{"id":8473,"date":"2026-10-14T20:36:44","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T18:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/fenerbahce-a-mis-99-points-a-zalgiris-le-partizan-arrive-sans-willis-ni-marinkovic\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T22:15:54","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T20:15:54","slug":"fenerbahce-partizan-pronostic-2026-10-15","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/basket\/euroleague\/fenerbahce-partizan-pronostic-2026-10-15\/","title":{"rendered":"Fenerbahce a mis 99 points \u00e0 \u017dalgiris, le Partizan arrive sans Willis ni Marinkovic"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Quatre victoires en cinq matches, et un collectif au complet<\/h2>\n<p>Quatre-vingt-dix-neuf points. Fenerbahce a r\u00e9gl\u00e9 son compte \u00e0 \u017dalgiris mardi soir \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00dclker Spor ve Etkinlik Salonu, <a href=\"https:\/\/ground.news\/article\/fenerbahce-defeated-zalgiris-kaunas-the-yellow-blues-secured-a-99-80-victory\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">99-80<\/a>, pour sa quatri\u00e8me victoire en cinq journ\u00e9es d&#8217;EuroLeague. Shane Larkin \u00e9tait disponible, un seul absent c\u00f4t\u00e9 turc, Onuralp Bitim. Jeudi, le m\u00eame gymnase re\u00e7oit un Partizan sorti battu du duel contre le Panathina\u00efkos, et qui a boucl\u00e9 mercredi une s\u00e9ance ouverte avant de prendre l&#8217;avion pour Istanbul.<\/p>\n<p>L&#8217;histoire r\u00e9cente penche du m\u00eame c\u00f4t\u00e9 : Fenerbahce a gagn\u00e9 les deux duels de la saison 2025-26, 81-78 \u00e0 domicile le 25 f\u00e9vrier et 99-87 \u00e0 Belgrade, et quatre des cinq derni\u00e8res confrontations. Aucun de ces matches ne s&#8217;est d\u00e9cid\u00e9 au-del\u00e0 de douze points d&#8217;\u00e9cart. C&#8217;est \u00e9crit noir sur blanc, et c&#8217;est pour \u00e7a que je regarde la marge de pr\u00e8s avant d&#8217;y aller.<\/p>\n<h2>Pe\u00f1arroya sait ce qui l&#8217;attend<\/h2>\n<p>Le coach du Partizan, <a href=\"https:\/\/ground.news\/article\/penaroja-revealed-who-was-asked-about-fenerbahce-then-spoke-about-reinforcements-thats-not-a-question-for-me\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">en conf\u00e9rence de presse<\/a>, a appel\u00e9 Fenerbahce \u00ab l&#8217;un des clubs les plus importants de la ligue, visant le Final Four \u00bb et renvoy\u00e9 les questions de renforts \u00e0 plus tard : \u00ab pas une question pour moi \u00bb. Son effectif, lui, arrive r\u00e9duit, et pour de bon.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Derek Willis (cheville), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/euroleague\/news\/euroleague-injury-report-round-4-el2627\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">forfait jusqu&#8217;\u00e0 fin octobre<\/a>, reste absent au <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/en\/euroleague\/news\/injury-report-round-5-el2627\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bulletin de la 5e journ\u00e9e<\/a>, le dernier publi\u00e9.<\/li>\n<li>Vanja Marinkovic (tendon d&#8217;Achille) y figure toujours absent, dur\u00e9e ind\u00e9termin\u00e9e.<\/li>\n<li>Lamar Stevens, incertain en d\u00e9but de semaine, est annonc\u00e9 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euroleaguebasketball.net\/en\/euroleague\/news\/injury-report-round-5-el2627\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">disponible dans ce m\u00eame bulletin<\/a> ; celui de la 6e journ\u00e9e n&#8217;est pas encore publi\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>\u00c0 1,18, le vainqueur n&#8217;apprend rien ; la marge, si<\/h2>\n<p>Le march\u00e9 a tout lu : Fenerbahce s&#8217;affiche \u00e0 1,18 chez BetMGM, en baisse depuis une ouverture \u00e0 1,21. \u00c0 ce prix, je passe. La ligne principale du handicap, -11,5, se paie 1,92\/1,97, et le total du match, 165 points, donne le rythme de croisi\u00e8re que les bookmakers attendent des Turcs. Je cherche la marge, une ligne en dessous, et un prix qui garde un sens.<\/p>\n<h2>Mon pari : Fenerbahce -10,5 \u00e0 1,82<\/h2>\n<p>Je veux la marge, pas le vainqueur. Fenerbahce -10,5, pris \u00e0 1,82 chez Betano mercredi soir. Je donne 57 % \u00e0 une victoire d&#8217;au moins onze points, contre 53,5 % pour la ligne m\u00e9diane du march\u00e9 : un \u00e9cart r\u00e9el, mais \u00e9troit. Le site recoupe mon estimation avec celle du march\u00e9 et l&#8217;amincit encore : mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9, soit 25 $. Concr\u00e8tement : victoire par onze points ou plus, +20,50 $ nets ; tout autre sc\u00e9nario, 25 $ perdus. Prolongations comprises.<\/p>\n<p>Ce qui me retient d&#8217;y aller plus fort : les deux derniers duels se sont jou\u00e9s \u00e0 trois et douze points. Un Partizan r\u00e9duit tient trente minutes ; la rotation turque, elle, n&#8217;a pas de trous \u00e0 boucher. Sans Stevens, la marge se fait ; avec lui, elle se dispute. Pour doser la mise selon votre propre lecture, le <a href=\"\/fr\/outils\/calculateur-kelly\/\">calculateur de Kelly<\/a> fait le calcul, et chaque r\u00e9sultat de ce pari rejoindra mon <a href=\"\/fr\/bilan\/\">bilan public<\/a>, gagn\u00e9 ou perdu.<\/p>\n<p>18+. Ne misez que ce que vous pouvez vous permettre de perdre.<\/p>\n<h2>Fenerbahce gagne de neuf, la ligne demandait onze<\/h2>\n<p>Fenerbahce s&#8217;est impos\u00e9 74-65 \u00e0 l&#8217;\u00dclker Spor ve Etkinlik Salonu, sur le sc\u00e9nario que je craignais. Le Partizan a men\u00e9 13-6 apr\u00e8s cinq minutes, Stevens a jou\u00e9, et la marge s&#8217;est disput\u00e9e. Ce duel continue de refuser les gros \u00e9carts : les deux pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents s&#8217;\u00e9taient jou\u00e9s \u00e0 trois et douze points, celui-ci \u00e0 neuf.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 139 points au total, vingt-six sous la ligne de 165, le rythme n&#8217;a jamais d\u00e9coll\u00e9. Fenerbahce s&#8217;est arr\u00eat\u00e9 \u00e0 74, vingt-cinq de moins que mardi contre \u017dalgiris. Un match lent garde les marges courtes.<\/p>\n<p>Le pari est perdu : Fenerbahce -10,5 \u00e0 1,82 chez Betano, la mise minimale de 25 $ par terre. Il fallait onze points d&#8217;\u00e9cart, il y en a eu neuf. Mes 57 % \u00e9taient trop g\u00e9n\u00e9reux, le march\u00e9 en voyait 53,5 % et il a mieux lu ce match : au coup d&#8217;envoi, la m\u00eame ligne se payait 2,05 et la ligne principale du handicap reculait de -11,5 \u00e0 -11. Perte s\u00e8che de 25 $, port\u00e9e au bilan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fenerbahce a battu le Partizan 74-65 : neuf points de marge pour onze demand\u00e9s. Mon handicap -10,5 \u00e0 1,82 est perdu, 25 $ port\u00e9s au bilan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":9081,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Fenerbahce - Partizan : analyse, forme et absents avant la 6e journ\u00e9e d&#8217;EuroLeague. 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