{"id":5215,"date":"2026-10-05T20:38:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T18:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/toulon-racing-92-pronostic-2026-10-10\/"},"modified":"2026-10-10T19:14:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T17:14:57","slug":"toulon-racing-92-pronostic-2026-10-10","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rugby\/top-14\/toulon-racing-92-pronostic-2026-10-10\/","title":{"rendered":"Toulon &#8211; Racing 92 : une victoire en cinq journ\u00e9es, et toujours 1,25 \u00e0 Mayol"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dimanche soir \u00e0 La Mosson, Toulon est rentr\u00e9 sans marquer : 28-0. Cinq jours plus tard, le march\u00e9 le cote encore plus bas qu&#8217;\u00e0 la prise : 1,25 chez Betway jeudi soir, pour recevoir <a href=\"https:\/\/top14.lnr.fr\/feuille-de-match\/2026-2027\/j6\/11859-toulon-racing-92\/face-a-face\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">le Racing<\/a>. Une victoire en cinq journ\u00e9es, treizi\u00e8me place, huit points : le prix ne suit pas la pente.<\/p>\n<h2>Mignoni parti, et Mayol pay\u00e9 d&#8217;avance<\/h2>\n<p>Toulon a gagn\u00e9 un seul match cette saison : 28-10 contre Vannes le 26 septembre, avec le bonus offensif. Le reste, quatre d\u00e9faites, dont la plus lourde dimanche. Sur <a href=\"https:\/\/www.blog-rct.com\/touche-ballons-perdus-jeu-collectif-luca-licata-dresse-un-constat-inquietant-sur-le-rct\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BFM Toulon<\/a>, Luca Licata d\u00e9crit un collectif \u00ab inqui\u00e9tant \u00bb, des touches et des ballons perdus. Deux jours plus tard, le directeur du rugby a quitt\u00e9 ses fonctions : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugbyrama.fr\/2026\/10\/06\/top-14-toulon-pierre-mignoni-fait-le-choix-de-quitter-ses-fonctions-de-directeur-du-rugby-du-rct-franck-azema-aux-commandes-13586439.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pierre Mignoni, parti le 6 octobre<\/a>, et Franck Az\u00e9ma prend le groupe. Le premier groupe du nouveau patron, annonc\u00e9 jeudi, fait le m\u00e9nage : neuf entr\u00e9es, huit sorties ; Baubigny, Cancoriet, Gigashvili, Ludlam, Brex et Huw Jones reviennent, Jaminet n&#8217;y figure pas. L&#8217;infirmerie reste charg\u00e9e :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Slimani, fracture au pouce \u00e0 Castres, plusieurs semaines ;<\/li>\n<li>Frisch, mollet, reprise du collectif la semaine prochaine ;<\/li>\n<li>Abadie et Swan Rebbadj, au repos apr\u00e8s des commotions ;<\/li>\n<li>Villi\u00e8re, Domon, Dr\u00e9an, Halagahu et Priso, en r\u00e9athl\u00e9tisation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Un staff de transition, un groupe chamboul\u00e9 : Mayol ne gagne pas les matchs tout seul, et l&#8217;\u00e9quipe qui l&#8217;occupe est treizi\u00e8me.<\/p>\n<h2>Le Racing a marqu\u00e9 huit essais samedi<\/h2>\n<p>Le Racing 92, dixi\u00e8me, dix points, vient de battre Perpignan 55-25 \u00e0 Cr\u00e9teil, huit essais, bonus offensif. Dehors, tout et son contraire : 5-64 \u00e0 Bordeaux en ouverture, puis 20-10 gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 La Rochelle. La <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rugby-addict.com\/fr\/news\/top-14\/racing-92\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">presse parisienne<\/a> voit une \u00e9quipe qui \u00ab reprend des couleurs \u00bb. Patrice Collazo revient \u00e0 Mayol, lui qui a entra\u00een\u00e9 le RCT de 2018 \u00e0 2021 : le personnage anime la semaine, j&#8217;en attends rien de calculable. Son groupe pour Mayol n&#8217;est pas encore annonc\u00e9 au vendredi : rien \u00e0 en tirer pour l&#8217;analyse.<\/p>\n<h2>Cinq jours de r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration contre sept<\/h2>\n<p>Toulon a jou\u00e9 dimanche \u00e0 21h05, le Racing samedi : cinq jours pour se remettre, contre sept, avec une touche qui vient de l\u00e2cher \u00e0 La Mosson. Et apr\u00e8s cette sixi\u00e8me journ\u00e9e, le championnat s&#8217;arr\u00eate : le Racing encha\u00eene \u00e0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.racing92.fr\/calendrier\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Munster<\/a> en Champions Cup le 17 octobre, Toulon respire. Les cinq derniers matchs des deux \u00e9quipes :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Terrain<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>26\/09<\/td>\n<td>Toulon &#8211; Vannes<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 domicile<\/td>\n<td>28-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>04\/10<\/td>\n<td>Montpellier &#8211; Toulon<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>28-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>03\/10<\/td>\n<td>Racing 92 &#8211; Perpignan<\/td>\n<td>\u00e0 domicile<\/td>\n<td>55-25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J1<\/td>\n<td>Bordeaux &#8211; Racing 92<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>64-5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J3<\/td>\n<td>La Rochelle &#8211; Racing 92<\/td>\n<td>ext\u00e9rieur<\/td>\n<td>10-20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Mon pari : Racing 92 +9,5 \u00e0 1,80<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 1,25, le vainqueur sec toulonnais ne rapporte rien ; \u00e0 4,50, un Racing gagnant me demande un exploit ext\u00e9rieur que ses voyages ne justifient pas encore. Je garde la marge prise le 5 octobre : Racing 92 +9,5 \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365. Le Racing gagne, fait nul ou perd de neuf points ou moins : pari gagn\u00e9, 20 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s. Il perd de dix points ou plus : pari perdu.<\/p>\n<p>Je donne 56 % de chances au Racing de rester dans le match ; \u00e0 1,80, le march\u00e9 en donnait un peu plus de 55 \u00e0 la prise. Depuis, la ligne principale est rendue \u00e0 &#8722;10,5 et mon +9,5 s&#8217;affiche 1,85 chez Unibet : le march\u00e9 a durci vers Toulon, le pari ne gagne pas en valeur. Deux r\u00e9serves, dites franchement : la marge de ce march\u00e9 reste sal\u00e9e, et une fois ma probabilit\u00e9 confront\u00e9e \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9, l&#8217;avantage net dispara\u00eet. D&#8217;o\u00f9 la mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9 (25 $), sans croire au cadeau. Ajustez la mise \u00e0 votre bankroll avec le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> et suivez mes pronostics sur le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>29-15 : Albornoz a fait le reste au pied<\/h2>\n<p>Toulon s&#8217;impose 29-15 \u00e0 Mayol, sa premi\u00e8re victoire depuis le d\u00e9part de Pierre Mignoni. Le RCT a eu chaud : un d\u00e9but de match compliqu\u00e9 et indisciplin\u00e9, puis les essais de Gros (15e) et Baubigny (27e) ont pris les devants ; Gibert r\u00e9pondait pour le Racing \u00e0 la 30e, 14-7 \u00e0 la pause. En seconde p\u00e9riode, Albornoz a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 le match au pied : cinq p\u00e9nalit\u00e9s, et l&#8217;essai de Hughes (71e) est arriv\u00e9 trop tard.<\/p>\n<p>Mon Racing 92 +9,5 \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365 est perdu de 4,5 points. Le Racing a tenu la ligne jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 l&#8217;heure de jeu : 17-10 \u00e0 la 55e, avant que la botte d&#8217;Albornoz ne fasse c\u00e9der l&#8217;\u00e9cart (23-10 \u00e0 la 63e, 26-10 \u00e0 la 68e). Des occasions laiss\u00e9es passer c\u00f4t\u00e9 francilien, un Toulon courageux : la mise \u00e9tait minimale, 25 $, sans croire au cadeau. Elle est perdue, et le bilan l&#8217;inscrit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Toulon gagne 29-15 : essais de Gros et Baubigny, cinq p\u00e9nalit\u00e9s d&#8217;Albornoz, et mon Racing 92 +9,5 \u00e0 1,80 c\u00e8de apr\u00e8s l&#8217;heure de jeu. 25 $ perdus, mise minimale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":6924,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Toulon \u2013 Racing 92 (Top 14, J6) : mon pronostic et mon analyse. Je prends Racing 92 +9,5 \u00e0 1,80 chez Bet365, mise minimale 25 $.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"RC Toulonnais","ba_away_name":"Racing 92","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-10 14:35:00","ba_venue":"","ba_match_key":"api-sports:rugby:54117","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pcznfnzkbol","author_id":8,"market":"Handicap (\u00e9cart)","selection":"Racing 92 +9,5","bookmaker":"Bet365","market_key":"spread","selection_key":"away","line":9.5,"odds":1.8,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":20,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"lost","recorded_at":"2026-10-05 18:38:45","settled_at":"2026-10-10 16:30:12","probability":0.56,"p_market":0.5135,"p_used":0.5368,"edge":-0.0338,"market_margin":0.0819,"market_books":1,"closing_odds":1.8,"p_close":0.5283,"clv":-0.0491,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[39,100],"class_list":["post-5215","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-rugby","ba_sport-top-14"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Toulon &#8211; Racing 92 : une victoire en cinq journ\u00e9es, et toujours 1,25 \u00e0 Mayol &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Toulon \u2013 Racing 92 (Top 14, J6) : mon pronostic et mon analyse. 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