devant Igonen, a jou\u00e9 les coups de pied arr\u00eat\u00e9s et rien d&#8217;autre, et cela a suffi. 0-0 : apr\u00e8s le 1-1 de Reykjav\u00edk, ces deux \u00e9quipes ne se d\u00e9partagent toujours pas, et l&#8217;Islande garde la premi\u00e8re place (huit points), l&#8217;Estonie la deuxi\u00e8me (six).<\/p>\n<p>Mon pari couvrait l&#8217;Estonie et le nul : c&#8217;est le nul qui l&#8217;a fait passer. La double chance \u00e0 2,375 chez Bet365 rapporte 137,50 $ pour une unit\u00e9. Je jouais contre un march\u00e9 plus confiant en l&#8217;Islande qu&#8217;\u00e0 l&#8217;ouverture ; cette Islande-l\u00e0 n&#8217;a jamais trouv\u00e9 la faille d&#8217;un bloc qui n&#8217;a presque rien conc\u00e9d\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deuxi\u00e8me nul d&#8217;affil\u00e9e entre les deux \u00e9quipes (0-0) : l&#8217;Islande reste leader, l&#8217;Estonie deuxi\u00e8me. Mon pari Estonie ou nul \u00e0 2,375 gagne (+137,50 $, une unit\u00e9).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5537,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Estonie &#8211; Islande : l&#8217;Islande favorite mais d\u00e9cim\u00e9e, l&#8217;Estonie invaincue depuis cinq matchs. Double chance 1X \u00e0 2,375, mise 1 unit\u00e9.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Estonie","ba_away_name":"Islande","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-06 18:45:00","ba_venue":"A. Le Coq Arena","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1528957","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pvxltwbjjhg","author_id":4,"market":"Double chance","selection":"Estonie ou nul (1X)","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"dc","selection_key":"1x","line":null,"odds":2.375,"stake_units":1,"stake_amount":100,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":137.5,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-05 09:37:18","settled_at":"2026-10-06 20:45:05","probability":0.47,"p_market":0.4235,"p_used":0.4468,"edge":0.061,"market_margin":0.0633,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":2.432,"p_close":0.4055,"clv":-0.0369,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,45],"class_list":["post-4999","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-des-nations"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Estonie &#8211; Islande : la leader voyage sans ses cr\u00e9ateurs &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Estonie &#8211; Islande : l&#8217;Islande favorite mais d\u00e9cim\u00e9e, l&#8217;Estonie invaincue depuis cinq matchs. 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