{"id":8535,"date":"2026-10-14T21:10:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T19:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/le-mans-invaincu-a-domicile-recoit-un-toulouse-favori-qui-encaisse-partout\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T23:16:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T21:16:15","slug":"le-mans-toulouse-pronostic-2026-10-16","status":"publish","type":"ba_match","link":"https:\/\/bankrollatlas.com\/fr\/matchs\/football\/ligue-1\/le-mans-toulouse-pronostic-2026-10-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Mans invaincu \u00e0 domicile re\u00e7oit un Toulouse favori qui encaisse partout"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le Parc des Princes dig\u00e9r\u00e9, la MMArena attend<\/h2>\n

Samedi, le Mans a c\u00e9d\u00e9 au Parc des Princes<\/a>, 1-3, face \u00e0 la seconde vague parisienne. De retour au MMArena, que le club appelle d\u00e9sormais Stade Marie-Marvingt, le promu retrouve l’endroit o\u00f9 il n’a pas perdu : 2-1 contre Lorient, 2-2 contre Lens. Quatorzi\u00e8me avec six points, il re\u00e7oit un Toulouse quinzi\u00e8me, aussi \u00e0 six points et \u00e0 la m\u00eame diff\u00e9rence de buts, -2.<\/p>\n

Patrick Videira, l’entra\u00eeneur mont\u00e9 deux fois de la National \u00e0 la Ligue 1, consacre sa semaine \u00e0 cette r\u00e9ception depuis lundi. La presse r\u00e9gionale parle de cinq premi\u00e8res journ\u00e9es \u00ab \u00e9tonnantes \u00bb<\/a> pour un promu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\n\u00c9quipe<\/th>\nAdversaire<\/th>\nComp\u00e9tition<\/th>\nScore<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
10 oct.<\/td>\nLe Mans<\/td>\nParis SG (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2 oct.<\/td>\nLe Mans<\/td>\nGuingamp (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\namical<\/td>\n1-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19 sept.<\/td>\nLe Mans<\/td>\nLorient (domicile)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n2-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13 sept.<\/td>\nLe Mans<\/td>\nLens (domicile)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5 sept.<\/td>\nLe Mans<\/td>\nNice (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n1-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10 oct.<\/td>\nToulouse<\/td>\nMonaco (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 oct.<\/td>\nToulouse<\/td>\nPAU (domicile)<\/td>\namical<\/td>\n2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19 sept.<\/td>\nToulouse<\/td>\nLe Havre (domicile)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n3-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12 sept.<\/td>\nToulouse<\/td>\nLorient (ext\u00e9rieur)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n2-2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3 sept.<\/td>\nToulouse<\/td>\nLille (domicile)<\/td>\nLigue 1<\/td>\n0-1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Sans Bourabaa, le Mans perd son relais de contre<\/h2>\n

Adil Bourabaa manque vendredi : cheville, trois buts et deux passes en cinq matches, et une absence de \u00ab plusieurs semaines \u00bb<\/a> annonc\u00e9e par la presse alg\u00e9rienne, que le club n’a pas confirm\u00e9e. \u00c0 mes yeux, c’est lui le relais des sorties rapides mancelles : quand le bloc r\u00e9cup\u00e8re, la relance passe par ses pieds. Le onze officiel a tranch\u00e9 : S. Yohou, L. Buad\u00e9s et D. Sidib\u00e9, les trois incertains de la veille, sont titulaires ; E. Colas et M. Rossignol manquent \u00e0 l’appel.<\/p>\n

Toulouse a le jeu, jamais le z\u00e9ro<\/h2>\n

Sorti d’un 2-2 \u00e0 Monaco samedi, Toulouse a marqu\u00e9 sept buts et encaiss\u00e9 neuf depuis la reprise, sans une seule rencontre sans but encaiss\u00e9. Le capitaine Rasmus Nicolaisen (mollet), donn\u00e9 de retour<\/a> en d\u00e9but de semaine, et M. McKenzie (pied), les deux doutes toulousains de la veille, sont eux aussi de la partie ; la promesse d’Askou, \u00ab tous ses joueurs \u00e0 disposition \u00bb, est tenue.<\/p>\n

Toulouse favori l\u00e9ger, et le march\u00e9 l’a bien lu<\/h2>\n

Toulouse s’affiche \u00e0 2,40, le Mans \u00e0 3,11, le nul \u00e0 3,70 au relev\u00e9 de jeudi. \u00c0 1,646 pour Le Mans ou nul, le march\u00e9 promet un peu moins de 60 % de chances \u00e0 ce sc\u00e9nario ; je l’\u00e9value \u00e0 62. L’\u00e9cart est trop fin pour parler d’avantage, et la double chance a m\u00eame gliss\u00e9 \u00e0 1,642 jeudi.<\/p>\n

Mon pari : Le Mans ou nul<\/h2>\n

Je prends la double chance Le Mans ou nul \u00e0 1,646 chez 1xbet mardi, temps r\u00e9glementaire. Le Mans gagne ou fait nul : 16,15 $ nets pour 25 $ mis\u00e9s ; une victoire toulousaine perd la mise. Le pari gagne si le Mans tient son bloc \u00e0 la maison comme contre Lorient et Lens, et si la d\u00e9fense toulousaine attend toujours son premier match sans but encaiss\u00e9. Il perd si Toulouse contr\u00f4le la rencontre et que le Mans, priv\u00e9 de Bourabaa, ne trouve plus qui lancer les contres. Les compositions ne changent rien au pari : aucune absence surprise, Bourabaa reste la seule perte qui p\u00e8se.<\/p>\n

Ma probabilit\u00e9 d\u00e9passe celle du march\u00e9 de trois points : mise minimale, 0,25 unit\u00e9. Le calculateur de Kelly<\/a> montre comment la mise suit la conviction. Mes pronostics pass\u00e9s, gagn\u00e9s comme perdus, sont sur le bilan public<\/a>. 18+, ne misez que ce que vous pouvez perdre.<\/p>\n

Le Mans muet, la premi\u00e8re cage ferm\u00e9e est pour Toulouse<\/h2>\n

Toulouse s’est impos\u00e9 3-0 \u00e0 la MMArena, premi\u00e8re d\u00e9faite \u00e0 domicile du promu. Le match a tenu une mi-temps : 0-0 \u00e0 la pause, et Mafouta et Vercruysse avaient m\u00eame inqui\u00e9t\u00e9 Restes (11e, 13e), comme le rel\u00e8ve le compte rendu d’actu.fr<\/a>. Tout s’est d\u00e9li\u00e9 au retour des vestiaires : D\u00f6nnum a lanc\u00e9 Russell-Rowe (46e), puis marqu\u00e9 lui-m\u00eame (59e) ; Tengstedt a conclu (87e), apr\u00e8s un but annul\u00e9 pour hors-jeu (75e).<\/p>\n

Le pari est tomb\u00e9 sur le seul sc\u00e9nario qui le condamnait : une victoire toulousaine. Le Mans ou nul \u00e0 1,646 chez 1xbet est perdu, 25 $ port\u00e9s au bilan. Mon 62 % \u00e9tait trop haut : la d\u00e9fense toulousaine a ferm\u00e9 sa premi\u00e8re cage de la saison, et le Mans priv\u00e9 de Bourabaa n’a pas trouv\u00e9 qui lancer les contres. Le sc\u00e9nario que je donnais perdant est celui qui s’est jou\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Toulouse a battu Le Mans 3-0 \u00e0 la MMArena, premi\u00e8re d\u00e9faite \u00e0 domicile du promu. Mon Le Mans ou nul \u00e0 1,646 est perdu, 25 $ port\u00e9s au bilan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9431,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Le Mans - Toulouse : mon pronostic de Ligue 1. 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