{"id":5929,"date":"2026-10-07T20:50:03","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T18:50:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/manchester-united-tottenham-pronostic-2026-10-10\/"},"modified":"2026-10-10T21:13:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T19:13:34","slug":"manchester-united-tottenham-pronostic-2026-10-10","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/premier-league\/manchester-united-tottenham-pronostic-2026-10-10\/","title":{"rendered":"Manchester United &#8211; Tottenham : les tirs d&#8217;un c\u00f4t\u00e9, la disette de l&#8217;autre"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c0 Old Trafford, le douzi\u00e8me de Premier League re\u00e7oit le dernier. Manchester United a pris plus de tirs que toute autre \u00e9quipe du championnat et n&#8217;en tire que cinq points ; Tottenham a marqu\u00e9 deux buts en cinq journ\u00e9es, les deux dans les derni\u00e8res minutes du match perdu contre Aston Villa. Un favori qui ne convertit pas, un outsider qui ne marque plus : les buts peuvent se faire rares samedi soir.<\/p>\n<h2>Le volume de tirs ne se transforme pas en points<\/h2>\n<p>Rien \u00e0 dire sur la cr\u00e9ation : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rotowire.com\/soccer\/article\/manchester-united-vs-tottenham-prediction-predicted-lineups-team-news-139322\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">personne ne tire plus que ce United en Premier League<\/a>. Le probl\u00e8me se joue devant le but : une victoire en championnat, la douzi\u00e8me place, une attaque amput\u00e9e. \u0160e\u0161ko (tibia), Ugarte (genou, LCA op\u00e9r\u00e9), Heaton, De Ligt (dos), Dorgu (ischio) et Mazraoui sont forfaits. Le onze officiel est tomb\u00e9 : Lammens dans le but, Yoro, Maguire, Lisandro Mart\u00ednez et Shaw en d\u00e9fense, Tielemans et Mainoo au milieu. Diallo (incertain cette semaine), Bruno Fernandes et Mbeumo entourent Matheus Cunha, seul en pointe. Rashford et la recrue Carlos Baleba ne d\u00e9butent pas.<\/p>\n<p>Le calendrier n&#8217;aide pas : United s&#8217;est qualifi\u00e9 pour la Ligue des champions en terminant troisi\u00e8me la saison pass\u00e9e, vingt matchs de plus au programme que des Spurs sans coupe d&#8217;Europe.<\/p>\n<h2>Tottenham descend sans ses cr\u00e9ateurs<\/h2>\n<p>Z\u00e9ro victoire, deux points, deux buts : le Tottenham de De Zerbi, pourtant reb\u00e2ti pour plus de 300 millions de livres, occupe la derni\u00e8re place. L&#8217;infirmerie vide le secteur offensif :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Xavi Simons (genou) : retour annonc\u00e9 pour fin janvier.<\/li>\n<li>Wilson Odobert (genou) : hors du groupe pour plusieurs mois.<\/li>\n<li>Mykhailo Mudryk (cheville) : reprise vis\u00e9e fin octobre.<\/li>\n<li>Pedro Porro (ischio) : pas de retour complet \u00e0 l&#8217;entra\u00eenement, Gray tient le flanc droit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Kulusevski, apr\u00e8s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.football.london\/tottenham-hotspur-fc\/news\/spurs-injury-news-manchester-united-34720925\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">plus de 500 jours d&#8217;absence<\/a> et un onze contre onze \u00e0 l&#8217;entra\u00eenement pendant la tr\u00eave, ne d\u00e9bute pas. La feuille officielle a tranch\u00e9 derri\u00e8re : Van Hecke (pied) est titulaire, Van de Ven (main) reste dehors, Senesi l&#8217;accompagne dans l&#8217;axe, Kinsk\u00fd dans le but et Udogie \u00e0 gauche. Devant, Tonali et Bergvall au milieu, S\u00e1vio, Gallagher et Kudus derri\u00e8re Solanke, seul en pointe. Sur les cinq derniers matchs, les Spurs ont fini trois fois sans marquer.<\/p>\n<h2>United garde la main sur les confrontations<\/h2>\n<p>Les cinq derniers matchs de chaque \u00e9quipe, toutes comp\u00e9titions :<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Date<\/th>\n<th>Match<\/th>\n<th>Comp\u00e9tition<\/th>\n<th>Score<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>20\/09<\/td>\n<td>Fulham &#8211; MU<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>16\/09<\/td>\n<td>MU &#8211; Brighton<\/td>\n<td>League Cup<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>13\/09<\/td>\n<td>MU &#8211; Manchester City<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10\/09<\/td>\n<td>MU &#8211; Sabah FA<\/td>\n<td>Ligue des champions<\/td>\n<td>4-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>06\/09<\/td>\n<td>Everton &#8211; MU<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>19\/09<\/td>\n<td>Tottenham &#8211; Aston Villa<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>15\/09<\/td>\n<td>Liverpool &#8211; Tottenham<\/td>\n<td>League Cup<\/td>\n<td>3-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>12\/09<\/td>\n<td>Tottenham &#8211; Everton<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>05\/09<\/td>\n<td>Nottingham Forest &#8211; Tottenham<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>0-0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>29\/08<\/td>\n<td>Tottenham &#8211; Newcastle<\/td>\n<td>Premier League<\/td>\n<td>0-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Sur les <a href=\"https:\/\/tips.gg\/article\/manchester-united-vs-tottenham-hotspur-head-to-head-10-10-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trente derni\u00e8res confrontations<\/a>, United m\u00e8ne 13 victoires \u00e0 11, avec six nuls. Le dernier duel, en f\u00e9vrier, s&#8217;est achev\u00e9 2-0 pour United ; les Spurs n&#8217;ont plus gagn\u00e9 \u00e0 Old Trafford depuis leur 3-0 de septembre 2024.<\/p>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,76, le favori n&#8217;offre pas de marge<\/h2>\n<p>MU s&#8217;affiche \u00e0 1,76 chez 1xbet ce vendredi, le nul \u00e0 4,31, Tottenham \u00e0 4,67 : seule la cote des Spurs a gliss\u00e9 depuis l&#8217;ouverture (4,75). Le handicap principal, United -0,75, cote 1,85. Le march\u00e9 croit \u00e0 la victoire mancunienne, sans y mettre le prix d&#8217;un carton, et attend un match \u00e0 trois buts : la ligne principale des totaux est \u00e0 3,25.<\/p>\n<h2>Moins de 3,5 buts \u00e0 1,712 : 1,25 unit\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Je monte d&#8217;un cran au-dessus de la ligne principale : moins de 3,5 buts \u00e0 1,712 chez 1xbet, la m\u00eame cote qu&#8217;\u00e0 mon enregistrement mercredi soir. Le sc\u00e9nario gagnant tient en une phrase : United monopolise le ballon, convertit une ou deux occasions, Tottenham tient son bloc sans marquer, et le total s&#8217;arr\u00eate \u00e0 trois buts ou moins. Je donne 64 % \u00e0 ce total ; le march\u00e9 en donne 57. Les trente derniers duels tournent \u00e0 2,83 buts par match : la ligne \u00e0 2,5 exigerait un match tr\u00e8s ferm\u00e9, celle \u00e0 3,5 laisse vivre un match normal.<\/p>\n<p>Le sc\u00e9nario perdant garde son poids : la d\u00e9fense de United a encaiss\u00e9 sept buts sur les cinq derniers matchs, toutes comp\u00e9titions, et l&#8217;axe des Spurs jouera sans Van de Ven, Senesi aux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de Van Hecke. Une charni\u00e8re remani\u00e9e face \u00e0 une \u00e9quipe qui tire autant rel\u00e8ve le plafond de buts. Les compositions ne renversent rien de ma lecture : 64 %, pas davantage.<\/p>\n<p>La mise : 1,25 unit\u00e9, soit 125 $. De z\u00e9ro \u00e0 trois buts au total, le pari rapporte 89 $ nets ; \u00e0 partir de quatre buts, les 125 $ sont perdus. Elle sort du <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a>, pas de mon envie, et son r\u00e9sultat ira dans mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagnant ou perdant. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>1-1 : deux buts, aucun de trop<\/h2>\n<p>Il a fallu 73 minutes pour voir le score bouger : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.skysports.com\/football\/manchester-united-vs-tottenham-hotspur\/report\/559502\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mbeumo a ouvert pour United<\/a> apr\u00e8s une combinaison avec Cunha. Bentancur a vu le rouge \u00e0 la 78e pour un coup de t\u00eate sur Shaw, et Solanke a \u00e9galis\u00e9 dans le temps additionnel (90+2) : 1-1. United est reparti sous les sifflets, une victoire en six journ\u00e9es de championnat ; le point sort Tottenham de la derni\u00e8re place, pas de la zone de rel\u00e9gation, toujours sans succ\u00e8s en Premier League depuis mai.<\/p>\n<p>Pour le pari, le total n&#8217;a jamais \u00e9t\u00e9 en danger : 1-0 \u00e0 la 90e minute, deux buts au coup de sifflet final. Le moins de 3,5 buts, pris \u00e0 1,712 chez 1xbet avec 1,25 unit\u00e9 (125 $), rapporte donc les 89 $ annonc\u00e9s. Mon sc\u00e9nario laissait Tottenham muet : les Spurs l&#8217;ont \u00e9t\u00e9 92 minutes, avant d&#8217;\u00e9galiser en inf\u00e9riorit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>1-1 \u00e0 Old Trafford : Mbeumo a ouvert \u00e0 la 73e, Solanke a \u00e9galis\u00e9 \u00e0 dix dans le temps additionnel. Deux buts : mon moins de 3,5 buts \u00e0 1,712 gagne 89 $ pour 125 $ mis\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7023,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Manchester United \u2013 Tottenham : le favori tire beaucoup et marque peu, Tottenham reste muet. Mon pari : moins de 3,5 buts \u00e0 1,712, 1,25 unit\u00e9.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Manchester United","ba_away_name":"Tottenham","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-10 16:30:00","ba_venue":"Old Trafford","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1557425","ba_featured":true,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"p1qoo4052jl","author_id":4,"market":"Moins de buts","selection":"Moins de 3,5 buts","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"totals","selection_key":"under","line":3.5,"odds":1.712,"stake_units":1.25,"stake_amount":125,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":89,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-07 18:50:15","settled_at":"2026-10-10 18:30:10","probability":0.64,"p_market":0.5736,"p_used":0.6068,"edge":0.0388,"market_margin":0.0619,"market_books":9,"closing_odds":1.753,"p_close":0.5651,"clv":-0.0325,"stake_rule":"kelly"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,70],"class_list":["post-5929","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-premier-league"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Manchester United &#8211; Tottenham : les tirs d&#8217;un c\u00f4t\u00e9, la disette de l&#8217;autre &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pronostic Manchester United \u2013 Tottenham : le favori tire beaucoup et marque peu, Tottenham reste muet. 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