{"id":7165,"date":"2026-10-11T11:40:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T09:40:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/medvedev-svrcina-le-russe-revient-de-pekin-et-la-cote-de-116-dit-deja-tout\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T13:11:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T11:11:45","slug":"medvedev-svrcina-pronostic-2026-10-12","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/tennis\/atp\/medvedev-svrcina-pronostic-2026-10-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Medvedev &#8211; Svrcina : le Russe revient de P\u00e9kin, et la cote de 1,16 dit d\u00e9j\u00e0 tout"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Le 5 octobre \u00e0 P\u00e9kin, en demi-finale du China Open, Daniil Medvedev a frapp\u00e9 une balle vers les tribunes ; elle a touch\u00e9 un spectateur \u00e0 l&#8217;\u0153il, et le Russe a \u00e9t\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.com\/Sports\/wireStory\/medvedev-advances-shanghai-match-china-open-disqualification-137153534\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">disqualifi\u00e9<\/a>, priv\u00e9 des gains de sa semaine p\u00e9kinoise, que la presse chiffre entre 220 000 et 285 000 $. Il a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 ses excuses et parl\u00e9 d&#8217;un accident. Samedi \u00e0 Shanghai, pour son <a href=\"https:\/\/en.rolexshanghaimasters.com\/en\/media\/news\/jodar-medvedev-auger-aliassime-shanghai-2026-saturday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">premier match depuis<\/a>, il a battu Struff 4-6 6-4 6-3 avec 21 aces. Lundi, en troisi\u00e8me tour, l&#8217;attend Dalibor Svrcina, sorti des qualifications, 126e mondial.<\/p>\n<h2>Un qualifi\u00e9 dans la semaine de sa saison<\/h2>\n<p>Dalibor Svrcina joue son <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennismajors.com\/fr\/matches\/atp\/rolex-shanghai-masters\/daniil-medvedev-vs-dalibor-svrcina-2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cinqui\u00e8me match \u00e0 Shanghai<\/a> depuis le 5 octobre, lui qui est entr\u00e9 dans le tableau par les qualifications :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Harris, battu 4-6 7-6(6) 7-5 ;<\/li>\n<li>Nishioka, battu 5-2 apr\u00e8s l&#8217;abandon du Japonais ;<\/li>\n<li>Norrie, battu 6-3 3-6 6-4 ;<\/li>\n<li>Etcheverry, battu 6-3 3-6 7-5, avec dix balles de break sauv\u00e9es sur treize.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Son calendrier d&#8217;automne ignore les pauses : le Challenger de Jingshan, puis Hangzhou fin septembre, puis les qualifications ici d\u00e8s le 5 octobre. \u00c0 24 ans, 126e mondial, le Tch\u00e8que vit la semaine la plus dense de sa saison, et elle le conduit devant le plus g\u00eanant des opposants.<\/p>\n<h2>Medvedev, la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence sur dur de l&#8217;ann\u00e9e<\/h2>\n<p>Le Russe reste le joueur le plus victorieux du circuit sur dur en 2026, 31 victoires pour 9 d\u00e9faites, avec des titres \u00e0 Brisbane, Duba\u00ef et Hangzhou, et huit succ\u00e8s sur ses neuf derniers matchs. Il vise une septi\u00e8me qualification aux ATP Finals depuis le huiti\u00e8me rang de la course. Face \u00e0 Svrcina, il m\u00e8ne <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tennis.com\/tournaments\/rolex-shanghai-masters\/matches\/d-medvedev-vs-d-svrcina-2026-10-12\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deux duels \u00e0 z\u00e9ro<\/a>, tous deux gagn\u00e9s en deux sets en 2025 : 6-1 6-1 ici m\u00eame, 7-6(3) 6-4 \u00e0 Toronto. Son premier match depuis P\u00e9kin a r\u00e9pondu \u00e0 la question de l&#8217;\u00e9tat d&#8217;esprit : un set c\u00e9d\u00e9, deux sets repris, aucun rel\u00e2chement.<\/p>\n<h2>1,16 : le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait le travail<\/h2>\n<p>\u00c0 1,16 chez Unibet, le prix donne plus de 85 % de chances \u00e0 Medvedev ; j&#8217;arrive au m\u00eame chiffre. Svrcina, ouvert \u00e0 5,50, cote aujourd&#8217;hui 6,00 chez Betano. Le programme du lundi est officiel : ce match arrive en troisi\u00e8me rotation sur le Grandstand 2, un court ext\u00e9rieur sans toit, derri\u00e8re Tien&#8211;Ruud puis Lehecka&#8211;Jodar. Des averses restent \u00e9voqu\u00e9es sur Shanghai ; si elles tombent, ce match attendra, et la hi\u00e9rarchie de ce duel ne changera pas.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Medvedev \u00e0 1,16, mise minimale<\/h2>\n<p>Je prends Medvedev vainqueur \u00e0 1,16 chez Unibet, 0,25 unit\u00e9, la mise minimale : \u00e0 ce prix, ma lecture et celle du march\u00e9 co\u00efncident, et il n&#8217;y a pas d&#8217;avantage net \u00e0 d\u00e9fendre. 25 $ engag\u00e9s pour 4 $ de gain net si le Russe passe, 25 $ perdus si Svrcina sort l&#8217;exploit. Le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> dit la m\u00eame chose : quand une cote a d\u00e9j\u00e0 tout int\u00e9gr\u00e9, la m\u00e9thode plafonne en bas. Ce pari rejoint le <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu. 18+ : ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>6-2, 6-3 : Medvedev sans set perdu, comme en 2025<\/h2>\n<p>Score final : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.livescore.com\/en\/tennis\/atp-1000\/shanghai-rolex-masters\/daniil-medvedev-vs-dalibor-svrcina\/1904818\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Medvedev bat Svrcina 6-2, 6-3<\/a>, lundi sur le Grandstand 2. Le Tch\u00e8que a tenu un jeu, le premier ; le Russe a pris les cinq suivants, deux breaks compris, et la premi\u00e8re manche 6-2. La deuxi\u00e8me a suivi le m\u00eame dessin : break d&#8217;entr\u00e9e, 5-1, un break repris (3-5), 6-3. Troisi\u00e8me duel, troisi\u00e8me victoire en deux sets, apr\u00e8s le 6-1 6-1 d&#8217;ici en 2025 et le 7-6 6-4 de Toronto ; le cinqui\u00e8me match en huit jours du Tch\u00e8que s&#8217;arr\u00eate l\u00e0, au troisi\u00e8me tour.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari passe : Medvedev vainqueur \u00e0 1,16 chez Unibet, mise minimale de 0,25 unit\u00e9, plus 4 $ pour 25 $ engag\u00e9s. \u00c0 ce prix, il n&#8217;y avait pas d&#8217;avantage net \u00e0 d\u00e9fendre, et le match l&#8217;a confirm\u00e9 : la cote avait encore baiss\u00e9 au coup d&#8217;envoi, \u00e0 1,13. La mise minimale fait ce qu&#8217;elle dit : elle borne le gain d&#8217;un pari que le march\u00e9 avait d\u00e9j\u00e0 lu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Medvedev a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 Svrcina en deux sets, 6-2, 6-3, comme ses deux duels de 2025 ; mon pari Medvedev \u00e0 1,16, mise minimale, passe : plus 4 $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":7775,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Pronostic Medvedev \u2013 Svrcina, 3e tour de Shanghai : le retour apr\u00e8s P\u00e9kin, le parcours du qualifi\u00e9 et mon pari Medvedev \u00e0 1,16, mise minimale.","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-noindex":"","_yoast_wpseo_meta-robots-nofollow":"","_yoast_wpseo_canonical":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_opengraph-image-id":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image":"","_yoast_wpseo_twitter-image-id":"","ba_home_name":"Daniil Medvedev","ba_away_name":"Dalibor Svrcina","ba_kickoff_utc":"2026-10-12 09:25:00","ba_venue":"Shanghai","ba_match_key":"api-tennis:tennis:12169843","ba_featured":false,"ba_admin_touch":"","ba_picks":[{"id":"pdj1vv0dvds","author_id":6,"market":"Vainqueur du match","selection":"D. 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