{"id":6289,"date":"2026-10-08T21:14:17","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T19:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/rennes-auxerre-laja-a-cinq-absents-deux-visites-sans-perdre-au-roazhon-park\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T10:18:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T08:18:50","slug":"rennes-auxerre-pronostic-2026-10-11","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-1\/rennes-auxerre-pronostic-2026-10-11\/","title":{"rendered":"Rennes &#8211; Auxerre : l&#8217;AJA \u00e0 sept absents, deux visites sans perdre au Roazhon Park"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le 19 septembre, Rennes a encaiss\u00e9 quatre buts \u00e0 Lyon sans en marquer. Deux semaines plus tard, l&#8217;\u00e9quipe perdait un amical \u00e0 Laval (0-1) et Franck Haise en sortait agac\u00e9 par la premi\u00e8re p\u00e9riode : certains joueurs, a-t-il pr\u00e9venu, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footenfrance.fr\/Stade-Rennais-Haise-agace-certains-joueurs-joueront-gros-face-a-l-AJ-Auxerre_a4112.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">joueront gros face \u00e0 l&#8217;AJA<\/a>. Le rival du dimanche temp\u00e8re l&#8217;optimisme du Roazhon Park : Auxerre ne s&#8217;y est pas perdu sur ses deux derni\u00e8res visites, un 2-2 en octobre 2025, une victoire 1-0 en avril 2025.<\/p>\n<h2>Trois victoires de rang, toutes \u00e0 domicile<\/h2>\n<p>Le classement donne Rennes cinqui\u00e8me et Auxerre onzi\u00e8me ; la forme r\u00e9cente rapproche les deux. Will Still a redress\u00e9 une \u00e9quipe partie sur trois d\u00e9faites : l&#8217;AJA a gagn\u00e9 ses trois derniers matchs, Nice et Brest en Ligue 1, Clermont en amical, les trois \u00e0 domicile. Ses deux d\u00e9placements de championnat, \u00e0 Lens et \u00e0 Lyon, se sont tous les deux sold\u00e9s en d\u00e9faite. Le m\u00eame Lyon qui avait battu Auxerre 3-1 le 4 septembre a mis quatre buts \u00e0 Rennes le 19. Les Rennais, eux, n&#8217;ont plus marqu\u00e9 depuis leur 1-0 contre Marseille : trois matchs sans but, toutes comp\u00e9titions confondues.<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Forme<\/th>\n<th>Rennes<\/th>\n<th>Auxerre<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Dernier<\/td>\n<td>D\u00e9faite 1-0 \u00e0 Laval, amical (02\/10)<\/td>\n<td>Victoire 4-3 contre Clermont, amical (02\/10)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent<\/td>\n<td>D\u00e9faite 4-0 \u00e0 Lyon, Ligue 1 (19\/09)<\/td>\n<td>Victoire 2-1 contre Brest, Ligue 1 (20\/09)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent<\/td>\n<td>Nul 0-0 contre Sturm Graz, Ligue Europa (16\/09)<\/td>\n<td>Victoire 1-0 contre Nice, Ligue 1 (12\/09)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent<\/td>\n<td>Victoire 1-0 contre Marseille, Ligue 1 (11\/09)<\/td>\n<td>D\u00e9faite 3-1 \u00e0 Lyon, Ligue 1 (04\/09)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Plus ancien<\/td>\n<td>Victoire 2-1 \u00e0 Angers, Ligue 1 (06\/09)<\/td>\n<td>D\u00e9faite 3-1 contre Angers, Ligue 1 (29\/08)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>Sept absents c\u00f4t\u00e9 AJA, le retour de Lepaul c\u00f4t\u00e9 Rennes<\/h2>\n<p>La <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sport.fr\/football\/ligue-1-compos-probables-pour-rennes-auxerre-dimanche-a-17h15-avec-lepaul-en-pointe-et-sept-absents-cote-auxerrois-1488552.shtm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">liste des absents s&#8217;est allong\u00e9e<\/a> : Auxerre se d\u00e9place sans sept joueurs.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Makosso, suspendu (accumulation de cartons) ;<\/li>\n<li>Diouss\u00e9, crois\u00e9s rompus au genou mi-ao\u00fbt ;<\/li>\n<li>Okoh, m\u00eame articulation, indisponible depuis mai ;<\/li>\n<li>Senaya et Siwe, ischio-jambiers, retours esp\u00e9r\u00e9s vers le 20 octobre ;<\/li>\n<li>Fofana (aine) et Mandengue (adducteurs), les deux derniers forfaits en date.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Le milieu \u00e0 deux des pronostics devient un milieu \u00e0 trois : Ahamada accompagne Danois et Piedfort, et sans Diouss\u00e9 ni Fofana, la premi\u00e8re relance auxerroise change encore de mains ; je m&#8217;attends \u00e0 voir Rennes monter son bloc sur cette relance r\u00e9duite. En face, Franck Haise titularise Lepaul, incertain toute la semaine et <a href=\"https:\/\/www.topmercato.com\/2145830-pronostic-rennes-vs-auxerre-11-10-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">finalement disponible<\/a>, avec Tamari et Soumar\u00e9 autour de lui ; Djaoui Ciss\u00e9, g\u00ean\u00e9 \u00e0 l&#8217;aine, commence sur le banc.<\/p>\n<h2>Ce que dit le prix : 1,48, et pas de marge \u00e0 prendre<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 aligne Rennes \u00e0 1,48 chez 1xbet, le nul \u00e0 5,14, Auxerre \u00e0 7,00 chez Bet365, et ces cotes n&#8217;ont pas boug\u00e9 depuis leur ouverture mercredi. La liste auxerroise s&#8217;est allong\u00e9e de deux noms depuis : la cote n&#8217;a pas suivi, le prix avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 compt\u00e9 l&#8217;infirmerie. \u00c0 1,48, le pari s&#8217;\u00e9quilibre si Rennes gagne 67,6 % du temps. Je lui en donne 67 : le march\u00e9 a fait ses comptes.<\/p>\n<h2>Le pari : Rennes vainqueur, mise minimale<\/h2>\n<p>Je prends Rennes vainqueur \u00e0 1,48 chez 1xbet : victoire rennaise, +12 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s ; nul ou succ\u00e8s auxerrois, pari perdu (&#8722;25 $). La mise est minimale, un quart d&#8217;unit\u00e9 : \u00e0 67 % contre 67,6 %, je n&#8217;ai pas d&#8217;avantage sur ce prix et je ne grossis pas une cote de favori bien \u00e9valu\u00e9e. Le dimensionnement passe par le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> ; ce pari entrera au <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, quel qu&#8217;en soit le r\u00e9sultat. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Lepaul ouvre de loin, Dia referme : Rennes retrouve le chemin du but<\/h2>\n<p>Score final : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.footmercato.net\/live\/6450125648317561046-rennes-vs-auxerre\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rennes 4-1 Auxerre<\/a>, apr\u00e8s une mi-temps en \u00e9quilibre (1-1). Lepaul a ouvert le score \u00e0 la 15e, d&#8217;une reprise de l&#8217;ext\u00e9rieur du droit depuis l&#8217;entr\u00e9e de la surface : son 34e but en Ligue 1, et le premier qu&#8217;il y inscrit de loin. Archer a \u00e9galis\u00e9 \u00e0 la 25e, lanc\u00e9 par son propre gardien. Thomasson a fait basculer le match \u00e0 la 53e, d&#8217;une t\u00eate au second poteau, et Dia a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 le score par deux fois dans le temps additionnel (90+2, 90+4), le premier lanc\u00e9 par Blas. Les trois matchs sans but appartenaient \u00e0 la semaine pass\u00e9e : 21 tirs dont 11 cadr\u00e9s, 58 % de possession. Le troisi\u00e8me d\u00e9placement auxerrois de la saison finit comme les deux premiers, \u00e0 Lens et \u00e0 Lyon : par une d\u00e9faite. Rennes grimpe sur le podium, treize points.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari suit son sc\u00e9nario : Rennes vainqueur \u00e0 1,48 chez 1xbet, mise minimale d&#8217;un quart d&#8217;unit\u00e9, +12 $ pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s. Je n&#8217;avais pas d&#8217;avantage sur ce prix, le texte le disait, et la mise minimale a fait son office : douze dollars nets vont au bilan public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lepaul a ouvert de loin, Thomasson a bascul\u00e9 le match, Dia a referm\u00e9 : Rennes bat Auxerre 4-1 et monte sur le podium. Le pari Rennes vainqueur \u00e0 1,48 passe, mise minimale, +12 $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7481,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Rennes &#8211; Auxerre (Ligue 1, J6) : pronostic. L&#8217;AJA encha\u00eene trois victoires mais voyage avec sept absents ; Rennes \u00e0 1,48, mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Rennes","ba_away_name":"Auxerre","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-11 15:15:00","ba_venue":"Roazhon Park","ba_match_key":"api-sports:football:1552781","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"p7lm286rxq0","author_id":4,"market":"Vainqueur (1N2)","selection":"Rennes","bookmaker":"1xbet","market_key":"ml","selection_key":"home","line":null,"odds":1.48,"stake_units":0.25,"stake_amount":25,"stake_amount_forced":false,"potential_gain":12,"potential_gain_forced":false,"status":"won","recorded_at":"2026-10-08 19:14:45","settled_at":"2026-10-11 17:15:06","probability":0.67,"p_market":0.6611,"p_used":0.6656,"edge":-0.015,"market_margin":0.0578,"market_books":8,"closing_odds":1.5,"p_close":0.6574,"clv":-0.027,"stake_rule":"min_no_value"}],"footnotes":""},"ba_sport":[19,50],"class_list":["post-6289","ba_match","type-ba_match","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","ba_sport-football","ba_sport-ligue-1"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rennes &#8211; Auxerre : l&#8217;AJA \u00e0 sept absents, deux visites sans perdre au Roazhon Park &#183; Bankroll Atlas<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Rennes &#8211; Auxerre (Ligue 1, J6) : pronostic. 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